Blue Jays Roundtable Preview 2013

Tuesday, April 02 2013 @ 11:11 AM EDT

It's finally Opening Day in Toronto. That means it's time for everyone to make some predictions about how this year's edition of the Jays will fare...

Many of the Blue Jays’ hitters have high ceilings, but come with built-in risks: hamstrings on turf, career-year regression, PED question marks, general wallbanging, recent suckage, wrist concerns, and so on. Are there any particular players you strongly expect to live up to their most optimistic projections?

• #2JB: I’m confident Joey Bats will bounce back and hit about 40 bombs this season. I know it’s been said a gazillion times that Spring Training stats mean nothing but I think Cabrera will do alright, and I liked the way Lind came on last September and he has carried it over this spring. Hopefully Chad Mottola can work his magic with him and he can regain something close to his 2009 form.
• Gerry: It’s a free agent year for Josh Johnson, I expect Johnson to have a big year looking for that payday.  I am also optimistic on JP Arencibia.  We have seen that catchers often do not hit well through their first few years as they focus on the defensive side of their job.  JPA should be past that now and I expect him to put up his best offensive numbers yet.  They won’t be all-star numbers but better than his last couple of years in OBP and SLG.
• John Northey: Bonifacio is my bet - he seems to be a favorite of many scouts and members of the team.  Just something about him - the super-utility aspect mixed with speed and his being in his prime.  A great year would earn him a multi-year deal probably (he is a free agent after 2014) so he has the incentive too.
• Obal: #2 beat me to Bautista, so I’ll say Edwin Encarnacion lives up to his new lofty expectations. Half of this game is 90% mental, and I’m pretty confident that moving Encarnacion off third base actually did free his mind. He’s a new man. (Now let’s look into trading a bag of balls for Lucas Duda and installing him at DH, aight?)
• Magpie: Bautista. If he only hits 40 homers I’ll be a little disappointed. I actually feel fairly good about Adam Lind. The bad news is that I think he’s going to do well enough against RH pitching that they let him face a few more southpaws than he should...
• Thomas: One name missing from above is Jose Reyes. Reyes could add some speed and excitement that hasn’t been seen from an everyday player for the Jays in the past few years. Despite the hitters behind him, Gibbons will give him the green light on the bases. The hamstring on turf is clearly a cause for concern, but I think Reyes will post numbers somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 seasons. I’d also add that I’m similarly optimistic about Bautista.
• Dave Rutt: I’m bullish on Gose. I’m also bullish on Gose getting an extended opportunity, so I suppose that means I’m bearish on... someone. Anyway, Gose won’t hit for a high average but speed, a few walks and a bit of power, and premium defense at a key position add up to a valuable player and I think he can do that right now. (Speed and defense, his two best assets, peak earlier than other skills.) Also: can you imagine a line-up with Reyes, Bonifacio, Lawrie, Davis, and Gose? That has to be the fastest in the majors even if Molinas filled the remaining spots. (Edit: oops, there’s a Gose question later on. Meh, this still works.)

• John: Izturis gets me a bit worried, he already has been put into a platoon and might be pushed to 2nd backup infielder by the time all is said and done.  Among more regular regulars I’d say Rasmus - I want him to succeed but it feels like he’ll always be a tease.
• #2JB: Like John, I also have my doubts about Rasmus. He was horrid upon his arrival here in 2011 but I thought he was better with the hickory in 2012 after he had a nice hot streak early in the season. However, his OPS has been exactly .690 both seasons. He knows he has to produce with Anthony Gose breathing down his neck just down the road in Buffalo. I also worry about Lawrie and his ability to stay healthy. I wonder if 2012 is more a true indication of his talent as opposed to 2011, when he set the world on fire.
• Gerry: I am still concerned about Adam Lind, as are a lot of people.  Lind did hit better in the second half of last season but the power wasn’t there.  I think his bat has slowed and I am worried about his power.  You also have to worry in a general way about the bullpen.  Janssen, Oliver, Loup and Delabar all had good seasons in 2012.  The bullpen rule of thumb is that good performances are often followed by weak performances.  Finally, I am pessimistic that Lawrie will be able to play 140 games.  He seems injury prone.
• Obal: For some reason, I’m not expecting too much from Melky Cabrera. He should at least be a solid regular, and there’s no disputing the .340 BA upside; I’m totally on board with signing him up for $8 million. But in my mental projections for how the Jays will hit this year, I have Cabrera penciled in for something like a .275/.330/.400, and if he doesn’t threaten to win the batting title, I think we should all be at peace with that. The Dome isn’t a great BABIP park (and Cabrera was never primarily a power hitter), there is some very tough pitching in the AL East, and regression to the mean is a harsh mistress. I hope I’m wrong.
• Thomas: My answers don’t differ much from above, in that I’m pessimistic about Lawrie’s games played total, but not his performance. I don’t really have much faith in Lind anymore. I agree with Gerry, there will be a couple of the relievers who are guaranteed spots in the pen who will likely regress noticeably.
• Magpie: Rasmus. And while Brett Lawrie may have a Great Leap Forward in him, I don’t really expect to see it this year.
• Dave Rutt: Too obvious to say Romero? I’ll go with Reyes. I don’t have any major concerns, but I just haven’t found myself as excited about a 29 year old with multiple 5+ WAR seasons as those numbers warrant. It definitely seems like he peaked several years ago. 

Anyone you expect to perform just about exactly how everyone thinks they will, on their 50th-percentile ZIPS or PECOTA or pick your favorite?

• John Northey: JP Arencibia - he just seems like a steady ‘he is who he is’ player.  Buehrle for pitchers.
• #2JB: I think Reyes will stay healthy enough and approach something close to last year’s totals, despite playing half of his games on the fake grass of the Dome. On the mound, I will go with Dickey. Most projections have him with 13–16 wins with an ERA in the 3.00–4.00 range.
• NFH: I think Lawrie's Twitter feed will be just as all-caps awesome and brotastic as it was in my imagination before he joined Twitter.
• Gerry: Mark Buehrle and Brandon Morrow have track records without a lot of variability.
• Obal: ZIPS’ .293/.345/.450 projection for La Melaza sounds dead-on.

How will Anthony Gose fit himself into the lineup this year? Will he play an important role on the team?

• #2JB: I think Rasmus still has plenty of rope before the noose tightens and barring an injury, I don’t think Gose will be up anytime soon. I believe the organization wants Gose to dominate with the bat in Buffalo before he makes his way down the QEW.
• Gerry: I don’t believe so.  Gose has work to do to improve his hitting and that work will take most of the year, even if Rasmus struggles.
• John Northey: Gose will be important, but not until 2014.  My gut says Bonifacio takes over in CF at some point with Rasmus being part of a trade for a better second baseman, with Gose taking over in CF in 2014 and Bonifacio back to super-utility.
• Obal: Gose has shown a remarkable ability to adapt to new levels in a hurry. It’s a pretty standard pattern: he gets blown away at first and strikes out a ton, he figures it out, he starts raking. I think he’ll be pounding on the door pretty early. You’d think an alignment with Gose in center, Rasmus in a corner and Cabrera at DH would make plenty of sense.
• Thomas: Not over the course of the season, but I could see Gose proving to be a valuable addition in September and maybe August as a fourth outfielder, fill-in and defensive replacement.
• Magpie: Let’s see what he does in Buffalo.

How confident are you in the Jays’ depth? If they run into a rash of early injuries, are you at peace with the organization’s ability to find acceptable replacements?  

• #2JB: Losing the likes of Bobby Wilson, Guillermo Moscoso, Russ Canzler, David Herndon and Scott Cousins really hurts. In all seriousness, I have no idea. The club has signed a lot of players to stash away in Buffalo but I can’t say there’s a lot of them I would like to see called up save for Gose, Luis Jimenez — a poor man’s David Ortiz who I saw in Tacoma and Seattle late last year — and Ryan Goins, who has been wearing #2 this spring. Let’s hope good karma is on the way in 2013 on the injury front.
• Thomas: A rash may be difficult, but I think the Jays are well positioned to cover for an injury or two. Shortstop would clearly be difficult to cover on a more sustained basis, but between Bonifacio and Izturis, the Jays have much better depth to survive a Lawrie injury than before. Davis, Bonifacio or Gose can cover for an outfield injury. The Jays may be in trouble if they’re forced to turn to their 7th or 8th starters, but what team wouldn’t be?
• Gerry: I think most of the Jays depth is on the major league roster.  Bonifacio, Izturis, Davis and DeRosa can cover most positions on the diamond.  In Buffalo the Jays have a half dozen relievers with major league experience and it’s easy to call up the one who is pitching well.  The risk is in the rotation and a lot of that depends on whether Romero can find his delivery in April.
• John Northey: Depth is useful, as seen by Happ being here to take over when Romero forgot where the strike zone was.  Bonifacio (gee I am mentioning him a lot) gives the Jays depth across the board in the field.  Many players AA signed can hop around the field - Izturis can cover 3B/SS/2B, DeRosa 3B/SS/2B/OF/1B, even guys signed to AAA deals can cover multiple spots (LaRoche 3B/2B/SS/1B/LF - has even pitched twice in the minors).  Don’t underestimate the value of that - it means that often guys called up will only be backups instead of everyday guys during periods of injury/ineffectiveness.
• Magpie: I think they can patch and fill for anyone for a short time (up to a month.) Still, they might be well advised to shake the glove tree just in case Reyes’ hammies start hurting. Oh - and except Bautista. He is the team’s Indispensable Man.
• Dave Rutt: I think depth is a pretty big concern, simply by virtue of the team having more star-level players than in previous year. Replacing a 2 WAR player for a month doesn’t affect the bottom line much, but the team just has way more potential 4-5 WAR than they have for a long time. It’s the inherent risk of having stars (look at Boston last year), but it’s a risk you take, obviously.

R.A. Dickey: Ace who revolutionizes pitching for the 21st century? Reliable veteran starter? Total fraud?

• #2JB: I will go with reliable veteran starter. Matching 2012 will be a tough act to follow and he will now be pitching in the tougher league. On the other hand, the AL will not be as familiar with his knuckler. I think 14–15 victories a season, 200-plus innings and an ERA around 3.50 would be more than acceptable.
• NFH: In Slaughtergarde, my fake stat Fantasy League, Dickey is one of the leaders in the Luck statistic. Since my statistics are all worthless, this proves he is legitimate. (Or maybe not: I drafted Donnie Veal because he excelled in the Luck stat in 2012, and who the hell is Donnie Veal?)
• [Editor’s note: Donald “Donnie” Veal (pronounced like the meat) is a lefty reliever on the White Sox. He basically rules. A Mississippi native, Veal was once the Cubs’ top prospect. He went bust because he couldn’t find the strike zone, got Rule 5’d by Pittsburgh, went through Tommy John, and resurfaced last September on the South Side, whereupon for 13 innings he obliterated everything in his path. He has a jerky, crossfire, totally unrepeatable delivery, and lands differently every pitch. His out pitch is a cartoonish hammer curve that pops up from his funky arm angle, then slams down, hard. He works fast and is really fun to watch. Fortune should favor all this. Veal’s fortuitous excellence in “Luck” suggests that some higher power is guiding the Slaughtergarde rules commission...]
• Gerry: Can I go with high risk veteran starter?  I don’t think you can ever call a knuckleball pitcher a reliable veteran.  The knuckleball can come and go and you hope if it goes it will come back quickly.  I have read Dickey’s book and he has had trouble staying consistent with the knuckleball, I am hoping that is in his past.
• John Northey: Veteran starter to me.  I love knuckleball pitchers (was at Phil Niekro’s first Jays start and cheered him on big time).  But I do know they are hard to predict.  A great sign that JPA proved he could catch him in competitive games during the WBC and that we have 3 other guys who know how to catch him.  He won’t revolutionize pitching as even having two HOF’ers and two HOVG pitchers around at the same time didn’t do that (Hoyt Wilhelm, the Niekro brothers, and Charlie Hough closely followed by Tom Candiotti and Tim Wakefield yet it is still a novelty not a standard).
• Obal: If Dickey’s knuckler is sitting 78 or higher, you guys have absolutely no clue what you’re in for. No. Clue.
• Thomas: Relatively reliable veteran. There will be starts where the knuckler isn’t working, but a full season in the rotation with a mid 3’s ERA would be great.
• Magpie: Closer to Reliable Veteran... but really, really Good reliable veteran. The way Doc was a reliable veteran.

Brandon Morrow took a giant leap forward last year, pitching to a 2.96 ERA in 124.2 innings. Will he keep it up?

• #2JB: Hell yes! He will emerge as the ace, stay healthy, lead the club in victories and be a contender for the Cy Young.
• Gerry: I said above that I expect him to meet expectations.  Expectations would be for some regression, a higher ERA than 2.96.  I would expect him to be in the mid three’s for ERA.
• John Northey: Hrm... I don’t think I’ve ever been a big Morrow supporter... he always seemed like the million dollar arm, ten cent head type but he did do well last year and his FIP the past 3 years was 3.16, 3.64, 3.65 - the worst being his breakthrough year.  Based on that it seems luck on balls in play has been the killer thus I would say a mid 3’s ERA and 15 wins is likely.
• Thomas: Yes, he will. That doesn’t mean he’ll post an ERA in the low 3’s again. However, I think the days of him noticeably underperforming his FIP are over. I’m a Morrow believer if he’s healthy.
• Obal: That’s the big question. Did he do anything differently last year that helped him strand runners and avoid hits? We shall see.
• Magpie: He’s just about got it all figured out, but he needs to stay in the rotation and make around 30 starts.
• Dave Rutt: Remember that 17-strikeout 1-hitter? How about... a 1-strikeout 17-hitter? No wait, that would be terrible. But seriously, there are stats about pitchers who have had games like that and the list is made of Clemenses and the like. Morrow will be great this year.

What do you expect from the other NL imports, Johnson, Buehrle and Happ?

• #2JB: I think Johnson will pitch like a former Marlin (who I refuse to name!) did here in 2008 when he won a career-high 18 games and bolted for free agency. I hope the former comes true for Johnson and the latter does not. Buehrle has been a Kate Upton of consistency when it comes to innings and wins but I worry about his ERA heading north, especially at the Dome. Happ should be a better-than-average number five starter. I liked what I saw of him last year and he managed to average just over a K an inning during his fairly brief time in Toronto. He did finish second in the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year race and he has pitched in the post-season twice, in 2008 and 2009.
• Gerry: big year - Johnson (see above); average year - Buehrle.  I see Happ as a league average or slightly below average starter.  You wonder how successful he will be the more the league sees of him.
• John Northey: Johnson looks hungry for a $100+ million deal so I expect great things.  Buehrle is who he is, the Jim Clancy of this generation of Jays I suspect namely a guy who you pencil in for 200 IP and a 100-110 ERA+.  Happ... I’ve been a believer in him for awhile so lets go with a high 3’s low 4 ERA and 14 wins, holding his slot in the rotation all year.
• Obal: Johnson was one of the best of the best before his injury. There’s no guarantee he returns to full health, and there’s no guarantee he finds the release point again. But if both of those things happen? Look out. As for Buehrle, I'm with the consensus.
  
• Magpie: Buehrle knows exactly what he needs to and how to get it done. Johnson is in the process of adjusting his game, which can be troublesome. Normally the AL East is not where you want to be doing that sort of thing - but the AL East isn’t exactly what it used to be. The NL East might be a tougher division right now - at any rate, I don’t think any team in the AL East is as good as Washington or Atlanta. I’m not sure about Happ - part of me thinks he’s doing it with mirrors, and the league will figure him out.
• Thomas: I want to go against the consensus, but I can’t. It would surprise me to see Johnson miss about six weeks, but pitch very well when he’s in the rotation. I don’t have much faith in Buehrle having a great season, but I think his usual effective self with 200 above-average innings and great defence. I don’t foresee Happ losing his rotation spot due to his performance, per se, but rather than if Romero finds his delivery, the team’s commitment to him and his greater upside will push Happ to the bullpen.
• Dave Rutt: Would it be crazy to call Happ to throw the most innings of the three? Yes, because Buehrle has probably never missed a game in his life. He probably pitched every game in little league until he got to the age where they didn’t let him do that anymore. What was I talking about? Right, Happ. I think he’ll end up being extremely valuable considering the lack of SP depth after him, Romero’s struggles, and unavoidable injuries.

Who are your first choices to plug holes in the rotation, when people inevitably start getting hurt? Is pitching depth a liability?

• #2JB: I would like to see Marcus Stroman here but he still has the bulk of his 50-game PED suspension to serve in 2013. Chad Jenkins would be next. I did like Dave Bush during his first time around in Toronto but his career K rate of 5.4 per nine innings in the AL is a huge red flag and he wasn’t in the majors last year. None of the other names on Buffalo’s roster really excites me. If Ramon Ortiz shows up, you know this season is going in the crapper.
• NFH: No season is in the crapper until Bruce Chen makes a start.
• Gerry: Romero obviously.  Then you are looking at a veteran in Buffalo.  In the second half of the season you might have Sean Nolin or Chad Jenkins or Kyle Drabek.
• Thomas: Justin Germano. The Jays can paper over a short-term injury for a couple of starts with a Triple-A veteran. The worst case scenario is an early long-term injury, which would force the Jays to prematurely promote a youngster, stick with someone like Dave Bush for a while or, perhaps, stretch Lincoln out. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team did the latter if there was an extended rotation absence in May.
• John Northey: I don’t expect Romero back until July or August - he just seems too determined that his problems aren’t that big in interviews and he needs to learn they are that big.  I do fear the rotation as the big backup is already in use.  Lots of second half choices, we just need the current big 5 to stay healthy until then. If a big injury happens watch AA pull off a deal quickly.
• Dave Rutt: With the second-last pick in my fantasy draft, I took Mark Redman. I wonder if he’s trying to get back into the game by having his agent bribe his client’s way onto the ESPN fantasy baseball rankings (he was ranked approximately 4500th)

How should the Jays arrange their bullpen to start the year?

• #2JB: I have all the faith in the world that our manager will know how to utilize the pen, unlike the previous asshat who went rogue. I wonder how Delabar would fare as a closer. His splitter is pretty nasty. I hope Janssen will be ready to go and maintains his K an inning pace. I am skeptical about Darren Oliver improving his ERA for a sixth straight year. He seemed to have one foot out the door before 2011 came to an end. I’m still not impressed what he and his agent tried to pull during the off-season (and please spare me the claptrap that Jeff Frye acted on his own, I’m not buying that bill of goods!).
• Gerry: 9th - Janssen.  8th - Santos or Oliver or Loup. 7th - Delabar or Oliver or Loup.  Others - Rogers, Cecil, Jeffress.
• John Northey: 9th: Janssen option A, Santos option B ala the old Henke/Ward setup but a few notches lower in ‘wow’ factor.  Setup: Oliver/Loup mixed with Delabar and Rogers from the right side.  The rest get used as needed where needed - Cecil and Jeffress.  Don’t be shocked if Cecil moved up at some point and we see either Delabar or Rogers turned into a ROOGY.
• Obal: I just hope that early in the season they follow a Cito Gastonish strategy of letting relievers work their way out of trouble, or through unfavorable stretches of opposing lineups. If that means slightly more danger in the late innings, oh well. You save the bullpen’s energy for the stretch run by limiting total appearances (and warmup tosses in the pen), and you show your relievers that you’re convinced they can dispatch any hitter in any situation. And you exude a swagger worthy of the division favorite, which is what you are.
• Magpie: I don’t really care. It looks like they have at least four relievers of roughly comparable Goodness. As long as one of them’s out there when the game is tight, it’s fine by me. I don’t care which one it is.
• Dave Rutt: By height? Age? I dunno. Gibby’s pretty good at managing a bullpen, or at least that’s what the Globe and Mail told me this morning.

Does this year feel different? Is there really a distinct baseball buzz in Blue Jay territory that hasn’t existed for a while?

• #2JB: Even though I’m out on the Wet Coast, the buzz is definitely here. Even during a Winnipeg Jets game, a “Let’s Go Blue Jays!” chant broke out, even if it was a case of Jets fans mocking the Leafs. The buzz was definitely in Seattle last season with a lot of Jays fans coming down from B.C. The Vancouver Canadians have set attendance records during their two-year partnership with the Jays.
• NFH: As we get closer to opening day, I am getting a lot of baseball questions in Ottawa. Someone here outed me as a Person Who Cares About Baseball. I'd call us "cautiously excited" here.
• Gerry: It feels different now because there are expectations.  But there have been expectations in other years that faded once the season started.  The expectations are higher this year.
• Thomas: While there were expectations in recent years, such as after the Burnett/Ryan signings, there is a palpable difference between the buzz in the city those years and the excitement of this season. Fans weren’t really too disappointed when the Jays missed the playoffs in those years; the Jays were always fighting against the odds in those years. There will be very real disappointment this year. Also, a poor start won’t kill expectations as it has in seasons past. It will dampen the excitement, but not impact the expectations.
• John Northey: Much different - this is more like I remember the 80’s - everyone thinks there is a shot and we’re all dreaming big but need them to prove it so we can fully believe.  A lot like 84 and 85 after the 1983 breakthrough.  This time we didn’t get the on-field breakthrough but a front office forced one instead.  Hopefully this year is more like ‘85 (getting to the playoffs) rather than ‘84 (knocked down a mile early on by another team on a historic streak, almost back into it in June, then far back in the end).
• Magpie: I’m old enough to have actually had Hope heading into a Jays season. But it was so long ago, I can’t quite remember what it felt like.
• Dave Rutt: Uh, duh. I’ve been bragging to everyone I know about having opening day tickets, and even the most ambivalent are vaguely aware that “hey, they’re actually good this year, right?”

How optimistic are you with respect to attendance? What’s your take on the way the team is marketing itself?

• #2JB: I think attendance will be around 2.2–2.3 million. If the Leafs weren’t playing as well as they have been this year, I’d say attendance would be a bit higher. The team’s Winter Caravan and the increased spring training coverage have been huge plusses. I’m not that thrilled with the Stadium Love music on this year’s Sportsnet promos. I liked last year’s promos better.
• Gerry: I think attendance will be between 2.6m and 3.0m.  The higher number will be hit if the Jays contend through the end of the season.
• John Northey: Moved out the GTA and watch TV on tape delay thus miss ads not to mention I have 3 girls so few ads seen on their shows anyways - note to Jays...ads on Vampire Diaries and Pretty Little Liars if you want teen girls to come, Arrow wouldn’t hurt either.  I suspect if they get off to a fast start and the Leafs act like the Leafs (IE: miss the playoffs but that would take a historic collapse now, so perhaps just knocked out quick in the first round) then 3 mil is possible but 2 ½ is more realistic.  It all depends on how the Jays are doing come July 1st and how the media takes it (ie: are they on the front page of the Sun/Star/etc regularly).
• Magpie: I think they’ll be in the hunt, and in mid-summer some buzz will develop. In which case, I can see them clearing 2.5 million.

Do the Jays win the division?  

• #2JB: I really want to say yes but I think they will have to settle for the second wild-card instead.
• NFH: if the Jays are in the playoffs, I don't care how they got there. It is no less "legit" to win the Wild Card.
• Gerry: It is a very competitive division and while the Jays are favourite a couple of bad things, slumps or injuries, could derail them.  I will hedge my bets and say 91 wins and wildcard.
• Thomas: Yes.
• John Northey: Always tough to say...I’ve been the local optimist the past few years but now it gets hard as all the stars seem to have aligned almost perfectly (Yankees losing guys left, right and center while the Red Sox are signing mid-level free agents and Tampa traded away their ace while the Orioles few believe will be much over 500 this year).  I want to say 95 wins with a shot at a Jays record and 100 wins with lots of ‘woohoo’ but 19 years of frustration makes me hesitate and expect the Yankees to do something ‘wow’ (they have missed the playoffs just once since the Jays won it all in 1993) and Tampa to be as they’ve been lately.  Still, I want to dream so Jays win the division and impress in the playoffs and shift the division long term as the Yankees go into the sunset for a long time while the Jays become the beasts of the east.
• Obal: Yes. The Blue Jays avenge their decade of bad luck in close games and proceed to beat their Pythag by 10 games.
• Magpie: The words of Winston Wolf... can’t get them out of my head. I don’t dare predict anything more than second place and a wild card berth.
• Dave Rutt: Yeah!

There you have it. And tonight, it's R.A. Dickey for the Jays and Justin Masterson for Cleveland at 7:07. Play ball.

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