So many questions
Still left unanswered
So much I've never broken through......
I don't know much
But I know I love you
That may be
All there is to know
Over the weekend, with the freezing weather in Ontario, I took the opportunity to clean out some old files while finding time to look at my newly arrived Baseball Forecaster. Some of the stories and clippings I looked at reminded me of how little we know about baseball performance, one of the reasons the game appeals to us.
At this time last year there were people calling for Jose Bautista to be traded, and expecting that Randy Ruiz would be on the bright spots for the 2010 Jays. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind were going to carry the Blue Jay offense and Brett Wallace was waiting in the wings.
My weekend started, obviously, with the Vernon Wells trade. But once I got over that shock I sat down Friday night to look at the Baseball Forecaster. This is Ron Shandler's 25th year of publishing the forecaster and he opens the book with a look back at the last 25 years of baseball forecasting. One of his comments struck me, he said:
The takeaway after 25 years is...... No matter how much effort we put into playing this game (fantasy baseball), we are not nearly as smart as we think we are. We are all pretty much clueless......But as much as we think we are getting close to nailing this game, we're really not even close. I don't know we ever will be.
Shandler goes on to say that competitive advantages in fantasy have a short life. In real baseball they do too, we have gone from Moneyball, to defense, to scouting in a constant cat and mouse game to get, and stay, ahead.
Shandler's bottom line is to try and separate underlying skill levels from surface stats. Putting together a baseball team is somewhat similar, try and put talented players together and hope they all have good seasons at the same time.
That brings me to the second part of my weekend. On Saturday, while cleaning my files, I came across a National Post story from April 3rd 2010. The Post asked a selection of Blue Jay bloggers, as well as their own Jeremy Sandler, a series of ten questions about the Blue Jays in 2010. The bloggers included three of Da Box's roster, Thomas Ayres, Matthew Elmslie and yours truly. The Post took a selection of each bloggers answers and printed them in the story.
The biggest thing some of the assembled writers got wrong, I noted, was their opinion of Jose Bautista. One question posed by the Post was "biggest liability in the starting line-up?". Matthias Koster (mop up duty); Drew Fairservice (ghost runner on first) and our own WillRain chose Bautista. Drew put a little extra sauce on the mustard: "Big Septembers mean next to nothing. Three seasons worth of lackluster results don't overshadow three decent weeks." At this time last season the expectations for Jose Bautista were all over the map. Some believed his September performance was an indicator for 2010, others obviously didn't. Nobody predicted 50 plus homers.
Randy Ruiz was also a player with a lot of expectations heading into 2010. Several bloggers said they were looking forward to what Ruiz could do if given the chance. You could debate whether he got a chance but his time with the Blue Jays was short. Now Japan carries those expectations.
On the other hand we were expecting big years from Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. The Post asked who should bat 2-3-4? Most of the answers said Hill and Lind should be in two of those spots. Drew again gets the nod for his Hill-Lind-Ruiz call.
When asked about which minor leaguers would help in 2010 Brett Wallace was a blogger favourite, that didn't end well.
The Post asked if you were the GM would you trade Aaron Hill if you got an offer you couldn't refuse? All bloggers except one, Matthias, said they would. Matthias felt that two way second basemen are rare commodities.
When asked who would be the closer most voted for Jason Frasor with Scott Downs getting a few votes. Kevin Gregg was generally unloved and unappreciated.
When asked about the biggest flop, the Posts' own Jeremy Sandler picked Ricky Romero because of his 5.54 ERa after the all-star break in 2009. Our own Matthew Elmslie picked Alex Gonzalez who proved him wrong by over-achieving in Toronto.
So heading into last season the cream of the internet writers following the Jays had no inkling of the good performances by Jose Bautista, Kevin Gregg, Alex Gonzalez or Vernon Wells. They also had no expectation of poor seasons by Adam Lind; Aaron Hill; Randy Ruiz; and Brett Wallace.
That's seven major leaguers with bad misses, a 25% miss rate.
The final question asked for the Jays record in 2010. Most bloggers picked numbers around 70 wins. Navin Viswani (sports and the city) picked 82 wins saying he was a glass overflowing kind of guy. And our own Matthew Elmslie picked 80 wins saying why not this year? Even these two guys, who had the best guesses, described themselves as optimists.
I did not write this to call guys out, no-one was perfect. I wrote this to remind ourselves, as we dissect the Jays roster and trades, that we still are a long way from knowing how players will perform in a given season and what makes for a winning team, other than $200 million or so.
Someone on this team will be 2011's Bautista, over-achieving their expectations by a wide margin. And someone will be this years Lind or Hill, with an unexpected dive in production.
And finally there could be this year's Brett Wallace, a heralded rookie who struggles out of the gate.
So are you still confident? Who will be this years Bautista and Hill?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2011012414352155