Ricky and the Damage Done

Sunday, October 03 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

There's been some talk about the defensive shortcomings of John Buck and Jose Molina, talk which generally focuses on one thing - baseballs rolling to the backstop. It's my understanding (I don't hear the radio team much) that Alan Ashby, a former catcher who was very good at this part of the game, has been talking about it all season.

Bauxite Flex is among the many who have been persuaded by Ashby, and said the other day that:

 I trust Ashby's judgment. A catcher better at blocking the ball would have saved Romero ten wild pitches and maybe a couple of losses.

Both of these things would be remarkable, if true. How true are they?

Romero has been charged with 18 wild pitches. That's a lot - it led the AL and was just one shy of Edwin Jackson's major league leading total. It's the third highest figure in team history: Dave Lemanczyk had 20 in 1977 (in 252 IP) and Juan Guzman set the record with 26 in 1993 (in 221 IP). 11 of Romero's WPs came with John Buck catching, 7 came with Jose Molina behind the plate. Molina also had a passed ball with Romero on the mound. What resulted from all of this?

This:

                                                         Base Situation            
     Date    Catcher  Inning  Score  Outs  Runner(s)            Before After Event    Outcome

 1   8-Apr    Molina    5      0-0    1    Guerrero                1     2    WP    Stranded on second
 2   8-Apr    Molina    7      0-0    2    Murphy                  3     0    WP    Murphy scored
     Game result: Romero left trailing 1-0 after 7 IP, Jays rally to win.

 3  13-Apr    Buck      4      2-0    2    Quentin                 1     2    WP    Stranded on second
     Game result: Romero left with 4-2 lead after 8 IP, got the W

 4  18-Apr    Buck      3      0-0    2    Willits                 1     2    WP    Stranded on second
 5  18-Apr    Buck      4      0-0    0    Kendrick                1     2    WP    Stranded on third
     Game result: Romero left trailing 1-0 after 7 IP, took the L

 6  24-Apr    Buck      4      0-0    2    Upton                   1     2    WP    Stranded on second
     Game result: Romero left with 3-2 lead after 7 IP, bullpen lost game.

 7  29-Apr    Buck      3      0-1    2    Rosales, Kouzmanoff    12    23    WP    Rosales, Kouzmanoff scored on Fox 2b.
     Game result: Romero left with 6-3 lead after 6, got the W

 8   4-May    Buck      3      1-0    2    Sizemore, Grudzielanek 13    23    WP    Sizemore, Grudzielanek scored on Choo single
 9   4-May    Buck      3      1-2    2    Choo                    1     2    WP    Kearns BB, Peralta 2 run double, Choo scored
10   4-May    Buck      4      4-4    1    Valbuena                2     3    WP    Scored on Sizemore single
     Game result: Romero left with 8-5 lead after 6 IP, got the W

11   9-May    Molina    2      1-0    1    Quentin, Rios          12    23    PB    Castro BB, Nix RBI single, Pierre RBI single
12   9-May    Molina    3      5-3    0    Rios, Konerko          12    23    WP    Quentin BB, Ramirez GDP, Konerko scored
13   9-May    Molina    4      5-4    1    Nix                     1     2    WP    Stranded on second
     Game result: Romero left with 5-4 lead after 5.1 IP, bullpen lost lead, Jays rallied to win.

14  15-May    Molina    5      1-0    1    Murphy                  1     2    WP    Stranded on second
     Game result: Romero pitches CG shutout, wins 4-0

15  11-Jun    Buck      4      3-3    2    Olivo                   2     3    WP    Stranded on third
     Game result: Romero left trailing 4-3 after 5 IP, took the L

16  16-Jun    Buck      4      1-1    1    Denorfia                1     2    WP    Stranded on second
     Game result: Romero left with 6-1 lead after 6 IP, got the W

17  11-Sep    Molina    4      0-2    1    Zobrist                 2     3    WP    Pena BB, Rodriguez BB, Hawpe GS homer
     Game result: Romero left trailing 6-1 after 4 IP, took the L

18  18-Sep    Molina    6      4-1    1    Ortiz, Beltre          12    23    WP    Lowrie RBI groundout, Drew RBI single, Hall single
     Game result: Romero left with 4-3 lead after 6 IP, got the W

19   1-Oct    Buck      6      1-1    1    Span                    1     2    WP    Hardy K, Mauer RBI single, Young GDP
     Game result: Romero left with 6-2 lead after 8, got the W
A few notes: I believe the TV guys have suggested that most of this was happening early in the season. They're right - three quarters of these events happened in the first six weeks of the season. John Buck, in particular, seems to have completely solved his problems with Romero's curve ball. Jose Molina, alas, remains as mobile as your average fire hydrant.

There were 24 baserunners aboard during the 19 mishaps, and 23 of them took an extra base (everyone but Grudzielanek at 3b on a WP on May 4). Of those 23 runners, 10 were stranded and 13 came in to score. You can't lay all that at the foot of the wild pitches, but certainly it's the only reason some of the runs came across - Murphy on April 8, Span on October 1 in particular. With two out, Rosales might have scored from first anyway on Fox's double - but he might not have done. Lowrie's RBI groundout on September 18 was a slow roller, so the WP did not blow an inning-ending GDP. Even if Ortiz was still running from first to second, the sure out was still at first base...

You obviously can't assume that the at bats would play out in the same fashion with the runner at his original base. Romero several times issued a walk to the very next hitter, which would have sometimes had the very same adbvancement effect (and also suggesting that maybe some of these WPs might have had something to with a pitcher fighting his control.) But we can't know this. The Missing Alternative Timeline strikes again.

At any rate, they certainly didn't cost Romero any losses. Romero went 7-3 in these 13 games and the team went 9-4. In only one of the four losses did one of these advancing baseruunners cross the plate. That was in the September 11 game against Tampa. That WP came with the Jays already trailing 2-0; Romero would give up a grand slam later in the inning and the Rays would win 13-1. There were bigger problems that day.

Anyway, if Ashby said 10 wild pitches and a couple of losses, he's clearly indulging in a bit of hyperbole.

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