One of my two favourite books arrived at my door this week in the form of the 2012 edition of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. This year's handbook has added a couple of new wrinkles in evaluating each team's top 30 minor league prospects.
Baseball America has introduced a numerical grade based on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale and a risk factor for each player with safe, low, medium, high and extreme ratings. A numerical grade of 75-80 is for franchise players or number one starters, 65-70 means perennial All-Stars or number two starters, 55-60 grades are for first division regulars, number three starters and closers, a grade of 45-50 are for second division regulars, number four starters and eighth inning relievers and 35-40 grades are assigned to number five starters, utility players/backup catchers and relievers.
For risk factors, "safe" means the player is ready to contribute in the bigs and has shown a realistic ceiling. A "low" risk factor has the player likely to reach his ceiling and become a big leaguer, "medium" means the player still has some tools to sharpen, "high" is for players who are first year draft picks and "extreme" is for teenagers in rookie ball or for players with significant history of injuries.
Down below is BA's top 30 prospects in the Blue Jays system with the accompanying grades and risk factors.
No.# | Player | Position | Grade | Risk |
1 |
Travis d'Arnaud |
C |
60 |
Medium |
2 |
Anthony Gose |
OF |
65 |
High |
3 |
Jake Marisnick |
OF |
60 |
High |
4 |
Daniel Norris |
LHP |
60 |
High |
5 |
Justin Nicolino |
LHP |
55 |
Medium |
6 |
Aaron Sanchez |
RHP |
60 |
High |
7 |
Noah Syndergaard |
RHP |
60 |
High |
8 |
Deck McGuire |
RHP |
55 |
Medium |
9 |
Drew Hutchison |
RHP |
55 |
Medium |
10 |
Asher Wojciechowski |
RHP |
55 |
High |
11 |
Matt Dean |
3B |
55 |
High |
12 |
A.J. Jimenez |
C |
55 |
High |
13 |
Adeiny Hechavarria |
SS |
55 |
High |
14 |
Carlos Perez |
C |
55 |
High |
15 |
Moises Sierra |
OF |
50 |
Medium |
16 |
Dwight Smith Jr. |
OF |
55 |
High |
17 |
Kevin Comer |
RHP |
55 |
High |
18 |
Adonys Cardona |
RHP |
55 |
High |
19 |
Kellen Sweeney |
3B |
55 |
High |
20 |
Joe Musgrove |
RHP |
55 |
High |
21 |
Jacob Anderson |
OF |
55 |
High |
22 |
David Cooper |
1B |
45 |
Medium |
23 |
Michael Crouse |
OF |
50 |
High |
24 |
Marcus Knecht |
OF |
50 |
High |
25 |
Christopher Hawkins |
OF |
50 |
High |
26 |
John Stilson |
RHP |
55 |
Extreme |
27 |
Dickie Joe Thon |
SS |
55 |
Extreme |
28 |
Chad Jenkins |
RHP |
45 |
Medium |
29 |
Christian Lopes |
SS |
50 |
High |
30 |
Roberto Osuna |
RHP |
50 |
Extreme |
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