There are 26 weeks in the baseball season, and 20 of them have been
played. Which means - natch - that there are six weeks remaining.
Five
AL teams are going to the post-season, and it's pretty clear that
Baltimore, Oakland, and Los Angeles are taking three of those spots. The
Orioles will win the AL East; either the A's or the Angels will win the
AL West, with the second place team settling for a Wild Card.
Which leaves the winner of the AL Central and the identity of the other wild-card something which we're going to need these next to determine. There are seven teams still more or less sniffing after these two spots, but only three of them - Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - have both the division title or the Wild Card as a more or less realistic possiibility. The other four teams - Seattle, New York, Toronto, and Tampa Bay - are playing for the Wild Card game.
Let's see what's in store for everyone. ESPN's standings page assesses each team a percent chance of making the post-season. We'll use that as our seeding method. With one modification.
1. BALTIMORE (70-52) POFF chance: 92.4%.
ESPN's formula thinks both Los Angeles and Oakland have a better chance of making the playoffs - not that 92.4% doesn't represent a High Likelihood of possibility - but anyway, they're nuts. The Orioles have a 7 game lead on the team closest to them (the Yankees); the A's and Angels have a 5.5 game lead on the team that can overtake them (Seattle.) And at this point, even I would be more worried about the Mariners than the Yankees. The Orioles also have one of the softest schedules of any of this year's contenders - just 14 of their 40 remaining games are against teams with winning records, and those teams - New York and Toronto - are barely breaking even. Oakland and Los Angeles have 10 games remaining with each other.
ROAD (19) - White Sox (3), Cubs (3), Red Sox (3), Rays (3), Yankees (4), Blue Jays (3)
HOME (21) - Rays (4), Red Sox (3), Yankees (4), Reds (3), Twins (4), Blue Jays (3)
2. OAKLAND (73-51) POFF chance 98.6%
The A's have slipped a couple of percentage points behind Los Angeles, but I agree that their chances of winning the division are slightly, slightly better than that of the Angels. The teams have ten games, three series, to play with each other. Six of those games will be in Oakland. Slight edge to Oakland. Their schedules are very similar - but the A's get three games with the Phillies, and the Angels get the Marlins. Slight edge to Oakland. If they haven't settled it during their final meeting, when the Angels visit Oakland - well, the Angels have to go play Seattle while the A's go play Texas.
ROAD (18) - Astros (3), Angels (4), White Sox (4), Mariners (3), Rangers (4)
HOME (20) - Mets (2), Angels (6), Mariners (3), Astros (3), Rangers (3), Phillies (3)
3. LOS ANGELES (72-50) POFF chance 93.9%
See above. The Angels have a lot of road games left - of the other contenders, only Seattle has to play games on the road. The Angels also have to go to Cleveland for a makeup game on one of their two remaining off-days. It's the little things...
ROAD (23) - Red Sox (4), A's (6), Astros (2), Twins (4), Indians (1), Rangers (3), Mariners (3)
HOME (17) - Marlins (3), A's (4), Astros (3), Mariners (4), Rangers (3)
4. KANSAS CITY (68-55) POFF chance 71.7%
It's the longest post-season drought in baseball, and this could be the year it ends. The Royals have been a streaky team: they ran off a 10 game winning streak back in June, and they've currently won 18 of their last 23. In between those two hot spells, they offered up runs of 1-6 and a 1-7. You just don't know with these guys. But the Royals do have what is quite clearly the softest schedule of any of the team's still fighting for a post-season spot. Their biggest edge on the Tigers may be the six games Kansas City has with Texas.
ROAD (19) - Twins (1), Rockies (1), Rangers (3), Tigers (3), Yankees (3), Indians (3), White Sox (4)
HOME (20) - Yankees (1), Twins (3), Indians (3), Rangers (3), Red Sox (4), White Sox (3), Tigers (3)
5. SEATTLE (67-56) POFF chance 71.6%
ESPN seems very confident about Seattle's chances to grab the second Wild Card. I like their chances better than Detroit's, too - but Seattle's lead on Detroit is still only half-a-game. They're actually tied in the loss column. And Seattle has to play 24 of their 39 remaining games on the road. Granted, the Mariners have been the best road team in the AL this year, but still - playing on your home field is an advantage. It's built into the game, even if the 2014 Mariners seem unaware of it. They also have a lot of good teams left on the schedule - only the three AL East pretenders face a tougher schedule over the final six weeks.
ROAD (24) - Phillies (3), Red Sox (3), A's (3), Rangers (4), Angels (4), Astros (3), Blue Jays (4)
HOME (15) - Rangers (3), Nationals (3), Astros (3), A's (3), Angels (3)
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Let's pause here, because this gives us our playoff matchups: Baltimore, Kansas City, and Oakland win the divisions, while Los Angeles and Seattle meet in a Wild Card game.
But there are other contenders and pretenders!
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6. DETROIT (66-56) POFF chance 43.1%
It occurs to me that the Tigers' season somewhat resembles Toronto's. Both teams went on an early tear that pushed them into a big lead; they both went on to play throroughly mediocre baseball for a couple of months and gave it all away. In mid-May, Detroit was sitting pretty with a 27-12 record and a 7 game lead in the division. In the three months since, the Tigers have gone 39-44, but the lead was still 7 games less than a month ago - it was still 5 games just a couple of weeks ago. But it's all gone now. Detroit's front-line pitching is so strong that if they manage to make it to the post-season, they should scare the daylights out of anyone they meet. But I don't think the rest of the staff is going to be good enough to get them there. On the other hand: while Detroit's overall schedule is tougher than Kansas City's, they do have 6 games left with the Royals. The Tigers have kicked Kansas City's butt pretty convincingly in their head-to-head meetings.
ROAD (21) - White Sox (4), Twins (7), Indians (4), Rays (3), Royals (3)
HOME (19) - Giants (3), Royals (3), Yankees (3), Indians (3), Twins (4), White Sox (3)
7. CLEVELAND (62-61) POFF chance 10.1%
Yup, ESPN's formula says that Cleveland's playoff chances, however remote, are still better than New York's. Or Toronto's. Ouch. Although the Indians are further back in the Wild Card chase than the Jays or Yankees, they're closer to the top of their division than the AL East teams. Which is what represents their outside chance - the Tigers continue to sputter along slightly below .500, and the ever-streaky Royals suddenly go streaking in the wrong direction. Cleveland has 23 home games remaining (only the Yankees have more), which is also something to notice. The Indians have the biggest home-road split in the majors. They're one of the best teams in the AL in their own park, and one of the worst when they go on the road. You'd also think that playing 9 of their final 42 against the Twins would help at some point, even if it hasn't helped them yet (5-5).
ROAD (19) - Twins (6), White Sox (3), Royals (3), Tigers (3), Astros (4)
HOME (23) - Astros (3), Tigers (4), White Sox (3), Angels (1), Twins (3), Orioles (3), Royals (3), Rays (3)
8. TORONTO (64-61) POFF chance 8.0%
Not really a
contender at this point. Like Detroit, the Jays were once sitting pretty
- they were 38-24 with a 6 game lead in the division on June 6. They've
played .413 ball since then (26-37), which means they've spent the last
two months playing just like Houston. The Astros, who have played at
this level all year long, have gone 24-38 over the same period. Oh well.
At least we had the Heady Days of May. Like the Yankees above them, and
the Rays below them, the Blue Jays have to play a lot of teams with
winning records in their remaining games. The Jays are 16-7 against
Boston and Tampa, and those two teams account for 15 of the remaining 37
games. But they have losing records against Baltimore and New York, who
they have to play 13 times. Like Cleveland, the Jays have a significant
home-road split. It's nowhere near as extreme as Cleveland's, but it's
there, so playing 22 of their final 37 at home ought to help a little.
ROAD (15) - Brewers (2), Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Orioles (3), Yankees (4)
HOME (22) - Rays (6), Red Sox (3), Yankees (3), Cubs (3), Mariners (4), Orioles (3)
9. NEW YORK (63-59) POFF chance 5.9%
I don't really know why ESPN likes Toronto's chances better than New York's - but in either case, it hardly matters. Neither team is really a contender at this point. The Yankees have 13 games left against Boston and Toronto, and they've played .600 ball (15-10) against those AL East rivals. So that's a good thing for them. But they also have 8 games left with Baltimore, and the Orioles have been whipping the Yankees whenever they meet. As the Bombers are extremely unlikely to catch anyone they need to catch, let us take note that Derek Jeter's last baseball game will be on September 28 at Fenway Park. This is a great big deal, folks. We're not likely to see another shortstop get 3000 hits anytime soon. The last one before Jeter retired in 1917, which suggests that the next one to come along will make his or her debut around 80 years from now. You won't be there, and I probably won't either. That's literally a once-in-a-lifetime player.
ROAD (16) - Astros (3), Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Orioles (4), White Sox (3), Blue Jays (3)
HOME (24) - Rays (3), Red Sox (3), Royals (4), Tigers (3), Blue Jays (4), Orioles (4)
10. TAMPA BAY (61-63) POFF chance 4.2%
Never really a contender at all, which management clearly understands, but the players obviously didn't get the memo. You got to admire that. When the Jays were sitting atop the division at 38-24, the Rays record was the exact opposite, 24-38. Tampa, who had just snapped a 10 game losing streak, then lost another four in a row. That gave them 14 losses in 15 games. They were 18 games under .500, and 15 games back of Toronto. Well, that was then, and this is now. Tampa has gone 37-20 in the two months and change since then. They're not going to catch anybody they need to catch if they want to play into October. But I bet they catch and pass Toronto. They've got 9 games left with the Jays to get it done.
ROAD (19) - Blue Jays (6), Orioles (4), Red Sox (3), Indians (3), Yankees (3)
HOME (19) - Tigers (3), Red Sox (4), Yankees (3), Orioles (3), White Sox (3), Blue Jays (3)
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20140818031818555