23 July 2010: We're Gonna Build Something This Summer

Friday, July 23 2010 @ 07:35 AM EDT

Contributed by: Alex Obal

We'll put it back together, raise up a giant ladder, with love and trust and friends and hammers, this summer. We're gonna lean this ladder up against the water tower, climb to the top and drink and talk, this summer.

This is usually when I start to feel like a sucker for staying invested in the Blue Jays' season. Like I ought to know by now what 5.5 games back really means. Like I have a moral obligation not to pay $9 for stadium beer anymore because it might register as a vote for terminal mediocrity. The story is always the same: the Blue Jays are in an awkward spot, unable to sell because they're kinda close and they know they'd win at least one AL division going away, unable to buy because they're too inferior to the beasts of the East. So they hold steady, offering the faint hope of a 15-game win streak, refusing to wave the white flag while doing little to build for the future. It's no fun. And as much as I like baseball for its own sake and am loath to stifle that for any reason, it's hard to shake the impression that my continued interest in the Blue Jays might be interpreted by a corporate owner as satisfaction.

But this year, I'm not conflicted, because the team is offering more than faint hope and baseball for its own sake. (And the 2010 Blue Jays are a very watchable team.) More importantly, Alex Anthopoulos' actions in the trade and scouting markets have backed up his words from this past winter. So far, it looks like the organization is on the right track. I'm unapologetically looking forward to the next two months. Who's with me?

As for yesterday's game...

(Tigers 5, Jays 2.)

Romero battled the dreaded Tigers without his best stuff, received a few defensive assists, and made it through 7 innings tied at 2. Still, it's worrying to see Romero show up without his best stuff in the first place. He fell off precipitously in the second half of 2009 - just stopped missing bats altogether. We know he has the talent, the heart and the brain; it'd be nice to see the endurance assert itself over the next two months.

For the record, as Magpie pointed out in yesterday's thread, Cito Gaston was going to pull Romero after one batter either way.

It was a good game, despite the outcome. I don't have much to say about it. (Where did Justin Verlander's changeup come from, anyway?)

Instead, I will harp on how depressing the Royals are.

The Importance of Batting Average

Selected American League Ranks of the 2010 Kansas City Royals Ofense:

2nd in hits
1st in average
1st in fewest strikeouts
7th in OBP
10th in slugging

and the kicker:

12th in Offensive WPA

Third last in the AL, at a majestic -5.60 WPA heading into last night's game. In other words, in a WPA sense, their offense's contribution to winning games has actually been worse than you'd expect from their production. Strange - I thought teams of tough outs and contact hitters were supposed to be fantastic at the fundamentals, at clutch hitting, at GTMI. In other words, overachievers. Say it ain't so. In other news, anyone here wish we could watch more of the spring 2008 Jays? Didn't think so. I'll take the homers, thanks.

For the hell of it, here's a small table with each AL team's rank in offensive WPA, BA, OBP and SLG:



Speaking of WPA, only nine teams in the majors have positive WPA from their hitters, and the Jays are not among them. Toronto ranks 11th with -0.11 WPA.

A fabulous prize* to anyone who can name the top 5 Blue Jay hitters in WPA without looking. (*The prize is not fabulous.)

Tonight, it's round 2 in Detroit. Mid-major reliever Shaun Marcum, a righty who profiles as a #4 starter, goes for the Jays. He'll be in tough against the projectability, ace potential and velo of premium talent Rick Porcello. We're screwed. Tigers -115. First pitch, 7:05.

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