Top 10 Lists Compared

Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 11:52 AM EST

So, we now have Baseball Prospectus' top 10 to go with Baseball America's, FanGraphs, John Sickles, and our own.  How do they compare? 
Note: MLB.com just added in to expand the diversity of the lists.

Rank	Baseball Prospectus	Baseball America	FanGraphs	John Sickels (MinorLeagueBall.com)	MLB.com	Batters Box
1	Travis d'Arnaud, c	Travis d'Arnaud, c	Travis d'Arnaud, c	Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-	Travis d'Arnaud, c	Travis d'Arnaud, c
2	Noah Syndergaard, rhp	Noah Syndergaard, rhp	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Aaron Sanchez, rhp
3	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Noah Syndergaard, rhp	Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+	Noah Syndergaard, rhp	Noah Syndergaard, rhp
4	Sean Nolin, lhp	Roberto Osuna, rhp	Roberto Osuna, rhp	Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade B+	Daniel Norris, lhp	Roberto Osuna, rhp
5	D.J. Davis, of	Marcus Stroman, rhp	D.J. Davis, of	Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B	Roberto Osuna, rhp	D.J. Davis, of
6	Roberto Osuna, rhp	D.J. Davis, of	Daniel Norris, lhp	Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B	D.J. Davis, of	Daniel Norris, lhp
7	Daniel Norris, lhp	John Stilson, rhp	Sean Nolin, lhp	D.J. Davis, OF, Grade B-	Marcus Stroman, rhp	Marcus Stroman, rhp
8	Marcus Stroman, rhp	Daniel Norris, lhp	A.J. Jimenez, c	Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B-	Matt Smoral, lhp	Sean Nolin, lhp
9	Matt Smoral, lhp	Matt Smoral, lhp	Marcus Stroman, rhp	Matt Smoral, LHP, Grade B-	Deck McGuire, rhp	A.J. Jimenez, c
10	Alberto Tirado, rhp	A.J. Jimenez, c	Santiago Nessy, c	A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+	Chris Hawkins, of	Christian Lopes, 2b

Baseball America only listed 10 players, but it was suggested that Norris, Smoral and Jimenez just missed their top 10 so I put them in the 8/9/10 slots to compensate for the 3 guys lost in the Marlins trade.  I just added MLB.com thus some shifts in the rest of the results.

Common players: Travis d'Arnaud is clearly #1 as far as everyone is concerned.  Noah Syndergaard is #2 for 3 and 3rd for the other 3.  Aaron Sanchez claims #2 in 3 cases and #3 in 3 cases.  Roberto Osuna is #4 in 4 cases but BP shifts him to 6th (!) while putting Sean Nolin 4th and MLB.com puts him 5th and Norris 4th.  This is where things get messy.

Guys on all 6...

• Travis d'Arnaud (#1)
• Noah Syndergaard (#2 for 3, #3 for 3)
• Aaron Sanchez (#2 for 3, #3 for 3)
• Roberto Osuna (#4 for 4, #5 for 1, #6 for 1)
  
• DJ Davis ranking between 5th and 7th
• Daniel Norris ranking between 6th and 8th, 4th for MLB.com
  
• Marcus Stroman ranking between 5th (BA + JS) and 9th (FG)

• Sean Nolin: from #4 for BP, missed by BA & MLB.com
  
• AJ Jimenez from 8th to 10, missed by BP & MLB.com
• Matt Smoral: 9th on 3 (BP, BA, FG) skipped by FG + BB and 8th on MLB.com
  

• Alberto Tirado on BP only (#10)
• John Stilson on BA only (#7)
• Santiago Nessy only on FG (#10)
• Christian Lopes only on BB (#10)
• Deck McGuire only on MLB.com (#9)
• Chris Hawkins only on MLB.com (#10)
  

Not bad, 7 guys were common, 3 missed by just 2 leaving just 6 open slots, none higher than 7th where there was a real debate.  Nolin being skipped by BA & MLB.com is the most notable while Stilson betting a 7th from BA is the highest for a single ballot guy, the rest were 10th slot guys other than McGuire at #9 for MLB.com.

Pretty obvious who the top 7 prospects are for the Jays, with Nolin and Jimenez the 8/9 and Smoral the 10th guy.  Big challenge now is who do the Jays lose to other clubs in trades between now and mid-season as they keep trying to move into contention.

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