Baseball America will begin publishing their league top twenty lists this week. I thought I would take a shot at guessing which Jays might make the lists.
This is a tricky objective because I don't know all the prospects from other organizations nor will I be examining the non-Blue Jay rosters of all the minor league teams to see who should make the list. I will approach this purely from a Blue Jay perspective.
Also we have to remember that Baseball America favours toolsy prospects and in this case they are selecting the best prospects in each league, not the players with the best seasons. In the lower leagues that means that high draft picks will have the best shot at the top 20 list. Players like Casey Lawrence, who was undrafted, and Chuck Huggins, who was a 23rd round selection, have virtually no chance of making the lists. Of course that doesn't mean they will not be major leaguers, it means they don't have the potential to be #1 or #2 starters according to BA. Finally there are twenty prospects on each list and usually twelve or fourteen teams so the average is about 1.5 players per organization.
To the lists:
PCL - Las Vegas
It should be easier to make the top 20 in AAA than in many other leagues as the rosters are filled with former major leaguers and career minor leaguers. JP Arencibia was the MVP of the PCL and should be in the top 10, if not the top 5.
On the hitting side the leading hitters were Aaron Mathews, Chris Lubanski, Brad Emaus and Jarrett Hoffpauir. None of these hitters are considered top prospects and Lubanski and Hoffpauir are close to being considered career minor leaguers.
Pitching wasn't a strong point of the 51's. Brad Mills and Marc Rzepczynski were the leading pitchers for Las Vegas but given their stats I am not sure if they have a chance at being top 20 prospects.
EL - New Hampshire
The Fisher Cats made the playoffs and should have a good shot at multiple prospects on the list. Kyle Drabek is a definite choice as one of the top prospects in baseball. I think Zach Stewart has a good shot to make the list as well. He has the potential to be an impact starter in the majors, his ERA was good and he improved as the season progressed.
Other than those two I don't think Randy Boone, Trystan Magnuson or Danny Farquhar will make the list. Boone is a Dave Bush type who needs all his pitches to succeed. It is also very difficult for relievers to make these lists.
Offensively Eric Thames will be an interesting study. Thames was third in the league in OPS and was tied for second in home runs. But BA staffers have downplayed Thames potential and they question his pitch recognition and his selectivity at the plate. I think Thames will make the list, it is tough even for BA to ignore a 23 year old with stats like these; but I don't think he will be top five.
Other than Thames I don't think the Jays will have an offensive representative. Many of the hitters had average seasons with some slumps and none of them are among the Jays top prospects. Darin Mastroianni had a good offensive season but he is not highly regarded enough to make the list.
High A - Dunedin
Travis D'Arnaud should make the list. He did miss a lot of the season with his back problem but he started strongly and is a highly rated prospect. Other than D'Arnaud no other offensive player will make it, Mike McDade had a strong season but he is a one tool player (power) and was not on the Jays top 30 prospect list before the season.
There will be a couple of interesting calls on the pitching side. Henderson Alvarez is a top prospect but he did not have a great season. Chad Jenkins is a first round pick and he too did not have an outstanding season. Joel Carreno and Chuck Huggins were not highly rated prospects but they had arguably better seasons than Alvarez and Jenkins. Despite his season I think Alvarez makes the list. He does have tools, he played in the futures game and he was young for the league. I don't think any of the other pitchers make the list. Carreno might have an outside shot due to his high number of strikeouts.
A - Lansing
Lansing's pitching was not a strong suit in 2010. Chad Jenkins was promoted but his numbers didn't say that he deserved it. Most of the other starters were league average at best.
AJ Jimenez is the top rated prospect on the Lugnuts and he had a strong 2010 season and I would expect him to be on the top 20 list. Other than Jimenez, Lansing's leading hitters were Brad Glenn and Sean Ochinko who are older players. Ryan Goins had a good season but he was promoted half way though the season and might miss the list for that reason.
Low A - Auburn
The Jays strong catching continues in Auburn where Carlos Perez had an excellent season. Perez finished in the top 20 in OPS and was also strong defensively. Perez should be near the top of the top 20 for the NYPL. The next hitters in OPS for Auburn were Lance Durham, Stephen McQuail and Marcus Knecht. I don't believe any of those players will make the list. Gustavo Pierre played in the league as an 18 year old but I don't think he did enough at the plate to make the top 20.
On the pitching side Asher Wojciechowski dominated in three starts but probably wasn't seen enough to make the list. Casey Lawrence was undrafted and despite his good numbers won't make the top 20. Finally Drew Hutchison also had a strong season but due to his lower draft position and his average fastball I can't see him making it either.
Rookie - GCL Jays
The GCL might be one of the toughest leagues to identify which prospects make the list. The league is full of highly drafted high school players and latin players who signed for big dollars. Even though some of these players didn't have great numbers they are still highly regarded and could make the list. Also the GCL has fifteen teams, increasing the competition for top 20 spots.
Some of the Jays best players were promoted before the end of the season. Michael Crouse, Jake Marisnick and Misual Diaz moved up before the end of the season and I am unsure if they played enough to make the list. Crouse had a very high OPS, 996, but doesn't appear on the league leaders list due to not having enough at-bats. On the other hand Kellen Sweeney had only 45 at-bats and might not have played enough for consideration. Marisnick had a good OPS but it was lower than Crouse but Marisnick was a higher draft pick so Jake could sneak onto the list.
Misual Diaz and Deivy Estrada were the best of the Jays pitchers but as non-touted latin free-agents they might not get enough interest to make it. Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard are top draft selections.
This guess is a crap-shoot but I will say Sanchez is the only Jay to make it on account of his draft position.
Summary
The following players will make the BA top 20 lists:
PCL: JP Arencibia
EL: Kyle Drabek; Zach Stewart; Eric Thames
FSL: Travis D'Arnaud and Henderson Alvarez
MWL: AJ Jimenez
NYPL: Carlos Perez
GCL: Aaron Sanchez
Does anyone else want to take a guess?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100918193851662