TDIB 15 June 2010: Marcum to the Rescue

Tuesday, June 15 2010 @ 03:38 PM EDT

As has so often been the case this year.

We knew the offense would come down eventually. And boy has it crashed hard (excluding last night's game). Fortunately, this team has a good enough rotation that a losing streak like last year's season-killer just isn't very likely.

Marcum has been the stopper this year, going 6-1 in games after the Jays lose. But what's nice about this year's team is that Marcum doesn't need to be the stopper. There are four guys in the rotation who can go out and dominate on any given day, and with Jesse Litsch back and Scrabble rounding into form in AAA, even the 5th spot looks promising. Let's take a look at the four guys who have consistently been in the rotation this year, with some funtistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

Player	Season	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Shaun Marcum	2010	14	92.1	6.53	1.75	8.21	0.78	0.282	73.60%	40.70%	7.00%	3.31	3.47	4.04	2.1
	Career	103	489	7.01	2.93	8.32	1.29	0.277	77.90%	40.50%	11.50%	3.83	4.56	4.41	5.9
Ricky Romero	2010	13	90.1	9.07	3.39	7.57	0.6	0.299	76.30%	55.60%	9.80%	3.29	3.16	3.21	2.4
	Career	42	268.1	7.78	3.79	8.99	0.8	0.317	75.70%	54.50%	11.90%	3.96	3.93	3.8	5.1
Brett Cecil	2010	10	64.1	6.58	2.24	6.72	0.7	0.242	71.90%	44.30%	6.70%	3.22	3.41	3.99	1.5
	Career	28	157.2	6.62	3.08	9.36	1.26	0.302	73.40%	43.30%	11.60%	4.45	4.57	4.4	1.9
Brandon Morrow	2010	13	70	10.29	4.89	8.36	0.64	0.338	67.30%	40.20%	7.40%	5.14	3.6	3.99	1.5
	Career	144	267.2	9.55	5.58	7.63	0.94	0.297	73.90%	36.60%	9.00%	4.27	4.31	4.53	2.7

As you can see, the highest xFIP among these four guys is Marcum's 4.04, and when you have four sub-4 ERA guys (in skill, not results), that is a great rotation. Although, "four sub-4 guys" is kind of cheating, since three of those four guys are basically right at the 4 mark.

The one who isn't is Ricky Romero, who has been the best of the Jays' starters this year. Romero has improved across the board: his strike-out rate is up by over a K an inning while his walk rate is down a little and his hit rate is down a lot. Romero also has by far the best GB% of these guys. He does it all, and looks like an excellent pitcher.

A brief aside: the "career" numbers listed above do in fact include 2010 numbers, so it's somewhat inaccurate to say, for example, that Romero's K-rate has increased by 1.3/9. In reality, it's increased by more than that; his pre-2010 K rate would be less than 7.78.

Marcum, the most experienced of the bunch, has been mostly the same guy as he was pre-injury, but has significantly improved his already-excellent control, which has brought his xFIP down around 4.

Cecil has been great for a second-year pitcher, especially of late, but has had a little BABIP luck and his 3.22 ERA will probably go up a bit. Still, his performance has been excellent, particularly his control. Cecil always posted good K-rates and GB rates in the minors, and if he can go back to that formula to a greater extent as he gains experience, he could be very good.

We all know the story with Morrow. When he can locate, he dominates. This year, his walk rate is down (though still very high at 4.89/9), and his xFIP indicates he's had some bad luck. Still, with a guy with Morrow's stuff, one is always left dreaming about what could be. Fortunately, Morrow's last few starts have shown that he may be starting to turn a corner. But even if he doesn't, a guy who posts an xFIP around 4 is a major league starter.

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