Ricky Romero had on off-night and the Red Sox are a bad team to have an off night against. Hopefully JP Arencibia's wrist will be OK. Jonathan Papelboob does a lot of damage through hitting Jays batsmen, doesn't he?
Forgetting about the game, lets consider some questions:
Do the Jays have a chance?
What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?
You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?
Do the Pirates have a chance?
Details below.
Do the Jays have a chance?
I heard Jim Bowden, former major league GM, talking on the ESPN baseball today podcast today. He was saying that GM's and managers know if there team is out of it. They may say something different publicly but in their hearts they know. So, if you were the GM would you think the Jays are out of it? I think they are, or at least enough out of it to jettison some combination of EE, FF (or San Francisco as my wife calls him), Octvio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Jason Frasor. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't trade those guys and go for it?
What does the future hold for JP Arencibia?
JP got off to a hot start and the concerns about his defense abated somewhat. But his hitting has hit the skids. On TV they blame his hand injury but I am not so forgiving. When JPA came up last year, and at the start of this year, JPA was willing to use the entire field, and he hit some of his early home runs to right. When was the last time he hit the ball with authority to right field? JP also has the biggest dichotomy in his at-bats on the team. Most often JP is hacking at the first pitch. But if the first pitch is a ball, JP often gets more restrained and he has had some long at-bats where he battles the pitcher for a walk.
In May JP was the catcher of the future. Today he could be looking at a backup career if Travis d'Arnaud lives up to his billing. I do think JP is underachieving at the plate, and breaking in as a major league catcher is tough, so there is some improvement in the cards whether it be this year or next.
Do you have JPA penciled in as the catcher of the future?
You are the GM, where would you upgrade the team?
Lets assume that by the second half of next season you expect this to be your team:
C: Arencibia and d'Arnaud
1B: Lind
2B: Hill, assume he has improved to be a league average 2B
SS: Escobar
3B: Lawrie
LF: Snider
CF: Davis/Gose
RF: Bautista
DH: Thames
SP: Romero; Morrow; Drabek; Cecil; Stewart
RP: Zep; Perez; Frasor (say); Camp; Carreno; Alvarez; plus one
How many of those players are above average? To compete with the Yankees and Red Sox you need to have at least six of your starting nine and your five starting pitchers to be above average players, assuming everyone else is league average. As a GM it is easier to get to a team of average players, it's much harder to get a team of above average players. In that lineup Bautista, Romero, and Morrow could be expected to be above league average. Most of the others are too young to know. You could wait it out and hope the kids develop into greatness but as a GM you need to be realistic and know who is going to be great and who is not. Then you need to trade the guys who won't be above average and bring in guys who will. And that leads us to the question:
So you get a couple of calls from other GM's who are rebuilding and they are each willing to trade you an above average major league player. Your trading partner wants Litsch; McGuire; AJ Jimenez; and Hechavarria and he is willing to trade you a plus player. Which position do you want to upgrade?
Do the Pirates have a chance?
The pirates are one and a half games out of the division lead. How can this be. They did just win a series against the Jays but their roster is not exactly overqwhelming. Alex Presley looks like a nice player, McCutcheon can hurt you, but there are a lot of retreads on that roster. Their offense is 22nd in MLB in runs and OBP, 26th in slugging. Their pitching is 21st in WHIP but 8th in ERA. Does that sound like a lucky team?
If I was a betting man I would bet that the Pirates will finish under 500. But they have had so many losing seasons that you can't help but be happy they are not in the basement.
What is your opinion?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20110706204558201