Yesterday we probed into very specific Blue Jay questions. Today we look at the big picture, wins, expectations and attendance.
1. What do you want to see from the Blue Jay organization this season? What will make you feel that the franchise is on the right track?
I want them to win, dammit! I'll believe they're on the right track when they're winning, and I want them to win now. Always. Accept no substitute! I simply don't believe in punting a season for development purposes, in retooling and rebuilding. I absolutely believe each and every team in the majors has a genuine opportunity to win a title each and every year. Yes, that means you, Pittsburgh and Kansas City. It's still March, we all start out with the same record. So just win, baby! (DFM)
I want to see the Jays continue to develop players who will be keys to success in 2011 and 2012, that means you JP Arencibia; Brett Wallace; Tyler Pastornicky; Justin Jackson; Brad Emaus; Moises Sierra; Eric Thames; Marc Rzepczynski; Brett Cecil; Zach Stewart; Brad Mills; Bobby Ray; Chad Jenkins; Kyle Drabek; etc. etc. I would also like to see Travis Snider establish himself. The 2010 draft might not help in 2011 or 2012 but at some point we will need replacements. Is that too much to ask for?
I would like to see a competitive team with some big confidence building wins over the division rivals. And I need AA to trade excess players for some good prospects at the trade deadline. Finally it would be nice to see some of the minor league teams make the playoffs, especially at the AAA and AA levels - Gerry
I want to see 95 wins. That may be asking a bit much this year. I would settle for a team that contenders find really goddamn annoying. I would also like to root for a team that clearly enjoys playing baseball. As for signs that the team is on the right track? Adeiny Hechevarria, assuming he does sign, is one. What else? Not paying significant money for any mediocre veterans, ever. Getting as much value for their established players as they can this summer. Good seasons from Drabek, Wallace, d'Arnaud and Morrow would suggest that the talent evaluators here know what they're doing. (obal)
I want to see the team not give up. To prove to me that they're on the right track... they have to win big games (by which I mean games for which they know there's going to be an unusually big crowd, like Opening Day, or something like that), they have to overperform their Pythagorean, their young players have to take a step forward (at least some of them), Anthopoulos has to do smart things, and the fans have to turn out in large numbers. (Ownership also has stuff to prove to me, but I'm not sure there'd be any evidence of that in-season.) -ME
A continued focus on maximizing long term value. Most notably, in terms of being most visible - being sure that organization philosophy trumps managerial nonsense, particularly in terms of Snider and other young players. This extends as well to maximizing trade and signing opportunities which I'm confident AA is doing and will do. - WillRain
Development and a long-term focus. Baseball teams will always be ni flux, with players developing and others taking steps backwards, but Toronto has a lot of high-level pitching (of various talent) and it would be nice at the end of the year if there was a clearer picture about who could contribute or not. This should be the year where the future of pitchers like Purcey, Janssen, Brad Mills and so forth becomes clearer. What will Jesse Litsch look like when he returns and will McGowan ever pitch in the majors again? As well, we need a better year on the farm than we had last year and a strong 2010 draft that indicates the ownership is willing to put money where Anthopolous's mouth is. I'd like to see the major league team win, but if they don't while the youngsters develop and the future becomes clearer that's fine. Thomas
Patience. And a huge investment in the June draft. I'd like them to spare no expense with high impact talent that could fall to them. And if that involves spreading false rumours about Bryce Harper and PED to the ten teams drafting ahead of them, so be it. Otherwise, just a commitment to the youth movement. Let's ensure Snider gets 500 plate appearances, and rookie pitchers aren't held back in favour of guys like Eveland and Tallet. -Braden
My Toronto Star Season Passes already!!! On a serious note, I hope for a competitive team and that they can avoid a 2004-type season from hell. I hope they actually sign their top draft picks and not cheap out like last year. I'll really be looking to the minor league side of things for signs of hope and I hope their top affiliates can actually be competitive because they have got to learn how to win somewhere! - #2JB.
Kids playing, fun at the stadium, hopeful newspaper articles by September - John N
2. How many games will the Jays win this season?
68. I think the talent level is better than that but I think the Jays will clean house in July and the new younger Jays will take a while to catch up to the major leagues. Also several of the pitchers may have innings limitations this season which could mean the second tier of starters would be on the mound in september - Gerry
I want them to win, I think they can win, but I don't necessarily believe that they will win. Here's my point of departure: swapping Halladay for Marcum et. al adds about 35 in the Runs Allowed column, bringing them up to 805 or so; swapping Scutaro for Gonzalez removed about 45 runs in the Runs Scored column, taking them down to about 750. Everything is negotiable, but that type of team should go about 76-86. (DFM)
Let's say 80 wins. That may be a bit high, but in this case I'd rather miss high than miss low.
I'm on record as being very pessimistic about the Jays, long-term. I think it would be very difficult for any team to win under the conditions that the Jays are playing in. Not impossible, but difficult, and I don't think the Jays have enough of the ingredients of success here, nor will they ever. Which means that I have a different perspective for some of these questions from everybody else. Like, there was some talk of trading Aaron Hill. Whether it's a good idea to trade Hill depends on when you think the Jays will be ready to go over the top. If it's in two years, you don't trade him. If it's in six years, then you do trade him. I don't think they'll be ready in twenty years, so to me it doesn't matter if you trade him or not. Although I like him as a player and would therefore like them to keep him around.
But I still want to see the team do smart things. After all, they don't have the luxury of pessimism; they have to believe that they can succeed, or why get out of bed in the morning? Plus it's no fun to watch people messing things up. (Not that I think they will be so bad that they'll mess everything up.)
Anyway, there's no reason why the Jays can't have the best year available to them. There's enough talent on this roster that a strong tailwind can carry them to 80 wins. I'm looking forward to watching them. -ME
83 - I think the team will struggle in the first half but play impressive ball in August and September.
70. But I don't think it'll be a depressing year. I just can't see many victories when John Buck, Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Edwin Encarnacion comprise 44.4% of a lineup. That said, there'll be more than enough exciting years from young guys that we'll all have more than enough to froth over for the coming years. -Braden
70. This accounts for the fact I expect Anthopolous to trade away five or six players on this roster over the course of the season and the replacements, in some cases at least, won't be as strong this season. There will be some rough stretches at times, but I also think we'll see some energy from the team over the last couple of months. Thomas
We got a 70 and a 68 so I'll pick 69. That number just makes me giggle! A reverse 69 would obviously be better (I'm thinking about 96 so get your minds out of the gutter!) -#2JB.
75 wins. This team can contend if Lind, Snider and Arencibia hit like beasts. The team can also do a colossal faceplant and lose 100 if Hill gets hurt and Snider provides nothing. (obal)
95 and the AL East title...well, I can dream, but more likely 82 and 4th place thanks to a surprising staff. - John N
3. How many fans will show up (the Jays 2009 attendance was 1.87 million)?
1.7 million. Much of the fans just want to catch a game. when the team was good more fans didn't show up so when the team is weaker those fans never showed up to go away - Gerry
The fans will never come back. The fans will never come back. They will never come back. This team will be lucky to draw 1.4 million this year. Subsequent years might be better... but not too much better. -ME
Holding steady at around 1.8 million. (DFM)
Not really my area of expertise but I'd say 1.5 is a reasonable guess. - WillRain
I figure they'll lose 100k or so just based on the incredibly low expectations. Things will be bleak in May and June but people will start to see the silver linings at some point after the All-Star break. One of the rookie pitchers will do something wacky like throw a no-hitter and the team will win nine in a row in August and we'll see big crowds come September. Really. -Braden
I'm with the more optimistic people who don't see the crowds falling off too much. The 2009 Jays were a really depressing team to watch in the second half, and the attendance figures reflected it. If some of the hitting prospects make the Show, that should grab a few people's attention. A bad young team is more fun to watch than a bad old team, at least until the novelty wears off. That works in the Jays' favor. (obal)
I'm interested to see how many people show up for game two after the Opening Day wannabes hibernate for the year. I could see crowds just barely clearing 10,000 for some weeknights again like that Twins series in September. Like Will, I'll go with 1.5-million fans. -#2JB.
1.65 seems about right. The team will draw over 45,000 on Opening Day and if Halladay starts when Philadelphia comes to town. Otherwise, they'll be lucky if they break 35,000 a couple times for weekend games in the summer against New York and Boston. As Niall says, some games will be painful. Thomas
1.9 million fans - the kids will get people excited and the media will be pushing the Jays in the post JP era - John N
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100325154430882