Now that we have covered all the divisions and the other four teams in the AL East it is time to turn our attention to the home team, the Blue Jays. Our roundtable of prognosticators have opined on many topics. Feel free to add your two cents.
1. What is your prediction for Vernon Wells performance in 2010?
Vernon will hit around .275 with 30 home runs. His performance will improve from 2009 as he gets back to being a league average hitter for an outfielder. His defense will continue to decline. - Gerry
Vernon will hit around his career 280/329/470 mark but with less power (440 SLG). - John N
Predict what Wells does? Are you serious? (DFM)
Wells has had two superstar-quality seasons in his career. I don't think we're going to get another one of those, but I do think he's capable of playing decently. At this point, though, he'll be perceived as a failure no matter what he does. -ME
Wells's expectations are so low amongst the casual fan that I don't see how he can't 'overachieve', at least in that sense. People seem to think he's essentially written off. I tend to think he can still be a decent player. I'll go 285/340/460 with 26 HRs. -Braden
I'm on record in a previous thread saying V-Dub will bounce back. Let's try .280-25-90. - #2JB
20 homers and a .330 OBP; barely-adequate CF defense. Most of the optimistic predictions here have Wells hitting a lot of homers. That makes sense to me - power is the only area where it's at all likely Wells might bounce back. Unless he makes some major adjustments, he's very unlikely to hit for a high BABIP, as he is a popup machine who's lost a step or three. But his homer rate? That could go in the right direction. He isn't going to get any respect from AL pitchers to start the year. That will help. (obal)
2. Which, or how many, of these twelve players do you expect to be traded by July 31st? John Buck, Jose Molina, Lyle Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Shawn Camp, Jason Frasor, or Jeremy Accardo?
Six: Molina, Overbay, Gonzalez, Gregg and Frasor plus one of the others - Gerry
I suspect no more than 3 will actually be traded. I'd lean towards Lyle Overbay, Frasor, and Downs - John N
Downs and Overbay. (DFM)
Wait, you mean we're allowed to trade players at the deadline? Did anyone tell the last GM? (obal)
It's really hard to make trades these days! I'll guess that none of them will be traded. -ME
The John Buck Sweepstakes should be heating up by June. Other than that, I'll say Accardo gets DFA'd and dealt, while Overbay and Downs are dealt by the deadline.- Braden
Five. Where there's smoke, there's fire considering all the speculation about Downs so I think he'll be Downs and out. I'll mark Overbay down as over and out as well as Camp and Tallet if contenders need some depth in the bullpen. I don't see an extended stay in the cards for Accardo. Enough puns for you? -#2JB.
3. Who remains a Jay the longest - Cito, Overbay, or Frasor?
Cito technically because he will still be a Jays employee after the season. However as manager he will be there at the end of September, the others will be gone - Gerry
It's a tie - Gaston and Frasor are here through the end of the season, but they won't be in a Toronto uniform after that. (DFM)
Cito will outlast (or tie) Overbay as neither will be here in 2011. Frasor...hrm... I suspect Cito outlasts him as well - John N
When do Frasor and Overbay become free agents? That's how long they'll be here. Gaston, of course, will be a Blue Jay for life, which I'm entirely cool with as long as he doesn't get to make any important decisions. -ME
Well, technically, Cito. But otherwise, I suspect Frasor will outlast Overbay. But I've been known to nail 50/50 propositions at about a 20% clip. -Braden
J-Fray has somehow managed to stick around since 2004 and he has Cito's support right now so I don't see him going anywhere. I think Cito's going to call it quits before the season comes to an end as he'll decide he's had enough. Overbay was rumoured to be one of the rabble rousers on mutiny weekend during the final series of 2009 in Baltimore so I do think he'll be the first out the door. -#2JB.
4. Would you prefer to see Brian Tallet or a rookie in the rotation on opening day? If a rookie, which one?
I am OK with Tallet in the rotation on opening day. The rookie pitchers moved very quickly last season so a few months in AAA won't hurt them. However, barring injury, I would expect Tallet not to be in the rotation come July 1st. One other advantage of Tallet in the rotation is that it could improve his trade value and the Jay's might be able to move him for prospects if he pitched reasonably - Gerry
Rookie by far. Tallet is what he is - a mediocre starter who will fill a slot until a kid is ready. I'd rather see Rzep or Cecil take their lumps - John N
Only if there's a need for Rzepczynski and Cecil to do some work in AAA. But Tallet is strictly a placeholder for those guys. I wouldn't mind seeing the kids take their lumps in long relief, if it's lumps they're taking. I'd rather not see them get beat up in the rotation - it's bad for everyone. (DFM)
I think the risk of the kids getting beat up is overstated. But I do think you can lower their expected 2012 walk rate, up to a certain point, by giving them more time in the minors. This is strictly a player-development decision and not a build-the-best-roster one, as 2010 looks like a rebuilding year. With that in mind, I'll give the front office the benefit of the doubt here regardless of what they do. I think the AL is figuring Tallet out; trick pitchers usually have a finite shelf life. NL teams - San Francisco? - should really consider trading for him. As it is, it does feel warm and fuzzy to watch good soldiers get a chance to shine. And I like "Gimme Shelter." (obal)
What they said. I don't mind watching Tallet for a while; there's no rush. -ME
I'll always go for the rookie. (You can have this boat, or whatever's in the mystery box. The mystery box! It could be a boat!). Tallet's cool and all, but I love projecting rookie hurlers to 300 wins when they perform well in their first month. -Braden
"Tallet like it is" has his moments as a starter and I would like to see if he can master his two-seamer and get more groundball outs. I would prefer to see him in the pen but I see nothing wrong with giving the young guns more time in the minors because I don't think there's a Strasburg-type prospect that's busting down the doors right now. -#2JB
5. Who should be the closer?
Jason Frasor, although he is one of the slowest pitchers around in a high stress situation I think he won the job last season and deserves it - Gerry
Ditto. I can't believe I'm saying this. Frasor, holder of the Justin Speier seat as Magpie's Whipping Boy. But he won the job, fairly and squarely. (DFM)Frasor to start, but I bet someone else will be before the year is out although it is anyone's guess as to who it will be in 2011. - John N
I'd actually pick Downs. His curveball is the best pitch any Toronto reliever has; I think he overpowers hitters in a way Frasor doesn't. Then again, if the idea is to go for compensation picks, sure, why not ride Frasor. If he has a particularly good year he might even get signed as a type A. Which is more than you can say for the wrong answer to this question. (obal)
I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference, but I have some affection for Frasor as a player and wouldn't mind seeing him get some glory. -ME
Frasor. He always looks terrified out there. But one of my lasting memories of 2009 was when BJ almost blew that huge lead in Cleveland and Frasor came in to strike out Victor Martinez to end it. He's my closer after that. It's a pretty good thing I'm not a manager. -Braden
I'm split on this one. Frasor's development of his split-change made all the difference in 2009 and he pitched like he did when he first arrived on the scene in 2004. However, I always feel at ease with Downs on the mound and he's one heck of a Plan B to Frasor's Plan A. Gregg's tendency to give up the gopher ball makes me nervous. -#2JB.
6. Will Cito do the right thing and NOT platoon (future superstar) Travis Snider?
No, he probably will platoon Snider as in the Shawn Green development plan. Look for Lind, Reed or McCoy in left when a lefty is on the mound. Those are the Cito rules - Gerry
I wouldn't mind if he did - that was also the Fred McGriff development plan - but Gaston has already said that he wants Snider playing every day and if he's not ready for the entire job, he should be in AAA. (DFM)
Snider will be out there on his own fairly quick I suspect, by June at the latest unless he keeps K'ing at a crazy pace - John N
I wouldn't be surprised if Gaston didn't play him at all. -ME
Unfortunately, I doubt it. He'll be hitting 240/320/430 in May and all of a sudden it'll be McCoy Mania in right. I fear Travis will be in AAA come June which seems ridiculous given he can OPS 1.000 there without much effort. -Braden
Probably not. Granted, Snider spent time in the minors last year but he only got 40 official at-bats against southpaws in '09. He'd be lucky to break triple digits in that category. On a side note, Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster pegs Snider as a potential break out candidate because of his ability to go deep to the opposite field as five of his nine homers went over the left field fence. -#2JB
Starry-eyed optimism: I think Snider is going to pulverize the AL in April and destroy this question. (obal)
7. Aaron Hill's 2009 - fluke or new level of ability?
Career year. Last season he had a lot of home runs just get over the wall and this season he will see a lot of pitchers pitching him away. I can see HIll walking more as pitchers are more careful with him and I can see his batting average staing high but I think the home runs will come down - Gerry
Hill had a career year. No question. I suspect a low 100's OPS+ is what we should be looking for, 90's being more likely than a 110's. - John N
I think the homers were a fluke, but if he gets on base a little more he can come up with a comparable level of productivity. And if wishes were horses... well, there'd be a lot more crap in the streets. (DFM)
Both, obviously. I think he'll have more seasons of comparable quality. Was '09 the best of them? Sure, maybe. -ME
I think we'll see a pretty big drop in HRs but a rise in 2Bs and BBs. He'll still be a well above average second baseman in the AL and critics will grudgingly admit that JP signed him to a hell of a deal.- Braden
What Braden said. (obal)
Hill has even said not to be expect last year's numbers again. His efforts to draw more walks may not lead to as many hacks over the fence but I think .280 to .290 with 20-plus bombs and 100 RBI is not out of the question. -#2JB.
8. Name one starting pitcher who will last the whole year in the rotation, barring injury.
Shaun Marcum, he just finds a way to succeed - Gerry
Romero - the Jays need kids to succeed and he is best positioned for it - John N
Roy Halladay. Oh - well, barring injury, Marcum and Romero. (DFM)
None. They'll all have periods of ineffectiveness and there'll be a constant shuffle. If the Jays are lucky, this will be a lot less chaotic than it sounds. -ME
Romero. Something tells me we're all going to be surprised at the career he puts up as a Jay. Except for me, 'cause I said it here. -Braden
I'd have to say R-R Cool Jay. Other than a strained oblique last season, Romero held up fairly well and he's at least two years removed from the shoulder and elbow problems he had in the minors during 2006 and 2007. -#2JB
I submitted this question and phrased it poorly. It really should read, "Name one pitcher who won't be sent back down." As it is, Romero and Marcum and maybe Morrow are the only sensible answers. I was going to profess my faith in Marc Rzepczynski here. I think when he comes off the DL he'll be in Toronto for good. He's been so dominant at every level that even though he has pitch-count issues, I wouldn't mind letting him fight through them against big-league hitters. (obal)
9. Will McGowan come anywhere close to his previous form?
Not in 2010. This will be a year of stop and go as he builds up his arm. He could be back to the old Dustin in 2011 however - Gerry
Given his previous form was around a 100 ERA+ it shouldn't be hard. Especially if in the pen. I'd expect him to be useful in mid-summer, valuable in September. - John N
What John said - his previous form wasn't exactly Walter Johnson Mark II. It's still what he could become that we long, like some fond lover, to see. In our lifetime. (DFM)
I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't pitch in the majors at all in 2010. I don't think we've seen the last of him, though. -ME
I wish for nothing more. I feel I've been personally invested in Dustin for close to a decade now. But I fear we've seen his best (and his healthiest). Optimistically, I'll put him down for 13 starts and not much to write home about. I hope they're patient with him, though, because I'd hate to see a Carpenter 2.0 happen somewhere else. -Braden
I want to say yes but my expectations for him are below sea level. He's had one roadblock after another with Tommy John surgery, shoulder problems, a knee injury and diabetes to top it all off. Just getting back to the bigs will be a moral victory at this point. -#2JB.
10. How much playing time in the majors will Brett Wallace and JP Arencibia get this season?
Wallace and Arencibia will be called up in July when Overbay and Molina or Buck gets traded. Wallace will play everyday, Arencibia about 4 days a week - Gerry
That sounds about right to me. (DFM)
Arencibia will be playing by mid-season, Wallace...hrm...either in May or September depending on Ruiz (I keep thinking Overbay might last the season). - John N
Arencibia will be up in September. Wallace can wait 'til next year. -ME
I'm not touching this one. I hope that they don't get promoted to Toronto without earning it, and I hope they don't get blocked if they do earn it. (obal)
Wallace should get about 247 PA. Arencibia about 191. Sorry I can't be more specific. -Braden
I could see Wallace up with the big club in late May or early June after tearing the cover off the ball in Las Vegas. Unless Arencibia can channel the abilities of Brian Jeroloman to take more than the occasional walk, I don't think we'll see him until August or September. -#2JB.
11. Will Kyle Drabek make it up before September?
No, the Jays will be careful with him and they have a lot of other starter candidates before him. When Drabek does come up he might pitch out of the bullpen due to innings limitations - Gerry
Yes, in July he'll get a few starts to be 'broken in' then sent back down until September. - John N
Youneverknow. There are a lot of guys they'd prefer to turn to first, but starting pitchers have been known to drop like flies around here. Of course, the Arnsberg era is now over, isn't it? (DFM)
He might not even be up in September. Why rush him? -ME
No. He may struggle this year but without tarnishing his prospect status. He'll make the team in April '11. -Braden
Hopefully not. Otherwise, this season is really going to hell in a handbasket. I hope he earns a call-up on merit and not because he was the centerpiece to the Halladay deal. -#2JB.
12. Who will be the surprise kid to come out of nowhere and do something this year (ala Rzepczynski from full season A to the majors in one year).
The longshot is Eric Thames who has played well when he has been healthy. If he is injured I will go with another outfielder, Moises Sierra - Gerry
Tiny Tim Collins - hey, it is what I'd love to see. Sierra I'd say is more likely though - John N
Anybody's guess is probably better than mine. Tiny Tim, though.... striding-out-of-the-pen to the strains of "Tiptoe Through the Tulips?" Who wouldn't want to see that?
It's annoying of me, but my habit for questions like this is to find the catch-all answer and predict that. In this case, the catch-all answer is "nobody." -ME
Brad Emaus. He'll flourish at 3B in New Hampshire. Edwin will suffer some bizarre injuries throughout the year and Emaus will leapfrog Campbell. He'll perform admirably in about 30 games late in the year and we'll all rejoice at possibly finding the next Kelly Gruber. -Braden
I'm going to go with Henderson Alvarez. Baseball America says his changeup is his best pitch and the change is usually the one pitch most young hurlers have trouble developing. BA also likes his fastball and changeup command so I'll go with him. -#2JB
Does anyone have Rey Gonzalez yet? No? I'll take him. Low homer rates so far mean he might be well-suited to pitching in the PCL. If he can survive there, he's just a few injuries away from a call. (obal)
13. Will Brian Dopirak get the call in September?
Yes, but he will have to fight Ruiz and Wallace for at-bats - Gerry
Nah. He gets a full AAA season getting frustrated watching Ruiz and Wallace get AB's - John N
Too arcane for me! (DFM)
Depends on how he's doing in Las Vegas and whether Overbay is here. I predict he'll do relatively well, but not outstanding, and Overbay will be dealt, so he will make his MLB debut, but will find playing time at a minimum. - Thomas
Sure, why not? -ME
I hope it's well before that. I want our own version of Carlos Pena. -Braden
I could see it happening. Whether Cito will actually play him is another thing. -#2JB.
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