As longtime readers may have noticed, I am enamored with batter-pitcher match-ups. I take them seriously, I believe in them absolutely.
I think it's safe to say that most serious analysts of the game, a group which certainly does not include me, do not share this view. Which is interesting because everyone - I mean, absolutely everyone - who is directly connected with the game takes these match-ups quite seriously indeed.
You know, the managers, the coaches, the players...
I don't know what, if anything, that actually means - but I sure think it's interesting.
Anyway. As I understand it, the objection to taking batter-pitcher match-ups seriously always invokes, like a talisman, the famous phrase "small sample size." I want to vamp a little on the notion of the sample size...
Why do we care about the sample size? What are we trying to do with it, anyway? What questions are we trying to answer?
What is a small sample size, anyway? When does a sample size become meaningful? Are there not times when we actually prefer the smaller sample?
Of course there are. The ultimate data sample is the complete package, a player's career numbers. But there's only a window of time, in mid-career, when we regard those as the most meaningful source of information. If your name is Ken Griffey or Travis Snider, we're not going to pay too much attention to those career numbers. At the very least, we're not going to pay too much attention if the question we're trying to answer is how much this particular player is going help our team right now (or, alternatively, over the next few years.)
That's not the only instance, of course. Every time we pay attention to a platoon split, we are announcing our preference for the smaller sample.
Which I'm cool with. Sometimes the entire season - thousands of games, thousands and thousands of at bats and balls in play, more than a million pitches - can actually come down to one single pitch. The sample doesn't get any smaller, or more meaningful, than that. Ralph Terry and Bill Mazeroski. Alejandro Pena and Gene Larkin. Mariano Rivera and Luis Gonzalez.
Now I believe, as I said, in batter-pitcher match-ups. But I will also tell you that I do not believe how a player performs over, say, one month tells you much of anything. When Lyle Overbay hit .171 this past April, I didn't think it meant he had completely lost his ability to hit major league pitching, and neither did any of you. (Well, neither did most of you.) We knew it was just one month and it didn't mean much of anything. What was the sample size? It was 96 plate appearances. Which means diddly, right?
As it happens, 96 plate appearances is twice as many plate appearances as Lyle Overbay has against any pitcher he's ever faced in his major league career. But, yes, I am going to take these match-ups, and that sample size, seriously.
It is unusual these days for a player to have as many as 100 plate appearances against anybody. Omar Vizquel, who has stepped up to bat more often than any other player currently active in the majors, faced Roger Clemens more times than anyone else, but he still had just 90 plate appearances against the Rocket (That was probably quite enough for Omar, by the way - he hit .198 and slugged .203 in those ABs.)
You're probably wondering which match-up between active players has occurred most often! Come on, you need to know!
It's a tie folks, but not for long.
Garrett Anderson has faced Jamie Moyer 112 times, and done okay (.312/.321/.550 with 5 HRs in 109 at bats.) They last faced each other about a year ago - while they're both in the NL, Garrett is a bench player now, and Moyer's future is in jeopardy.
Jason Giambi has also faced Tim Wakefield 112 times, and generally been befuddled by the knuckler (.163/.304/.359) - Jason's best move has been to keep the bat on his shoulder and hope for a walk. Giambi's now on an NL bench, while Wakefield rolls on in the AL.
Which is why we shall have a new leader quite soon. The Red Sox have 10 games coming up against the Yankees before this season is over, including a four game set in about two weeks. Wakefield has pitched to Derek Jeter 111 times. The Captain has held his own (.295/.324/.419).
What's the difference between Overbay's 96 meaningless at bats in April, and Giambi's 112 against Wakefield?
I dunno. What's the difference between one month and ten years?
The batter-pitcher matchup, as I've said before, tells us who - the batter or the pitcher - has the initial advantage in this particular match-up. Roy Halladay is a certifiably great picther, and given enough opportunities, he would eventually find some way to pitch to Johnny Damon that actually works. Eventually. But he's had 108 actual opportunites to pitch to Damon, and he never did find the answer. Still, he spent ten years trying. He just wasn't able to do it. His best solution has been to go the National League.
Anyway, here`s some information about your 2010 Blue Jays hitters. One of the things that interested me was to see if I could find anything in common among the guys that give a hitter difficulty, or the guys he destroys. At this point, I'm convinced that it's not the pitcher's stuff that makes the difference. I suspect it might be his delivery. Some hitters just don't see the ball as well against some guys.
Who the hell knows.
Vernon Wells
Most PA against - Tim Wakefield (72). V-Dub has scratched out some singles, but that is all (.258/.347/.306).
Most hits - Mike Mussina (21). Amongst active pitchers, it would be Mark Buehrle (19).
Most strikeouts - Jeff Weaver (10). Go figure. Wells has actually hit Weaver very well (.297/.350/.595)
Most HRs - Josh Beckett (5)
Likes to face - Buehrle (.500/.535/.658) and Beckett (.343/.425/.886)
Hates to face - Mark Hendrickson (.205/.244/.359)
No clue whatsoever - Jorge Julio (0-12)
See, that's what I'm talking about! Hendrickson and Buehrle are both LH finesse pitchers. One of them Has Vernon's number, and the other one - the really good one - Wells is able to hit more or less at will. He had an awful time with a mediocre RH flame throwers like Daniel Cabrera, but he pounds the crap out of Josh Beckett, a good RH flame thrower. He was helpless against Esteban Loiaza and Victor Zambrano...
Lyle Overbay
Most PA against - Josh Beckett (41). Opie's done okay (.314/.415/.429)
Most hits - Beckett and James Shields (11)
Most strikeouts - Beckett (11)
Most HRs - Brandon Claussen (4), all when he was with the Brewers in 2005. He's got 3 against Shields.
Likes to face - Zack Greinke (.381/.409/.714). He wishes Claussen was still around, and Greg Maddux, too.
Hates to face - Andy Pettitte (.103/.103/.138) and A.J. Burnett (.087/.125/.130)
No clue whatsoever - Mark Buehrle (0-16)
John Buck
Most PA against - Mark Buehrle (55). It hasn't been pretty (.157/.204/.353)
Most hits - Cliff Lee (12)
Most strikeouts - Buehrle (16)
Most HRs - Buehrle and Lee (3)
Likes to face - Cliff Lee (.353/.436/.706), and he shows up with a smile when Andy Pettitte or Nate Robertson is on the schedule.
Hates to face - Jose Contreras (.118/.158/.118)
No clue whatsoever - Zach Miner (0-13)
Aaron Hill
Most PA against - Scott Kazmir and Tim Wakefield (35). He's gone 10-33 (.303) against both of them.
Most hits - Josh Beckett (13)
Most strikeouts - Jon Lester (9)
Most HRs - Jamie Moyer (3)
Likes to face - Beckett (.406/.441/.688). And Hill's struggles in 2010 may simply be because Nate Robertson is no longer in the AL.
Hates to face - Andy Pettitte (.133/.133/.133), naturally. Lester and Hendrickson gave him fits as well.
No clue whatsoever - Runelvys Hernandez (0-9)
Edwin Encarnacion
Most PA against - Carlos Zambrano (48). EE has gone .238/.333/.381 with a couple HRs.
Most hits - Paul Maholm (13)
Most strikeouts - Zambrano (11)
Most HRs - Anthony Reyes (4) in just 7 ABs!
Likes to face - Besides Reyes? Jason Marquis (.500/.556/.938)
Hates to face - Roy Oswalt (.125/.160/.208)
No clue whatsoever - Rich Harden and Brad Lidge (0-8)
Jose Bautista
Most PA against - Andy Pettitte (33). It's been fun (.310/.394/.621)
Most hits - Pettitte (9)
Most strikeouts - Doug Davis, Rich Hill, Russ Springer (7)
Most HRs - Pettitte, Burnett, Kevin Millwood, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Slowey (2)
Likes to face - Jeremy Guthrie (.333/.412/.800). Pettitte, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush are also welcome anytime.
Hates to face - Carlos Zambrano (.067/.222/.133), Not fond of Hendrickson, Ben Sheets, or Wandy Rodruguez.
No clue whatsoever - Russ Springer (0-12)
Yunel Escobar
Most PA against - Ricky Nolasco (27), and it went well (.370/.370/.593).
Most hits - Nolasco (10)
Most strikeouts - Jamie Moyer, John Maine, Max Scherzer, Ted Lilly (5)
Most HRs - Tim Redding (2)
Likes to face - Hendrickson! Finally, someone who can hit this guy (.750/.786/1.083). And Redding.
Hates to face - Kyle Kendrick (.063/.118/.063)
No clue whatsoever - Roy Halladay (0-9)
Fred Lewis
Most PA against - Aaron Cook (24), he's hit a few singles (.273/.333/.273)
Most hits - Dan Haren (9)
Most strikeouts - Haren (8)
Most HRs - 22 different guys (1)
Likes to face - Jason Hammel (.778/.818/1.444). And John Lackey, Jeff Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Adam Wainwright...
Hates to face - Hmm... Chris Young? (.167/.333/.167)
No clue whatsoever - Max Scherzer (0-8)
Adam Lind
Most PA against - Matt Garza (31)
Most hits - James Shields (9)
Most strikeouts - Andy Pettitte, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka (8)
Most HRs - Shields and Scott Feldman (3)
Likes to face - Joba Chamblerlain (.571/.625/.929), and he's pretty happy when Feldman or Gavin Floyd is on the mound.
Hates to face - Matsuzaka (.050/.095/.050), of course. Millwood and Hendrickson (again!) have been a problem.
No clue whatsoever - Lind went 0-19 against Dice-K before lining a single the last time they met. So now it's Buehrle (0-12).
Travis Snider
Most PA against - Gavin Floyd (14)
Most hits - Carl Pavano (5)
Most strikeouts - Floyd (6)
Most HRs - Kevin Slowey and Sergio Mitre (2)
Likes to face - Slowey (4-5, 2 HRs).
Hates to face - Shields? (1-9, 4 KS)
No clue whatsoever - Zakc Greinke and Jake Peavy (0-6)
John McDonald
Most PA against - Tim Wakefield (31)
Most hits - Andy Pettitte and David Wells (8)
Most strikeouts - Scott Kazmir (6)
Most HRs - Jerrod Washburn (2)
Likes to face - Washburn, I would think!
Hates to face - Johan Santana (.077/.143/.154)
No clue whatsoever - Julian Tavarez (0-11)
Jose Molina
Most PA against - Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer (21)
Most hits - Garcia (8)
Most strikeouts - Randy Johnson (8). Molina had 11 ABs against the Unit - the other three were double, home run, groundout
Most HRs - 22 different guys (1)
Likes to face - Hendrickson! (.545/.545/.818)
Hates to face - Josh Beckett (.125./.125/.125) and Roy Halladay (.071/.133/.143)
No clue whatsoever - C.C. Sabathia (0-11)
DeWayne Wise
Most PA against - Justin Verlander (16)
Most hits - Verlander (6)
Most strikeouts - Roger Clemens (4)
Most HRs - Carl Pavano (2)
Likes to face - Verlander and Jon Garland.
Hates to face - Pavano's retired him in every other AB.
No clue whatsoever - Joe Nathan (0-6)
And, in the Gone But Not Forgotten category:
Alex Gonzalez
Most PA against - Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood (57)
Most hits - Millwood (16)
Most strikeouts - Al Leiter (13)
Most HRs - Michael Bacsik (3)
Likes to face - Roy Oswalt (.435/.458/.696)
Hates to face - Livan Hernandez (.098/.156/.122). He's also pretty happy Maddux retired.
No clue whatsoever - Eric Gagne (0-10, 6 Ks)
And a Happy Birthday shout-out to my old friend Sally, my old mentor George Bernard Shaw, and that old rogue Mick Jagger.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100726002325246