13 May 2011: Reset

Friday, May 13 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT

Contributed by: Alex Obal

With offense way down for the second year in a row, I figured it'd be worthwhile to take a quick and dirty look at the Jays' stats so far, and compare them to the league totals from this year and last.

And that means tables! Two small, unassuming data tables with simple stats. Hitters, ranked by OPS:

                    PA    K%  BB%  HR%   BA  OBP  SLG

Jose Bautista      134  14.2 24.6  8.2 .350 .515 .760
Adam Lind          140  16.4  5.0  5.0 .313 .343 .516
Jayson Nix          54  27.8 16.7  3.7 .244 .370 .422
J.P. Arencibia     106  22.6  9.4  4.7 .229 .302 .469
2010 Blue Jays          19.2  7.8  4.2 .248 .312 .454
Corey Patterson    111  20.7  6.3  1.9 .276 .315 .438
Jose Molina         50  20.0  8.0  2.0 .250 .327 .409
2010 American           17.5  8.5  2.5 .260 .327 .407
Yunel Escobar      151  14.6 10.6  2.0 .269 .347 .385
2011 Blue Jays          17.8  9.4  2.7 .250 .323 .401
2011 American           17.6  8.8  2.4 .251 .321 .393
Jays minus Bautista*    18.2  7.8  2.1 .241 .303 .370
Minus Bautista & Lind*  18.4  8.2  1.7 .232 .299 .352
Edwin Encarnacion  113  13.3  3.5  0.0 .243 .274 .355
John McDonald       90  14.4  7.8  2.2 .210 .278 .346
Mike McCoy          45  28.9  6.7  2.2 .238 .289 .333
Juan Rivera        127  13.4 11.8  1.6 .216 .315 .288
Rajai Davis         78  19.2  3.8  0.0 .240 .269 .307
Travis Snider       99  23.2 10.1  1.0 .184 .276 .264
Aaron Hill          87  17.2  3.4  0.0 .225 .253 .263
David Cooper        37  13.5 10.8  2.7 .133 .243 .267

* calculated by hand and may be slightly off due to catcher's interference, sac bunt technicalities, my inability to do mental math in the morning, etc.
Not listed: Chris Woodward.

Yes, those really are Jose Bautista's numbers. Yes, the rest of the team has been pretty weak. As depressing as the totals without Lind and Bautista are, at least they might serve as an impetus for AA to send in some reinforcements. It would be a shame to waste another monster MVP season from Bautista, though wasting MVP seasons has been this franchise's identity for the past 10 years, hasn't it?

And the pitchers, ranked by OPS against:

                  IP/GS   IP    K%  BB%  HR%  GB%   BA  OBP  SLG  ERA
Marc Rzepczynski         17.1 27.7  7.7  0.0 67.5 .172 .262 .190 2.60
Carlos Villanueva        21.1 19.5 11.7  2.6 35.8 .134 .234 .239 1.69
Casey Janssen            15.2 16.9  7.7  0.0 44.4 .241 .323 .276 1.72
Brandon Morrow      5.3  21.0 32.6 11.2  1.1 34.7 .221 .303 .312 4.71
Jason Frasor             16.1 25.8  6.1  3.0 37.2 .200 .273 .350 1.65
Jon Rauch                14.2 14.0  8.8  5.3 38.6 .173 .246 .385 3.07
Frank Francisco           8.2 29.7 16.2  5.4 55.0 .161 .297 .355 3.12
2011 American       6.1       17.6  8.8  2.4 44.0 .251 .321 .393 3.91
2011 Blue Jays      5.5       20.1 10.0  2.6 43.7 .244 .327 .394 4.06    
Ricky Romero        6.0  42.1 23.9  8.3  3.3 51.7 .239 .307 .417 4.04
2010 Blue Jays      5.9       19.2  8.7  2.4 45.7 .255 .326 .405 4.22
2010 American       6.1       17.5  8.5  2.5 43.9 .260 .327 .407 4.14
Jesse Litsch        5.9  41.1 19.9  8.5  2.8 47.2 .258 .326 .415 4.14
Shawn Camp               18.0 10.8  5.4  1.4 51.7 .279 .329 .441 2.50
Jo-Jo Reyes         5.1  36.0 14.4  6.6  1.2 33.6 .302 .367 .443 5.00
Kyle Drabek         5.4  43.0 17.0 14.4  2.6 48.5 .278 .383 .438 4.81
Octavio Dotel            10.0 24.5 18.4  6.1 26.9 .211 .375 .474 7.20
Brett Cecil         5.3  21.0 16.0 11.7  4.3 30.8 .304 .376 .519 6.86

Not listed: Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Luis Perez.

BABIP has plummeted over the last two years, from .300 in 2009 to .294 in 2010 to .286 in 2011. The fielders are getting better, or the balls are getting hit less hard, or both. Or something else? Whatever the cause, hits are tougher to come by, and that might be the cause of the lower run environment. Alternatively, pitchers may have already known that there were fewer homers going around, and started to pitch around hitters accordingly. Chicken or egg? Interesting question, no clue.

Fun fact I discovered while compiling these stats: Jo-Jo Reyes ranks second on the team in Fangraphs WAR, edging out Ricky Romero at 0.6. Yeah, that Jo-Jo Reyes, the guy on the Blue Jays. Morrow gets hurt again and the Jays' Pitcher of the Year award is Reyes' to lose. Reyes' high WAR is entirely due to his low FIP, which is entirely due to his low HR rate, which is entirely due to his 3.4% HR/FB rate, and I don't think his fastball is that good. So it probably won't last. Still, I'm fairly confident 0% of Blue Jays fans would consider Reyes their second-best starter thus far. Reason #487b to stick with smaller, simpler stats for assessing players in the present.

Opening day rematch tonight – Romero takes on strike-throwing righty Carl "P Control" Pavano. (Okay that isn't really his nickname, but like I was gonna let this thread go without a Minnesota music reference...) Jays -110, forecast calls for about 10 degrees, first pitch 8:10.

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