Mark Prior was like that, once upon a time. Prior was in the news last week - he's signed on with an independent league team, in yet another effort to revive his career. He's still just 29 years old. The conventional wisdom on Prior, I suppose, is that he was headed straight to the Hall of Fame, but Dusty Baker broke him in September and October of 2003. That might be true. Prior was worked pretty hard at a very young age. He was only 22 during that spectacular 2003 season, when he pitched more than 230 innings (including post-season) - and all this despite missing almost a month in mid-season. Now, of course, he hasn't pitched in a professional game since 2006.
Anyway, Prior made it look easy, too. There were actually people who said Prior came as close to having perfect pitching mechanics as anyone. And if his mechanics were that perfect, it must be the way he was used that destroyed him. Right? What else could it be? As the Cubs headed into September 2003, Prior had thrown more than 120 pitches in a game three times, topping out at 127 (as a 21 year old in 2002, he had one start of 135 pitches.) And then, in his 6 September starts, he did that pretty much every time out. In his 5 September wins, he threw from 124 to 133 pitches. He then made three post-season starts (topping out at 133 pitches in the first of them.)
Was this the workload that broke him? Maybe - he was awfully young (he turned 23 in the midst of it all.)
Or maybe his mechanics weren't that perfect after all. Chris O'Leary, who has studied the matter much more deeply than many of us, believes that Prior's mechanics were a disaster waiting to happen. He identifies something he calls the "Inverted W" - after Prior breaks his hands and brings his arm back, his elbow actually rises above the level of his shoulders. Like this:
O'Leary believes, not that this position is itself a problem, but that it destroys the timing of the delivery - that the arm has to catch up to the body as it turns into the pitch, putting enormous strain on the labrum and rotator cuff.
By the way, immediately after reading this article, I saw a picture of Shaun Marcum on the Jays website in mid-delivery. He was doing the exact same thing - an identical elbow position as he loads for delivery. Gulp.
So who the hell knows. Maybe it wasn't Dusty's fault after all. Not that he helped....
I don't believe very strongly in using pitch counts as a guide to much of anything. It's true that your modern manager behaves as if he believes in them absolutely, the way I believe in Elvis. I suspect, however, that something different is at work here (and it's not orders from the GM.) I think managers like pitch counts because it makes their lives so much simpler. It relieves them of that pesky burden of having to consider the situation and make an actual decision, replacing it with an automatic, reflex manoeuvre. Managers, who get second-guessed more than enough (way more than enough) are almost always happy with that.
Ultimately, I think pitch counts are next to useless as a guide to understanding pitcher abuse, for two reasons. One, we don't really know what actually constitutes pitcher abuse. We just don't know, and we probably never will, because: two) every pitcher is different. Neither Shaun Marcum or Jesse Litsch has ever been allowed to throw as many as 120 pitches in a major league game, not even once. It didn't save them from losing entire years out of their careers. Like so many others, they were broken along the way, but they were not necessarily abused. Whereas David Cone and Roger Clemens threw 140 or 150 pitches many times in their careers. They may have been abused, but they certainly weren't broken by it. Every pitcher is different.
But hey - we've now got more than 20 years of pitch count data for the Blue Jays and I thought it would be fun to find out every time a starter was asked to throw 120 pitches or more in a game.Be it noted that 120 pitches is a pretty random place to draw the line - except I do know that every time a pitcher gets up to 120 pitches in a game, everybody starts yelling. Never mind 130. Brandon Morrow, yesterday, was the first Toronto pitcher to clear 120 pitches in a game this season. No one from Cleveland or Oakland has thrown that many in a game. Jim Leyland and Terry Francona have had starters go that high six times apiece (Justin Verlander five times, to lead all AL pitchers.)
1988 (Jimy Williams)
Mike Flanagan (4) - 125, 128, 125, 127
Jim Clancy (4) - 132, 121, 120, 122
Dave Stieb (3) - 126, 129, 127
Jimmy Key (1) - 122
1989 (Williams 36 games, Cito Gaston 126 games)
John Cerutti (2) - 124, 120
Dave Stieb (1) - 122 (Williams)
Al Leiter (1) - 124 (Williams)
Jimmy Key (1) - 122
Mike Flanagan (1) - 122
1990 (Gaston)
Todd Stottlemyre - 120, 120, 124
Dave Stieb - 123, 120
David Wells - 133, 128
Jimmy Key - 124
1991 (Gaston 129 games, Gene Tenace 33 games)
Tom Candiotti (6) - 120, 127, 129, 125, 135 (Tenace), 123 (Tenace)
Jimmy Key (2) - 122, 120 (Tenace)
Todd Stottlemyre (1) - 126
David Wells (1) - 120
Juan Guzman (1) - 123
1992 (Gaston)
Juan Guzman (7) - 130, 127, 120, 128, 124, 120, 120
Jack Morris (5) - 144, 120, 120, 126, 120
David Cone (3) - 133, 141, 120
Jimmy Key (2) - 122, 122
Todd Stottlemyre (2) - 123, 122
David Wells (1) - 121
1993 (Gaston)
Juan Guzman (7) - 138, 122, 124, 125, 122, 129, 127
Pat Hentgen (4) - 122, 123, 120, 121
Dave Stewart (3) - 121, 122, 122
Todd Stottlemyre (2) - 124, 124
Jack Morris (1) - 135
Al Leiter (1) - 121
1994 (Gaston)
Pat Hentgen (10) - 133, 122, 135, 132, 126, 131, 130, 121, 126, 122
Juan Guzman (9) - 123, 125, 132, 121, 122, 123, 121, 122, 128
Dave Stewart (4) - 123, 135, 123, 128
Todd Stottlemyre (4) - 122, 121, 125, 121
Al Leiter (3) - 122, 120, 123
1995 (Gaston)
David Cone (11) - 125, 134, 127, 135, 126, 139, 135, 121 127, 131, 123
Al Leiter (10) - 120, 120, 122, 129, 120, 122, 134, 128, 138, 129
Pat Hentgen (9) - 125, 123, 121, 128, 128, 123, 124, 121, 126
Juan Guzman (6) - 133, 127, 129, 121, 126, 132
Edwin Hurtado (3) - 121, 124, 124
Giovanni Carrara (1) - 120
1996 (Gaston)
Pat Hentgen (13) - 134, 121, 125, 120, 120, 120, 120, 131, 132, 122, 120, 127, 137
Juan Guzman (4) - 122, 126, 135, 130
Erik Hanson (3) - 128, 121, 123
Huck Flener (1) - 139
Paul Quantrill (1) - 127
Woody Williams (1) - 123
1997 (Gaston 157 games, Mel Queen 5 games)
Roger Clemens (18) - 122, 131, 126, 126, 121, 129, 126, 126, 125, 135, 122, 137, 131, 121, 128, 137, 129, 144 (Queen)
Pat Hentgen (10) - 126, 124, 126, 122, 125, 131, 122, 123, 128, 126
Woody Williams (3) - 121, 128, 122
Robert Person (1) - 121
Luis Andujar (1) - 120
1998 (Tim Johnson)
Roger Clemens (15) - 128, 122, 149, 132, 125, 141, 121, 123, 132, 133, 134, 130, 125, 133, 135
Woody Williams (6) - 131, 120, 121, 121, 122, 134
Juan Guzman (6) - 134, 120, 120, 130, 124, 125
Pat Hentgen (4) - 128, 127, 122, 125
Chris Carpenter (4) - 134, 122, 126, 121
Kelvim Escobar (4) - 120, 122, 135, 123
Erik Hanson (1) - 124
1999 (Jim Fregosi)
David Wells (4) - 122, 122, 124, 129
Pat Hentgen (3) - 120, 123, 120
Chris Carpenter (3) - 120, 121, 131
Kelvim Escobar (1) - 132
2000 (Fregosi)
Kelvim Escobar (6) - 122, 130, 127, 130, 124, 126
Chris Carpenter (4) - 122, 121, 123, 129
David Wells (3) - 121, 126, 120
Esteban Loaiza (3) - 120, 123, 131
Steve Trachsel (1) - 124
2001 (Buck Martinez)
Chris Carpenter (3) - 122, 120, 124
Joey Hamilton (1) - 122
Esteban Loaiza (1) - 120
2002 (Martinez 53 games, Carlos Tosca 109 games)
Roy Halladay (1) - 126 (Martinez)
Pete Walker (1) - 122 (Tosca)
2003 (Tosca)
Kelvim Escobar (2) - 121, 131
Roy Halladay (2) - 120, 122
Cory Lidle (1) - 127
2004 (Tosca 112 games, John Gibbons 50 games)
Miguel Batista (2) - 123 (Tosca), 120 (Gibbons)
Ted Lilly (2) - 125 (Tosca), 126 (Gibbons)
Roy Halladay (1) - 124 (Tosca)
Josh Towers (1) - 128 (Gibbons)
2005 (Gibbons)
Roy Halladay (1) - 124
2006 (Gibbons)
Ted Lilly (2) - 120, 122
A.J. Burnett (1) - 121
2007 (Gibbons)
Roy Halladay (5) - 126, 125, 124, 126, 123
A.J. Burnett (4) - 125, 130, 120, 124
Dustin McGowan (1) - 122
2008 (Gibbons 74 games, Gaston 88 games)
Roy Halladay (2) - 121 (Gibbons), 130 (Gaston)
Dustin McGowan (1) - 125 (Gibbons)
A.J. Burnett (1) - 120 (Gaston)
David Purcey (1) - 120 (Gaston)
2009 (Gaston)
Roy Halladay (1) - 133
2010 (Gaston)
Brandon Morrow (1) - 137
Let's make a pretty picture of it all.
Let's quickly add up how often individual starters were asked to do this work:
53 - Pat Hentgen
40 - Juan Guzman
33 - Roger Clemens
15 - Al Leiter
14 - Davis Cone, Chris Carpenter
13 - Kelvim Escobar, Roy Halladay
12 - Todd Stottlemyre
11 - David Wells
10 - Woody Williams
7 - Dave Stewart, Jimmy Key
6 - Tom Candiotti, Jack Morris, A.J. Burnett, Dave Stieb
5 - Mike Flanagan
4 - Jim Clancy, Erik Hanson, Esteban Loaiza, Ted Lilly
3 - Edwin Hurtado
2 - John Cerutti, Miguel Batista, Dustin McGowan
1 - Giovanni Carrara, Huck Flener, Paul Quantrill, Robert Person, Luis Andujar, Steve Trachsel, Joey Hamilton, Pete Walker, Cory Lidle, Josh Towers, David Purcey, Brandon Morrow
0 - Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch, Brian Tallet, Mark Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond, Casey Janssen, Gustavo Chacin, Scott Downs, Tomo Ohka, David Bush, Justin Miller, Mark Hendrickson, Doug Davis, Steve Parris, Luke Prokopec, Brandon Lyon, Chris Michalak, Frank Castillo, Marty Janzen, Danny Darwin, Jeff Musselman, and a Bunch of Other Guys who made fewer than 10 starts for Toronto.
A few thoughts: Cito Gaston has had a long run managing this team, and his approach has changed, and changed, and changed yet again. When he replaced Jimy Williams, he was even more reluctant to let his starters throw a lot of pitches (and by 1980s standards, Williams was pretty cautious.) Gaston gradually began to let his starters go deeper - partially because the team was acquiring on the one hand veteran mercenaries like Cone and Morris, who had demonstrated conclusively that they could handle the load, and on the other hand hard-throwing wild men like Guzman and Leiter, who needed 100 pitches just to get through five innings. And then, around 1995-96, Gaston's bullpen was swallowed up and disappeared off the face of the earth. He literally had no one out there. There really were times when it was one journeyman (Tony Castillo) and five AAA guys. In response, Gaston started going as deep with his starters as he possibly could. Edwin Hurtado, in half a season, had more 120 pitch outings under Gaston than Dave Stieb.
Tim Johnson liked to leave the starters out there to throw a lot of pitches, and he didn't care if it was the Cy Young winner or a rookie. The 120 pitch outings drop significantly under Jim Fregosi, and come the new millennium, with Buck Martinez, Carlos Tosca, and John Gibbons, these outings become an endangered species. And Gaston Mark Two is definitely following the new trend.
And in these 20 seasons, just four times has a Blue Jay pitcher thrown more than 140 pitches in a game. Some of you may actually remember Jack Morris' Opening Day statement game against the Tigers in 1992. Gaston would also let David Cone, a veteran hired gun bound for free agency, throw 141 pitches that September. It's remarkable that one of these four games came during Mel Queen's brief tenure running the team at the end of 1997 - it was Clemens, as was the biggest Blue Jay pitch count of the last 20 years, Clemens against Oakland in May 1998.