Jays Best Draft Picks

Friday, May 21 2010 @ 01:55 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

With the draft coming up I thought it would be interesting to take a look at who the Jays have taken and how they did.

Taking full advantage of Baseball-Reference again I can sort by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and filter to Jays by round. While not a perfect measure (none are) WAR does provide a good guide to overall value. 2 WAR per year = lowest you want from a regular while 10 WAR in a season is a Barry Bonds season (only Clemens did that as a Jay).

First Round
49 picks made: 1 over 30 WAR, 4 over 20, 2 over 10, 8 more over 2, 3 in positive territory, 13 negatives, 18 who never made it.
Highlights of those picks:

JP Ricciardi era: Aaron Hill (15 WAR), Rickey Romero (2.3), Travis Snider (0.1) with the rest either negative or in the minors
Gord Ash era: Roy Halladay (47), Vernon Wells (22), Alexis Rios (9), Felipe Lopez (7), Billy Koch (6), Gabe Gross (5), Dustin McGowan (1.7) with the 3 others negative or in the minors.
Pat Gillick era: Shawn Green (29), Chris Carpenter (24), Lloyd Moseby (24), Shannon Stewart (19.8), Steve Karsay (10), John Cerutti (6), Ed Sprague (2), Matt Williams (0.1), while the other 17 (!) are negative or minors only.

Obviously the jury is still out on JP, while Ash had a great record (7 useful, 3 not) and Gillick had issues (7 or 8 good, 17 or 18 not depending how you rate Williams 0.1).

What about other rounds? You might be surprised to know Halladay is not the WAR leader for Jay draft picks. In fact, he isn't even the 1st or 2nd best pitcher.

2nd round: David Wells 50.1, Derek Bell 11.6, David Bush 5.7, Craig Wilson 3.8, Tim Crabtree 3.7, and Brandon League 1.7 with another 3 over 0 and 7 negative and 19 never making it.
3rd round: John Olerud 56.8, Jimmy Key 45.6, David Weathers 9.0, Chris Stynes 6.7, Shaun Marcum 6.0, Greg Myers 5.9, Adam Lind 4.6, Ron Romanick 3.1, with 3 more over 0 and 3 more below 0 and 21 not making it (yet).
4th round: 1.6 each for Xavier Hernandez and Casey Janssen with 3 others positive and 3 more negative (kind of a trend here) and 25 not making it.
5th round: Dave Stieb 53.0, Pat Hentgen 31.2, Mike Young 22.2, Mike Timlin 18.1, Marc Rzepczynski 1.3 with 2 more + and 3 more -
6 - 10 round: (1+ WAR only) Jesse Barfield 35.7 (9th round), Casey Blake 20.0 (7th), Glenallen Hill 9.2 (9th round), Ryan Freel 6.1 (10th), Josh Phelps 3.3 (10th), Scott Livingstone 2.2 (6th), Cris Carpenter 2.1 (7th), Pat Borders 1.9 (6th)
11th-25th rounds: Jeff Kent 59.4 (20th), Alex Gonzalez 7.4 (13th), Reed Johnson 5.4 (17th), Brandon Lyon 5.0 (14th), Jay Gibbons (4.3), Mark Hendrickson 4.1 (20th), Ryan Thompson 3.6 (13th), Jesse Litsch 3.4 (24th), Ben Weber 2.3 (20th), Willie Blair 1.7 (11th), Vinnie Chulk 1.4 (12th-only one to make it)
26th to 50th rounds: Woody Williams 26.0 (28), Orlando Hudson 18.7 (33rd & 43rd, signed after drafted 43rd round), Darren Hall 1.8 (28th)
51st and beyond: Chris Woodward 1.0 (54th) - last guy drafted to make it was Tom Marsh -0.9 (70th) but he was signed by Philly later on after being re-drafted in the 16th round.
Guys who didn't sign : Scott Erickson 21.9 (44th), Jim Abbott 17.2 (36th), Mike Henneman 12.5 (27th), Ryan Franklin 11.7 (25th), Jeffrey Hammonds 9.9 (9th round), Darren Lewis 6.8 (45th), Chad Qualls 6.0 (52nd), Brad Hawpe 2.7 (46th), Mike Matheny 2.6 (31st), Rich DeLucia 2.2 (15th)

No one has made the majors who the Jays drafted in the 29th, 34th, 35th, 39th, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 47th, 48th. Back in the old days (pre-1998) the draft went until no one picked anyone rather than the 50 limit of today. Those extra round produced no one in the 51st, 53rd, 55th, 57th, 59th, 60th, 61st, 62nd, 63rd, 64th, 66th, 67th, 68th, 69th, 71st, 72nd, 73rd, 74th, 75th (last round the Jays ever drafted someone in).

So the best players ever drafted by the Jays (via WAR, 20+ scores) are...

Jeff Kent 59.4 (20th)
John Olerud 56.8 (3rd)
Dave Stieb 53.0 (5th)
David Wells 50.1 (2nd)
Roy Halladay 46.7 (1st)
Jimmy Key 45.6 (3rd)
Jesse Barfield 35.7 (9th)
Pat Hentgen 31.2 (5th)
Shawn Green 29.4 (1st)
Woody Williams 26.0 (28)
Chris Carpenter 24.2 (1st)
Lloyd Moseby 24.1 (1st)
Mike Young 22.2 (5th) [tie]
Vernon Wells 22.2 (1st) [tie]
Scott Erickson 21.9 (44th - did not sign)
Casey Blake 20.0 (7th)

Interesting list eh? Kent, Olerud, Stieb, Wells - the 50+'ers - all belong in the HOVG (Hall Of the Very Good) with all deserving more considering for the HOF (Hall Of Fame) than they got/will get. The 40's have Halladay & Key - Halladay doesn't pass the 'bus' test yet (if he was hit by a bus today would he get in?) while Key is a solid HOVG guy. 20's to 30's has the guys who had solid All-Star careers but no one seriously thinks twice about the HOF for them (Barfield/Hentgen/Green/Williams/Carpenter/Moseby/Young/Wells/Erickson/Blake). Seems to divide out well.

As to what it takes to be a HOF'er...

For hitters only 20 players have 100+ WAR (A-Rod at 100). 45 have 75+ (Pete Rose at 75). Jeff Kent ranks #111 (Andruw Jones just below him, Dave Winfield & Sammy Sosa just above).
For pitchers only 6 have 100+ WAR (Young, Clemens, Walter Johnson, Seaver, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols in that order). 23 have 75+ (Pedro Martinez just over). Stieb is #67 between Billy Pierce & Bob Caruthers just above Early Wynn. Halladay is barely below Dwight Gooden.

It is good to see that of the guys drafted who the Jays should've opened their wallets a bit more on doesn't include any HOF'ers with Erickson and Abbott being the big "If Only" guys. Of course, the guys not drafted includes many HOF'ers but so does every teams list.

So what do we see? That the Jays top 10 can come from anywhere (2 each from the 1st, 3rd, and 5th rounds plus one each for the 2/9/20/28th rounds). That the 20's can produce good quality (Kent, Williams) but that it is rare to find gems after the first 25 rounds (Hudson and Williams the only ones over 2 WAR, plus 8 unsigned guys who probably were near impossible signs anyways). However, HOF'ers can be missed (Mike Piazza in the 62nd round a famous example) so, as Joaquin Andujar said, youneverknow. The next Jays All-Star or HOF'er (after Kent & Halladay I suspect) could show up at any time and a 1st round pedigree is no lock.

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