- We already have the guy who was #2 in bWAR last year (Ryu) and #1 is not available (Bieber). Most of the top 10 are not available (with wealthy teams, or many years from free agency). Always tough, but lets dig into cheaper teams who might be dumping
- Oakland: Chris Bassitt was their ace but is entering his age 32 season, has 2 years of control left so Oakland might be tempted to sell high. 181 ERA+ last year 114 lifetime 2.4 BB/9 7.9 K/9 last year both better than his career (3.2 & 7.8). He missed 2017 and most of 2016/18 due to Tommy John surgery. Looks like a good guy to chase but Oakland would be asking a lot I'm certain.
- Texas: dead last in 2020, should clear out vets to rebuild - Lance Lynn signed only for 2021 for just over $9 mil. Entering his age 34 season he led the league in IP and GS with a 136 ERA+ which was a drop from 2019's 141. An excellent pitcher who keeps moving around (4 teams in 9 seasons). Might be a good target but that low contract will make him more prospect expensive despite only 1 year of control.
- Detroit: was trying to trade Matthew Boyd before last season but failed to and regrets it now I figure as his value dropped a lot with a 70 ERA+ due to a HR jump (2.2/9) and being wilder than normal (3.3 BB/9). 2 years of control left, but Detroit probably won't trade him now hoping to regain some value in the first half then trade mid-season.
- David Price - LA Dodgers don't really want/need him as he was payroll relief for Boston so LA could get Betts. Skipped 2020, now entering his age 35 season with just 2 years left on his big deal. $32 mil each year but $16 mil paid by the Red Sox. Since he pitched here in 2015 he has had a 112 or better ERA+ every season. This might be a good target to chase as he could be an ace, he liked his time here last time, and with just 2 years on the deal and being surplus in LA (their starting 5 had ERA's of 3.44 and down with each getting 8+ starts) the price shouldn't be too high.
Really, I'm not seeing a ton of players out there who are strong trade targets. Most teams who aren't contenders don't have near free agent pitchers who are high end, nor are there a ton of ugly contracts attached to good pitchers.
So the best targets I see are 1) Bauer if the Jays are willing to do whatever it takes to get the best, 2) Tanaka still dang good and should be a lot cheaper, #3) David Price who the Dodgers might be wanting to dump at this point as he is pure surplus. After that comes Walker, Morton, Minor, etc. My money is on a free agent, not a trade. But dang does Price look tempting depending what the Dodgers think of him after a year off. I figure one of those 3 and Walker to go with Ryu, Roark (could be dumped), Ray, Stripling (could see Ray/Stripling as a combined team), and then comes whoever they acquire plus Pearson and others. Getting 2 more would be ideal, then Pearson can be in AAA to start 2021, Roark can be dumped if needed, Ray/Stripling could be a tandem team (neither has shown enough to be handed a rotation slot, but either could do the job potentially).