20 May, 2011 - Hit Em Where They Ain't

Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 11:41 PM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

I was at the RC tonight for the Jays win, thanks to a JP Arencibia bomb.  I had excellent seats, thak you vendor, and I had a great view of BJ Upton's ninth inning shot to the wall.  From behind the plate it looked like his earlier home run, I thought it was gone and we were looking at a tied game.  It was a relief to see Davis cruising to the wall watching the ball into his glove.  Upton's hit came after Nix and Arencibia botched a foul pop-up.  Normally that would be Nix's ball but Arencibia was right under it and pulled off at the last minute.

 Ricky Romero battled through seven innings.  I say battled even though he allowed just one run because his control appeared to come and go.  He threw a lot of pitches considering how few baserunners there were.

On the other hand Wade Davis seemed to be throwing the ball down the middle and letting the Jays hit the ball.  There were a lot of first pitch swinging with a lot of fly balls to the outfielders.  Davis did give up three runs but on another night he could have been dinged for a lot more.  From memory he had just two K's.  Davis had thrown around 80 pitches by the start of the eighth.

Juan Rivera got the Jays on the board with a home run off the top of the left field wall.  Rivera had another hit and handled first base smoothly.

Eric Thames doesn't get cheated.  He looks like he has fast twith muscles, although he is not a base stealer, but he looks like he has a quick bat.

Rajai Davis had a chance to drive in  some runs earlier but grounded into a double play.  When I saw the scoreboard and saw Davis had zero home runs I thought, didn't Davis lead the club in spring training home runs?  And didn't tnight here JP Arencibia, not hit a lick in the spring?

BJ Upton had half of the Rays hits.  Evan Longoria's batting average is down to .234, there must be some concern in Tampa land.

What did you see?

 

 

 Minor Leagues

In addition to the Majors, I thought I would take a look around the minors.  The Jays minor league teams have been on a good run recently.  Here are their records and positions in their divisions as of mid-day Thursday:

Las Vegas  22-18; 4GB; 2nd place

New Hampshire 25-14; 1st place, one half game ahead

Dunedin 22-18; 6GB; 3rd place

Lansing 22-16; 1.5GB; 2nd place (in the MWL the top two teams in each half make the playoffs)

These teams have also been on fire recently.  Over the past ten games (again as at mid-day Thursday) their records from LV to Lansing are 8-2; 7-3; 8-2; 5-5; for a combined 28-12.  Not bad.

 

The most surprising of the Blue Jay teams is Dunedin.  when the rosters were formed at the start of the season Dunedin looked to have a good pitching staff but a weak offense.  The pitching has lived up to expectations, Dunedin are second in the FSL in runs allowed.  But the offense is solidly middle of the pack.  Surprisingly they are fifth in slugging, fifth in OPS, and second in home runs.  Brad Glenn has 12 homers and Jon Talley and Kevin Ahrens have five each.  AJ Jimenez and Justin Jackson are also up there in SLG, mainly due to their good batting averages.  At the start of the season Jimenez, and to a lesser extent Glenn, would have been expected to carry the offense.  The good hitting by Ahrens and Jackson are a bonus.

On the pitching side Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski have pitched as well as could be expected but the starter with the best ERA, Nestor Molina, has been the biggest surprise.  Molina has the crazy 3-29 BB:K ratio.  He is the only Dunedin starter who has more K's than IP and his three walks allowed are less than any pitcher on the team who has pitched in more than two games.

 

Las Vegas has been a poor performer since the Jays moved there so their winning and competitive play must be appreciated by the locals.  The one area where Las Vegas strays from the middle of the pack is in slugging where they are 4th in the league.  With Eric Thames; Brett Lawrie; David Cooper; and now Adam Loewen, the 51's have the lumber.  It's nice when your offensive leaders are also prospects.

Brad Mills has been the standout pitcher for Las Vegas, his ERA is at 2.28 and that is good for second in the league.  Mills has only given up two home runs this season, which might be a fluke as his ground out/fly out rate has gone down.

 

New Hampshire made the playoffs last season and coming into 2011 it didn't look like their team would be as strong.  But they are fourth in the league in runs scored and fourth in runs allowed so they are doing it with a balanced approach.  Thier fourth in runs scored looks opportunistic as they are eighth in OBP; eighth in SLG; and eighth in OPS, but fourth in runs.  Mike McDade, Travis d'Arnaud and Moises Sierra are the only Fisher Cats with an OPS over 800.   Mike McDade was about the only Fisher Cat who was hot in April, in May Anthony Gose and Travis d'Arnaud have joined him.

There are some interesting numbers among the Fishers:

Moises Sierra leads the team with 31 RBI's, from 38 hits.  That's a 200 hit, 163 RBI pace.  Sierra has ten extra base hits, seven of which are home runs.  I should also note that Sierra has only 16 strikeouts in 130 at-bats, balanced against eight walks.  It seems like he is a free swinger who makes contact and, if it's good contact, the ball is gone.

Mark Sobolewski is hitting just over .200 but he is tied for third on the team with 16 RBI's.

Anthony Gose has 17 steals and has been caught only three times.

Travis d'Arnaud April OPS - 548; May OPS - 1293

Anthony Gose April OPS - 594; May OPS - 900

Among the pitchers AA repeaters Zach Stewart; Rey Gonzalez; and BJ LaMura have been good.  Newcomer Chad Beck leads the starters with a 0.93 WHIP.  Joel Carreno is the only starter with more K's than IP, he also leads the team with 22 walks issued.  In April Carreno had a 6.56 ERA; in May it's 1.93.  In April hitters had eight home runs off Carreno in 23 innings, in 18 May innings he hasn't allowed one.

 

Finally Lansing is in a playoff position thanks to the number one offense in the MWL.  Their pitching ranks eight in ERA and 14 in runs allowed thanks to all the errors.

The hitters are third in the league in OBP; eighth in SLG and fifth in OPS.  Marcus Knecht; Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse are all in the top 20 in the MWL in offensive categories like OBP; SLG; and OPS.  And they are all 20 years old whereas many of the league leaders are 23.  Those three are also on the only Lugnuts who have hit more than one home run.  Carlos Perez started well, his OPs was 797 in april but it's down to 527 in May.

There are seven Lugnuts with over 100 at-bats.  The three above have an OPs over 800.  One hitter is in the 600's and three are in the 500's.  It is amazing that the Lugnuts have scored the most runs.  It also shows that the MWL is a pitchers league, especially in 2011 with the cold start to the season.

On the pitching side, Egan Smith, Drew Hutchison, Casey Lawrence and recently Sean Nolin have pitched well.  Daniel Webb and Misaul Diaz have ERA's over 5.5.  Hutchison and Nolin have more K's than IP.  Danny Barnes has 27 K's in 14 innings.  The Lugnuts have had a very effective bullpen, Scott Gracey, Steve Turnbull and Marcus Walden all have WHIP under 1 and Barnes is barely over it.

 

That is your look around the minors, let's hope the winning continues.

 

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