Blue Jays 2014 Top Prospects: 30-21

Monday, October 27 2014 @ 08:00 AM EDT

Welcome to the Batter's Box Top 30 Blue Jay prospects for 2014. Five of your trusted minor league correspondents pooled their votes to come up with the list. The same trusty five shared the task of writing the prospect descriptions you see below. Come back tomorrow for numbers 20 through 11.

There is turnover from 2013. Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins have all graduated. Aaron Sanchez still qualifies as he was called up in mid-July, giving him less than 45 days service before September. Tom Robson, Clinton Hollon and Adonys Cardona were injured and didn't pitch enough to make it on this year's list. Kenny Wilson and Deck McGuire were traded. They make room for a new crop of exciting prospects who shot onto the scene in 2014, starting with a holdover at number 30.

Image from ebay.com.

30. John Stilson | RHP

John Stilson had an up-and-down season in 2014. Things were looking up for the 6-foot-3 right-hander when his first seven relief appearances in March produced 8.1 scoreless innings. His final Spring Training audition saw him get rocked for four runs in one inning and that carried over into a miserable April in which he posted a 9.39 earned run average in 7.2 innings with Buffalo. He did earn a save that month but just three of his eight appearances were scoreless.

The native of Texarkana, Texas did a complete 180 in May by stringing together nine straight shutout outings and 10 of 11 overall. That translated in a 1.04 ERA over 17.1 innings with a 21-7 K/BB total. His best outing came on May 4 against Charlotte when he struck out six over three perfect innings to earn the victory. Stilson was 1-0 in June with an ERA of 2.00 over six appearances. He did not give up an unearned run over his first four appearances but was nicked for a run in his last two outings before his season came to an end after a labrum issue in his right shoulder.

Stilson underwent surgery in mid-August and is expected to be out for 6-8 months which put his readiness for the start of Spring Training in doubt. He sent out a Tweet (@JayStilly12) in late September to indicate he was making progress in his rehab and was about to hit the weights.

The BABIP gods were not kind to Stilson in 2014 as International League batters put the ball in play to the tune of .337 - a 69 point jump from 2013. However, his previous BABIP marks from 2012 were .331 and .322 so 2013 looks to be an outlier at this point. He didn’t induce as many ground balls in 2014 as his GB% dipped from 53% to 45%. Still, his K rate remained fairly steady at 8.5 per nine innings, which is in line with his career rate of 8.4/9. However, control problems plagued Stilson as he walked nearly two batters more an inning from 2013. HIs 4.8 BB/9 was also 1.2 walks more than his career mark.

According to various scouting reports, Stilson’s repertoire includes a mid-90s MPH fastball that has reached 97 as well as a power change up and a sweeping slider in the upper 80s that have flashed plus. Catcher Mike Nickeas told BluebirdBanter.com that Stilson has the stuff to pitch in the bigs while Bisons manager Gary Allenson added they have worked with the righty on speeding up his delivery and being a pitcher instead of a thrower.

Now the question is whether Stilson will remain in the Blue Jays organization. Originally drafted by Minnesota in the 19th round of the 2009 draft, the Texas A&M alum has to be placed on the 40-man roster or he will be subject to the Rule 5 draft. The Blue Jays rolled the dice on Stilson by grabbing him in the third round of the 2011 draft and giving him a $500,000 bonus despite a torn labrum in his right shoulder at the time. Dr. James Andrews said Stilson did not surgery and recommended rest and rehab instead. Stilson, who posted a NCAA Division I-best ERA of 0.80 in 2010, will turn 25 on July 28.

Image from MiLB.com.

29. Matt Dean | 1B-3B

Matt Dean didn’t quite match his breakout 2013 campaign but he still managed to keep his head above water in his first full season of pro ball. The 6-foot-3 right-handed hitter batted a respectable .276 in April that included a six-game hitting streak but he began to step things up in May with six multi-hit efforts over the first 10 days which resulted in a .395 batting average for the month. However, he missed the rest of May with a strained oblique. He returned June 1 and found his form again with a 10-game hitting streak to help him land a berth in the Midwest League All-Star Game. His power started to emerge in July as he connected for five home runs and slugged .492. He completed a 14-game hitting streak that started at the tail end of June. He maintained a .300 batting average with a .301 mark as late as July 24 but he wore down in August with a .235 batting average and just one homer.

After putting up an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .436 last season in Bluefield, Dean’s BABIP was still a higher-than-normal .361 with Lansing. His walk and strikeout rates remained stable with both figures dipping just 0.4 percent but he is still striking out once in nearly every four at-bats and walking just less than six percent of the time. Dean spent most of his time at first base but also saw time at third base and designated hitter. However, his future home is expected to be at first base where he projects to a better-than-average defender. He had 14 errors in the field, 11 at first base. Dean did not try his luck on the base paths as often in 2014 as he stole just two bases, down from eight in 2013.

Dean was drafted in the 13th round of the 2011 draft from The Colony High School in Texas and signed for $737,500, the equivalent of supplemental first round money. He overcame a rough 2012 debut with Bluefield by rebounding with an Appalachian League All-Star berth and capturing the R. Howard Webster Award as the Blue Jays top minor league performer in West Virginia in 2013. Baseball America says Dean kept a journal of his at-bats during the season. Surprisingly, he did not get the call to Vancouver and missed out on the Canadians third Northwest League championship.

Dean will be a 22 year-old on December 12. His next minor league stop in 2015 should be sunny Dunedin.

Image from TorontoObserver.ca.

28. Dan Jansen | C

Dan Jansen was one of Bluefield's best players before a knee injury ended his season. Jansen hit .282 in Bluefield, with five home runs, and he controlled the strike zone with almost as many walks as strikeouts. Jansen struck out 17 times in 124 at-bats.

Catching is a tough job for anyone but it is really tough at the lower levels where you are either catching in a game or warming up pitchers in the bullpen. Because of this work load, and because defensive ability and game calling take precedent, it is hard for many catchers to develop fully as hitters. When you do have an offensive minded catcher you hope he can maintain the offensive ability as he moves up in the system.

Jansen hails from Wisconsin. When he was drafted he didn't have the amount of baseball experience that players from warmer weather states do. So to see him hit well, show some power and control the strike zone are all good signs.

Jansen is big for a catcher at 6'2". His body has been compared to Lance Parrish who, in case you are too young to remember, was a very good catcher for Detroit. Early in his pro career the Jays identified that Jansen lacked some of the flexibility that major league catchers need. Since then Jansen has been working on that, using drills and yoga, to improve.

With the time missed due to injury, including instructional league, Jansen is likely to remain in Florida next spring rather than move to Lansing. Catching is a tough job but Jansen is setup to be a good one.

Ball four was an all too common occurrence for Alberto Tirado in 2014. Working as a tandem starter in Lansing to start the season, the Dominican had a 3.60 ERA with a save in April but had issued 14 free passes in 15 innings. He struck out 16 batters in April but when the calendar flipped to May, his one-under/one-over K-BB ratio continued while his ERA shot up to 6.52. The month began with a five inning outing in which he allowed one run to Dayton May 1 but the month ended horribly when he was charged with seven runs over two-thirds of an inning in South Bend May 27. Things did not improve in June when he went 0-1 with a 12.71 ERA over one start and one relief appearance. Total it all up and Tirado walked 39 batters and struck out 40 in 40 innings with Lansing.

Image from MiLB.com.

26. Andy Burns | 3B

Andy Burns burst on the prospect scene with huge numbers at Dunedin over the first half of 2013. That earned Burns a promotion to AA where he had mixed results. But as he came back to AA in 2014 expectations were that Burns would take a jump forward and perform well. That didn't happen. Burns was pretty terrible over the first half of the season, he had an OPS of 555 in April. He did manage to add a hundred points to that in each of May, June and July so that by July he had an OPS of 884. That is prospect worthy. Burns slipped back a bit in the last two weeks of the season to finish August with an OPS of 808. Take those last two months where his combined OPS was 847 and Burns would be be prospect worthy again.

The relevant question then is what is the real Andy Burns? Is he a good field, third base prospect who can deliver an OPS of 750 in the majors? Or is he an inconsistent hitter who is not reliable enough for major league duty? We don't know but 2015 should give us an answer. Burns will still be 24 when the season opens, young enough to make an impression. He should be assigned to Buffalo but if the Jays have to keep a viable, seasoned, Lawrie backup warm in Buffalo then Burns might have to head back to AA. In either spot Burns needs to show that July and August of 2014 are what is to be expected and not just a hot streak.

Image from Sportsnet.ca.

25. DJ Davis | CF 

It also seemed Davis forgot how to steal bases in 2014 as he was caught more times than he was successful. The Wiggins, Mississippi native was 38 of 56 before the season in his minor league career, translating to a 68 percent success rate. His raw speed has been compared to that of Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton but that has not helped his base stealing. Davis' troubles also carried over to the field as he was charged with 18 errors in center field, offset partially by seven assists.

The son of former Jays minor league outfielder Wayne Davis will turn 20 on July 25. He will more than likely be back at Lansing in 2015 where the Jays hope to see a more substantial return on their $1.75 million dollar investment. Will Dylan Jaleel be the real deal? Only time will tell.

Image from MiLB.com.

24. Matt Boyd | LHP

Matt Boyd was selected by the Blue Jays in the 6th round of the 2013 MLB Draft out of Oregon State University.  Matt excelled in his four years at Oregon, putting up a solid 2.04 ERA through 18 starts and 132.2 innings in his 2013 senior season.  Matt signed for an under slot amount of $75,000 and was quickly assigned to Lansing mid-way into the 2013 season. 

Matt was excellent for Dunedin pitching to a 1.39 ERA over 19 starts, with 1.99 BB/9 and 10.22 SO/9.  As well, Matt had a few short up and down stints with New Hampshire in which he struggled to a 6.96 ERA over 10 starts.

Despite struggling in New Hampshire in 2014, expect to see Matt in the Fisher Cats starting rotation in 2015.

Image from MiLB.com.

23. Taylor Cole | RHP 

But, In 2014 Taylor quietly lead the entire minor leagues with 171 strikeouts, spending most of the season in Dunedin, with two starts in New Hampshire.  Taylor is Rule 5 draft eligible this upcoming winter, and the Jays are in a tough situation whether to protect to him or not.  If he were to remain property of the Jays expect him to start 2015 in New Hampshire.  It is also possible that he could be converted to a reliever also in 2015, due to his age and the fact that he is behind several other pitchers in the organizational starters depth chart.

Image from MiLB.com.

22. Anthony Alford | OF

How much do we know about Anthony Alford? We don't know much more than what we knew when he was drafted three years ago. Over those three years Alford has less than 100 at-bats. We do know that Alford is universally described as very athletic and very talented. But how will that pan out?

Alford was drafted with pick number 112 in the 2012 draft. At that time Baseball America said that Alford was considered one of the elite athletes of the class of 2012. They noted his speed as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale and said he also had power potential. Notably Alford has not yet been caught stealing in his limited pro games but he does have 11 steals.

Many were excited by Alford's numbers in Lansing this year. However when you look at those numbers Alford had eight hits and put the ball in play 17 times. That is not sustainable. Alford also did not walk during his stay in Lansing.

As we look ahead to 2015 Alford will be like a top draft pick, almost like a college draftee. Max Pentecost could be assigned to Lansing or Dunedin. Alford would be the same, although I think Lansing would be more appropriate. Alford has yet to prove himself at that level. Alford's trip to Australia for winter ball should get him used to baseball again. That league plays until the end of January allowing Alford to keep going into spring training and his first shot at April baseball. There might be some ups and downs with contact initially but his speed and defense will play while we wait for the bat.

21. AJ Jimenez | C

Excluding his draft year, AJ Jimenez has 1600 minor league at-bats in six seasons. That is an average of 270 at-bats per season. His 2014 total of 313 at-bats is the second highest of his career. So the first thing we know of Jimenez is that he is injury prone. Jimenez did have Tommy John surgery in 2012 and has had lingering elbow issues since then.

The next thing we know of Jimenez is that his hitting seems to be about average for a backup major league catcher. He hit .260 in Buffalo this year with an OPS of .650. That would translate into a major league batting average of .230 and an OPS either side of 600. Backup catchers often develop late and a transition into a starting catcher can happen later still and that development and transition are still possibilities for Jimenez. It is hard to get to the major leagues as a catcher given the wear and tear on the body.

It was surprising that the Jays did not call up Jimenez in September. That suggests he is not under consideration to be the backup catcher in 2015, if he was he would have been called up to listen in on catcher scouting and prep work and to get to know the pitchers that have not come through the system. Is it fair to say the Jays have soured on Jimenez? I don't think so but they may have decided to send him a message by not calling him up. What message would that be? I don't know. They could want him to play through discomfort, to work harder or perhaps they think he isn't ready. Whichever it is, 2015 is the year for JImenez to show he is major league ready.

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