Predict the Injuries

Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 07:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Forecasting playing time is fun, isn't it?

Reality check, kids....

Anyone want to forecast how many days Blue Jays spend on the DL in 2011?

You know it's going to happen, and just to give you a sense of how much  it can happen, let me provide for you a history of the Blue Jays and the Disabled List. Covering most of the current millennium...

2010  (762 games lost)

Dustin McGowan                162
Dirk Hayhurst                 162
Jesse Litsch (two times)      114 (59+55)
Scott Richmond                 70
Travis Snider                  54
Edwin Encarnacion (two times)  44 (30+14)
Brian Tallet                   41
Mark Rzepczynski               41
David Purcey                   18
Rommie Lewis                   17
Aaron Hill                     15
John Buck                      12
Shaun Marcum                   12


2009  (848 games lost)

Dustin McGowan                 162
Shaun Marcum                   162
Jesse Litsch                   154
Robert Ray                     118
Michael Barret                  71
Casey Janssen (two times)       55 (23-32)
Scott Downs (two times)         37 (19-18)
Ricky Romero                    24
Scott Richmond                  21
B.J. Ryan                       18
Edwin Encarnacion               15
Roy Halladay                    11

2008  (780 games lost)

Casey Janssen                  162
Jeremy Accardo                 125
Aaron Hill                     105
Dustin McGowan                  70
Shannon Stewart                 54
Vernon Wells (two times)        52 (26+26)
Brian Wolfe                     45
Scott Rolen (two times)         36 (23+13)
John McDonald                   29
Shaun Marcum                    27
David Eckstein                  19
Brian Tallet                    17
Gregg Zaun                      16
Brad Wilkerson                  12
B.J. Ryan                       11

2007  (954 games lost)

Davis Romero                   162
B.J. Ryan                      151
Gustavo Chacin                 139
Brandon League (two times)     117 (90+27)
Reed Johnson                    76
John Thomson                    69
Victor Zambrano                 55
A.J. Burnett (two times)        50 (37-13)
Gregg Zaun                      39
Troy Glaus (two times)          39 (14-25)
Lyle Overbay                    31
Roy Halladay                    18
Vernon Wells                     9

2006   (319 games lost)
 
Pete Walker (two times)         89 (15+74)
Gustavo Chacin (two times)      83 (17+66)
A.J. Burnett (two times)        61 (10+51)
Justin Speier                   27
Alex Rios                       26
Ty Taubenheim                   15
John McDonald                   14
Gregg Zaun                       4

2005    (191 games lost)

Roy Halladay                    76
Corey Koskie                    58
Ted Lilly (two times)           45 (6+39)
Gregg Zaun                      12

2004    (740 games lost)

Greg Myers                     141
Bobby Estalella                104
Valerie De Los Santos          100
Frank Catalanotto (three times) 81 (16+26+39)
Roy Halladay (two times)        70 (15+55)
Justin Miller                   55
Bob File                        35
Carlos Delgado                  33
Justin Speier                   25
Vernon Wells                    24
Chris Woodward                  24
Orlando Hudson                  20
Kevin Cash                      15
Kerry Ligtenberg                13


2003    (460 games lost)

Bob File                       124
Doug Creek                     116
Pete Walker (two times)         88 (19+69)
Eric Hinske                     28
Dave Berg                       22
Shannon Stewart                 21
Cliff Politte                   20
Cory Lidle                      18
Josh Phelps                     13
Jayson Werth                    10

2002    (571 games lost)

Mike Sirotka                   162
Chris Carpenter (three times)  112 (15+53+44)
Luke Prokopec (two times)       72 (37+35)
Steve Parris                    63
Bob File (two times)            36 (12+24)
Esteban Loaiza                  35
Jose Cruz                       33
Chris Woodward                  18
Carlos Delgado                  14
Shannon Stewart                 13
Darrin Fletcher                 13

Even the years with the lowest numbers have their own special kind of nastiness. The lowest of all, by far, was 2005 - the team lost just 191 days to the DL. The problem is, Roy Halladay, having the best year of his life, accounts for the largest share, having suffered a season-ending injury just before the All-Star Break. And 2006 looks pretty good - just 319 days lost to the DL - until you look closely and notice that two of the five guys pencilled into the rotation at the start of the season account for a big chunk of that year's damage...

It's true that sometimes there are passengers, players who weren't really an integral part of the team's plans but ended spending an entire season on a major league DL - Mike Sirotka, Davis Romero, Dustin McGowan in recent years (and earning a major league salary, too - I'm pretty sure Dirk Hayhurst made more money playing baseball last year, when he couldn't play, than any other time in his career.) But those guys are the exceptions. Roy Halladay went on the DL five different times, and missed 175 games during these years. That's a whole season, too.

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