Jay Top Prospects All Time

Friday, October 03 2014 @ 09:56 AM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

With the amazing year we've seen in the Jays minors it got me to thinking about prospects and how the Jays ones have done and what is the best year we've ever seen. Could we currently have the strongest farm in Jays history? Doubtful, but lets do a check.

I did the following comment in one of the threads and it is a good starting point for this...

The minors are looking good. What are some of the best years for the minors? To go unbiased I'll check Baseball America....

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: All-Time Top 100 Prospects (note: different link than I used before) covers 1990 to 2014. For that time frame...

95 players for the Jays made the list (out of 2500 possible). Over that time frame only the Twins (97), Marlins (100), Dodgers (100), Red Sox (101), and Atlanta (126) had more prospects on the lists. The Tigers came in last with 53 which is an achievement given the Rays and Diamondback weren't around from 1990 to 1996 (had farm systems for 1997).
John Olerud was highest ranked (#3 as a LHP and 1B) with other top 10's being Carlos Delgado (twice), Vernon Wells, Alex Gonzalez (twice), Alexis Rios, Shawn Green, Travis Snider, and Jose Silva. Dustin McGowan was highest ranked of current Jays at #18 in 2004 (and #36 in 2003, #48 in 2006, and #98 in 2002)
Somehow 13 times a Jays catcher made the list (Delgado three times, d'Arnaud three times, Guillermo Quiroz twice, JPA, Josh Phelps, Jayson Werth, Angel Martinez, and Joe Lawrence) but seeing those names you can see few stayed behind the plate.
33 RHP, 25 outfielders, 12 SS, 4 LHP (not counting Olerud), 3 1B, 3 2B, and 2 3B.
5 times the Jays had 6 prospects on the list. Using a reverse scale (#1 prospect worth 100 points to #100 worth 1 point) the best year is 1994 with 3 top 10's (Alex Gonzalez #4, Delgado #5, Silva #10, Shawn Green #28, D. J. Boston #66, Paul Spoljaric #99).
The other years with 6 were 1991 (Zosky, Whiten, Karsay, Moore, Timlin, Suero), 1995 (Green, Gonzalez, Silva, Stewart, Angel/Sandy Martinez, Chris Carpenter), 1992 (Derek Bell, Nigel Wilson, Alex Gonzalez, Delgado, Battle, Zosky), and 2004 (Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, Gross, Rosario, Hill). So that mid-90's team actually had a ton of prospects in the system plus they were drafting at an amazing rate then (Halladay, Koch, Wells, Lopez, Rios, McGowan from 1995 to 2000). Boy did Ash and JPR blow it.
2012 was the last time with 4 prospects (d'Arnaud, Norris, Gose, Marisnick), which 2011 has as well (Lawrie, d'Arnaud, McGuire, Drabek). The last 2 years were just 2 prospects each (Sanchez and Stroman both years - a nice pair to have).

So will the Jays have 7 this year? Wouldn't bet on it but they have had a lot of good players.

FYI: the most anyone has had was 9 - Dodgers in 2006 and Royals in 2011. 5 times 8 was reached including by the Red Sox this spring (dang it).

What about earlier than 1990? No BA top 100 lists for then but the Baseball Cube has the top 10 BA prospects for the Jays from 1983 to present (I do love the internet).
1989: 9 of the top 10 made the majors, with significant careers for Derek Bell, Junior Felix, Luis Sojo, Mark Whiten, and Francisco Cabrera with honourable mention to Denis Boucher.
1988: all 10 made it to the majors, careers for Felix, David Wells, Francisco Cabrera (more one big hit in the playoffs for Atlanta), Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Myers, Whitten. #1 was Sil Campusano
1987: 8 of 10 made it, Todd Stottlemyre, Jeff Musselman, Rob Ducey, Glenallen Hill, Nelson Liriano, and Mike Sharperson had decent careers
1986: 7 made it, Kelly Gruber, Sharperson, Fred McGriff, Hill were of note
1985: 7 made it, McGriff, Gruber, Sharperson, Hill, and Wells were of note
1984: 8 made it, Tony Fernandez #1, McGriff, Jimmy Key of note (killer big 3 there)
1983: just 7 made it, Fernandez, John Cerutti, McGriff, and Geno Petralli of note

For earlier years I'll do a check of BR for minor league stats (1982 is based on 1981 stats, etc)...
1982: Fernandez, Jesse Barfield, Mitch Webster,Petralli, Cerutti, Mark Eichhorn, are of note
1981: Petralli, Barfield, Fernandez, Mitch Webster, Eichhorn, Luis Leal jump out at me
1980: Lloyd Moseby, Barfield, Petralli, Ernie Whitt, Eichhorn, Leal, Garth Iorg
1979: Moseby, Petralli, Whitt, Iorg, Danny Ainge (yes, the basketball player), Barfield, Dave Stieb
1978: Barfield (there were others but can only find info for one minor league team, their low A one)

So a few of those years had some pretty good prospects but no idea which were viewed that way at the time (Moseby always was, as was Ainge but Eichhorn wasn't and I doubt Stieb was at first).
Of all the top 10 lists (1983 to 2014) what positions are represented? Using primary position (ie: 3B-2B is listed only at 3B) I get 139 P, 27 CA, 27 1B, 25 RF, 25 3B, 20 LF, 16 SS, 15 2B, 8 CF, 7 OF (DJ Davis, Anthony Alford the most recent ones), 1 IF (D.J. Boston). So the Jays have been very weak at developing CF's it seems as all 8 cases had other positions listed as well (LF or OF) - they were Gose, Campusano, and Marisnick with Wells listed as a LF.

Who showed up the most on the top 10 lists? IE: guys who the Jays probably should've called up earlier or who were very obvious talents very early on.

169 unique players on the list out of the 310 listed
5 times listed: Brandon League, Dustin McGowan, Francisco Rosario
4 times: Aaron Sanchez, Alex Gonzalez, Carlos Delgado, David Purcey, Fred McGriff, Glenallen Hill, J.P. Arencibia, Kevin Witt, Ricky Romero, Shannon Stewart
3 times: Alex Rios, Alex Sanchez, Chris Carpenter, Curtis Thigpen, Daniel Norris, Derek Bell, Eddie Zosky, Felipe Lopez, Gabe Gross, Guillermo Quiroz, Howard Battle, Jake Marisnick, Jose Pett, Jose Silva, Justin Jackson, Mark Whiten, Matt Stark, Matt Williams, Mike Sharperson, Roy Halladay, Russ Adams, Santiago Garcia, Shawn Green, Sil Campusano, Steve Karsay, Tom Evans, Travis Snider, Vernon Wells
2 times: Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Alexis Infante, Anthony Gose, Asher Wojciechowski, Augie Schmidt, Billy Koch, Brad Mills, Brett Cecil, Carlos Perez, Cesar Izturis, D.J. Davis, David Cooper, David Wells, Deck McGuire, Denis Boucher, Ed Sprague, Felipe Crespo, Francisco Cabrera, Jayson Werth, Joe Lawrence, Josh Banks, Josh Phelps, Junior Felix, Kelly Gruber, Kevin Ahrens, Kevin Cash, Luis Sojo, Marcus Stroman, Otis Green, Pat Hentgen, Paul Spoljaric, Roberto Osuna, Ryan Jones, Ryan Patterson, Sandy Martinez, Stan Clarke, Steve Cummings, Todd Stottlemyre, Tony Fernandez, Travis D'Arnaud, Vince Perkins, Zach Stewart
Just once: Aaron Small, Adam Meinershagen, Alberto Tirado, Andy Thompson, Anthony Alford, Anthony Sanders, Antonio Jimenez, Balbino Fuenmayor, Bill Pinkham, Bob File, Brad Emaus, Brandon Magee, Brent Abernathy, Brent Bowers, Brian Cardwell, Casey Janssen, Chad Jenkins, Chris Stynes, Chuck Kegley, Clayton Andrews, D.J. Boston, Dave Shipanoff, David Bush, Dawel Lugo, Dennis Jones, Drew Hutchison, Earl Sanders, Edwin Hurtado, Eric Hinske, Franklin Barreto, Gary Glover, Geno Petralli, Greg Myers, Greg O'Halloran, Gustavo Chacin, Henderson Alvarez, Jack McKnight, Jay Gibbons, Jeff Musselman, Jeff Reynolds, Jesse Litsch, Jimmy Key, Jimmy Rogers, Joe Young, John Cerutti, John Olerud, John Sneed, John Stilson, John Tolisano, Josh Roenicke, Justin Nicolino, Kelvim Escobar, Kevin Batiste, Kevin Sliwinski, Kyle Drabek, Lee Daniels, Marc Rzepczynski, Marcus Moore, Marty Janzen, Matt Ford, Matt Smoral, Michael Young, Mike Timlin, Mitch Nay, Nate Cromwell, Nelson Liriano, Nigel Wilson, Noah Syndergaard, Norm Tonucci, Orlando Hudson, Pasqual Coco, Peter Tucci, Randy Knorr, Ricky Trlicek, Rob Butler, Rob Ducey, Ron Shepherd, Sean Nolin, Steve Davis, Tom Davey, Tyler Gonzales, Tyrell Godwin, Vinnie Chulk, William Suero, Zach Jackson

Clearly being listed multiple times is not a guarantee of quality. Still, lots of really good guys on the 4 time list.

So which prospects became something special over the years? I'd say any of 1000+ hits, 100+ HR, 50+ wins, 100+ saves would qualify as being a successful prospect.

Hitters first... In order of lifetime hits

Fred McGriff: 2490 hits, 493 HR, 886 OPS qualifies easily
Michael Young: 2375 hits, 185 HR, 787 OPS
Tony Fernandez: 2276 hits, 94 HR, 746 OPS
John Olerud: 2239 hits, 255 HR, 863 OPS
Carlos Delgado: 2038 hits, 473 HR, 929 OPS
Shawn Green: 2003 hits, 328 HR, 849 OPS
Vernon Wells: 1794 hits, 270 HR, 778 OPS
Shannon Stewart: 1653 hits, 115 HR, 790 OPS
Alex Rios: 1554 hits, 162 HR, 768 OPS (active)
Orlando Hudson: 1319 hits, 93 HR, 753 OPS
Derek Bell: 1262 hits, 134 HR, 757 OPS
Aaron Hill: 1210 hits, 135 HR, 763 OPS (active)
Alex Gonzalez: 1209 hits, 137 HR, 693 OPS
Felipe Lopez: 1145 hits, 90 HR, 724 OPS
Cesar Izturis: 1103 hits, 17 HR 615 OPS
Jayson Werth: 1061 hits, 171 HR, 838 OPS
Ed Sprague: 1010 hits, 152 HR, 737 OPS
Glenallen Hill: 1005 hits, 186 HR, 803 OPS
Eric Hinske: 947 hits, 137 HR, 762 OPS
Adam Lind: 843 hits, 141 HR, 788 OPS (active and still here)
Kelly Gruber: 818 hits, 117 HR, 739 OPS
Mark Whiten: 804 hits, 105 HR, 756 OPS & 4 HR game
Jay Gibbons: 759 hits, 127 HR, 768 OPS

Noteables...

Greg Myers: 776 hits, 87 HR, 708 OPS but also great for a few years as a catcher
Luis Sojo: 649 OPS but key sub on many of the great Yankee teams
Nelson Liriano: key part of the late 80's teams, might have saved the 1987 season if called up earlier
Junior Felix: inside the park grand slam in his early days, if only he really was just 21 then instead of maybe 31.
Geno Petralli: another catcher 704 OPS
Josh Phelps: looked to be a great prospect as a pure hitter, but stalled out quick still with a lifetime 815 OPS
Mike Sharperson: died while still active, an example of Jimy Williams pulling the plug on a kid just to give an over the hill vet a shot (Garth Iorg)
Travis Snider: still active, could reach 100 HR given his 118 OPS+ this year and 50 lifetime HR (active)
Rob Ducey: best player born in Toronto, raised in Cambridge - sadly I'll never pass him for that status...
J.P. Arencibia: 64 HR, will probably keep getting shots and we all know he won't stop swinging for the fences (active)
Felipe Crespo: the man who cost Roy Halladay a perfect game in his first ML call-up (booted a ball, allowing the only baserunner until the 2 out HR in the 9th)

Pitching in win order... Listing all with 50+ wins

David Wells: 239 wins, 4.13 ERA, 13 saves, released way too soon
Roy Halladay: 203 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1 save
Jimmy Key: 186 wins, 3.51 ERA, 10 saves
Chris Carpenter: 144 wins, 3.76 ERA
Todd Stottlemyre: 138 wins, 4.28 ERA, 1 save
Pat Hentgen: 131 wins, 4.32 ERA, 1 save
Kelvim Escobar: 101 wins, 4.15 ERA, 59 saves
Mike Timlin: 75 wins, 3.63 ERA, 141 saves, saved the first WS win in Jays history
David Bush: 56 wins, 4.73 ERA
Ricky Romero: 51 wins, 4.16 ERA
John Cerutti: 49 wins, 3.94 ERA, 4 saves - close enough to list
Billy Koch: 29 wins, 3.89 ERA, 163 saves

Noteables...

Gustavo Chacin, Jesse Litsch, Steve Karsay, and Aaron Small all had their moments (Small with the Yankees to push them into the playoffs once)
Brandon League, Jeff Musselman, Marc Rzepczynski, Vinnie Chulk, Paul Spoljaric, are all worth remembering in their own ways.
Brett Cecil, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan, Henderson Alvarez are all still building their resumes, some more than others.
Dave Stieb would be high up with his 176 wins but was pre-BA top 10 lists and might not have made them anyways given how fast he climbed (qualified for this list just once, the year he was an OF who had 4 starts in A ball)

So of the 310 top 10 prospects there have been a lot of really good players of course. A few near HOF quality (Halladay, Wells, Delgado, McGriff, Delgado, Olerud, Young, Fernandez), many All-Stars and 'if only' guys. Some reached their peak here, some not until well after their time here.

248 of those 310 did reach the majors. Some are double/triple/etc. counted, but we are just measuring 'if in the top 10 could they make it'. So 80% do reach at some point. Of the 169 unique players 124 reached (73%).

FYI: one of the best, and maybe a HOF'er, produced by the Jays system is Jeff Kent but he never made a BA top 10 list. Go figure. He was in the system in 1990/1991/1992 as well, when the Jays had a massive system according to the top 100 prospect lists.

So tons of talent, but also tons of 'argh' there too. We'll see if the talent this year makes this list more or less impressive by around 2020 I'd expect but we could see guys sneaking into the majors and even having good careers without reaching until well after that.

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