Starting pitchers are the biggest group in our review and the most subject to change. Invariably by the start of the season there will be a half dozen pitchers on the disabled list including several starters. We will forecast an excess of starters and hope that within that mix we will find five to stick.
Las Vegas
There should be two "priority" starters in AAA. They would be Kyle Drabek and Joel Carreno. Luis Perez is another option but his future role in the majors appear to be that of a lefty reliever so the Jays might take this opportunity to work him out of the bullpen as a reliever. I will assume he slots into the pen for now. Behind those two there are a list of "experienced" pitchers who could start. That list includes Garrett Mock, Aaron Laffey, Scott Richmond, Nelson Figueroa, Bill Murphy and Tim Redding. The starting jobs might come down to who was promised what in return for signing with the Jays. I would guess that Aaron Laffey would be number three on the starting pitcher list based on comments that he is competing for major league starters job in the spring.
Joel Carreno
New Hampshire
Many of the Fisher cat starters are returnees from 2011. Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins and Drew Hutchison were all promoted to AA in the middle of 2011. All should return to start 2012. Ryan Tepera and Asher Wojciechowski look to be at the front of the line to take the other two positions. Wojo spent all of 2011 in Dunedin and while he didn't earn a promotion it was his first year as a pro. I assume the Jays will bump him up to challenge him to get better. The Jays gave Ryan Tepera an invitation to major league spring training. They hope he will use that to show them he is ready for AA. His promotion is not guaranteed but I hear that the Jays want him to grab it.
Chad Jenkins getting in some work
Dunedin
Six pitchers made double digit starts for Dunedin last season. Five of them should be in the AA lineup and Nestor Molina is a White Sock. Therefore the Dunedin starting rotation in 2012 will be similar to the Lansing rotation in 2011. Sean Nolin, Casey Lawrence and Egan Smith should anchor the rotation. A couple of often injured guys, Andrew Liebel and Matt Fields could grab the other two spots.
Lansing
The Lansing rotation will be very interesting in 2012. There will be a combination of young guys with inning limits, pitchers recovering from injury and 2011 draftees without many innings. The guys in each category are:
Young guns, the A team: Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard. These guys are top of the list and will be on the roster subject to spring problems.
The injured guys: John Stilson and Sam Dyson. I hear Stilson is recovering well but Dyson is still an unknown. Dyson had some setbacks from TJ last fall and the Jays backed off on his work. Whether he starts and how much he can throw will be determined in the spring based on discussions with trainers and an evaluation of where he is at in his recovery. Stilson will start as long as he can and as a priority guy although he too could be on a pitch limitation due to his injury history.
The conversion project: Anthony DeSclafani is a college reliever who the Jays will try to remake as a starter in the Marcum, Cecil mold.
The more experienced guys: Tyler Ybarra, David Rollins, John Anderson, Misual Diaz , Zack Breault, Taylor Cole and Jesse Hernandez will be looking for a fifth starter spot or a relief job. Ybarra made it to Lansing to end last season but he could lose out to the guys in the previous lists.
The young guns, the B team: Kevin Comer, Daniel Norris, Jeremy Gabryszwski, Tom Robson, Zak Adams, Griffin Murphy, Deivy Estrada, Adonys Cardona, Joe Musgrove, Mark Biggs, Robertoo Osuna and Jairo Labourt. Those twelve guys could fill two rotations in extended. The battle for Vancouver and Bluefield spots in June will be intense.
Justin Nicolino last spring
Because of the innings limitations for several of the expected Lansing starters the Lugnuts are likely to use a bit of a tandem starter rotation. If three sports were tandem and two were full starters the Lugnuts would have to carry eight starters leaving them with four relievers. However the relievers would not have to work much on the tandem starter nights.
The Lansing starting pitcher job will be one of the most contested this spring. The Jays are deep in pitching and that makes it tough for marginal guys to find a starting pitcher job.
If I had to make a call today I would say that the six tandem starters are Nicolno, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Dyson, Stlson and DeSclafani. Tyler Ybarra and the best of the spring get the final spot.
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