TDIB 22 June 2010: Cardinals Preview

Tuesday, June 22 2010 @ 08:19 AM EDT

Contributed by: Dave Rutt

The Jays had a day off on Monday after taking two of three from San Francisco. Next come three home games against the Cardinals in which they'll face three pretty freaking good pitchers: Jamie Garcia tonight, Chris Carpenter on Wednesday, and Adam Wainwright on Thursday. Let's take a Fangraphy look at those pitchers.

Tuesday - Jamie Garcia

Tonight's starter has been one of the best starters in baseball this year, thanks primarily to his incredible ground ball rate of almost 60%. His peripherals suggest he's been lucky, though, so hopefully we'll see some regression to the mean tonight.

Season GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2010 13 79.1 7.49 3.97 0.23 0.279 84.40% 58.40% 4.00% 1.59 3.19 3.72 1.8

Wednesday - Chris Carpenter

After basically missing all of 2007 and 2008, Carpenter seems to be right back to doing what he does best: getting ground balls, walking nobody, and striking out a fair number. In other words, being great. Seriously, look at those numbers - that is consistency. He had some luck with fly balls last year, but otherwise his stats look awfully similar. The Jays will counter with their ace, Ricky Romero, in what will be a great match-up.

Season GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2006 32 221.2 7.47 1.75 0.85 0.282 76.30% 53.30% 11.50% 3.09 3.44 3.32 5.2
2009 28 192.2 6.73 1.78 0.33 0.272 79.50% 55.00% 4.60% 2.24 2.78 3.38 5.6
2010 15 101.2 7.79 2.3 0.97 0.287 80.10% 54.10% 13.10% 2.83 3.78 3.5 1.6

Thursday - Adam Wainwright

Wainwright was a top contender for the Cy Young last year, and this year he's been just about as good. How did he go from being a pretty good pticher in 2008 to an elite pitcher the last two years? Apart from the Dave Duncan effect, anyway? Looks like the ascent can be attributed primarily to a rise in strikeouts (by 2 K/9) and ground ball % (about 5%) while maintaining his excellent control. Nothing particularly out of the ordinary there.

Season GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2008 20 132 6.2 2.32 0.82 0.281 76.00% 45.90% 8.50% 3.2 3.78 4.06 2.2
2009 34 233 8.19 2.55 0.66 0.309 80.40% 50.70% 8.30% 2.63 3.11 3.36 5.7
2010 15 109 8.34 2.39 0.5 0.264 80.30% 52.30% 6.80% 2.23 2.9 3.29 2.9

These are some tough pitchers, and the Cardinals' offense isn't too shabby, either. The good guys should be happy if they take two out of three this week.

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