On Monday we looked at the Blue Jays 2004 prospects. Today we will look at the 2004 prospects for the rest of the major leagues to see where, on the top 30 lists, major leaguers come from.
This list is non scientific, I selected major leaguers from the top 30 lists from my memory, I did not refer to baseball reference or fangraphs. Remember I was not looking for every player who played in the major leagues, I was looking for players who stuck around for a while.
Here are the players who made it, with their 2004 ranking from Baseball America.
Anaheim Angels
Top 5: Casey Kotchman #1; Jeff Mathis #2; Ervin Santana #4; Bobby Jenks #5
Top 10: Alberto Callaspo #6; Brandon Wood #7; Erick Aybar #8
Top 30: Joe Saunders #11; Kevin Jepsen #12; Howie Kendrick #14
Arizona Diamondbacks
Top 5: Scott Hairston #1; Dustin Nippert #3; Chad Tracy #4
Top 10: Conor Jackson #6; Carlos Quentin #7; Brian Bruney #8; Edgar Gonzalez #9
Top 30: Chris Snyder #15; Matt Chico #18; Carlos Gonzalez #23; Lance Cormier #30
Atlanta Braves
Top 5: Jeff Francouer #2; Dan Meyer #4; Adam LaRoche #5
Top 10: Brian McCann #7; Kyle Davies #8; Kelly Johnson #10
Top 30: Wilson Betemit #12; Blaine Boyer #16; Jarrod Saltalamacchia #19; Jo Jo Reyes #22; Chuck James #23; Ryan Langerhans #25; Zach Miner #27; Charlie Morton #28
Baltimore Orioles
Top 5: Adam Loewen #1; John Maine #2; Nick Markakis #3
Top 10: Eric Bedard #7; Mike Fontenot #9
Top 30: Jose Bautista #12; Chris Ray #13; Daniel Cabrera #15
Boston Red Sox
Top 5: Hanley Ramirez #1; Kelly Shoppach #2; David Murphy #3; Kevin Youkilis #4
Top 10: Jon Lester #8; Manny Delcarmen #10
Top 30: Jon Papelbon #14
Chicago Cubs
Top 5: Felix Pie #5
Top 10: Brendan Harris #8
Top 30: Todd Wellemeyer #13; Sergio Mitre #15; Ricky Nolasco #20; sean Marshall #23; Rich Hill #27
Cubs top four were Angel Guzman, Justin Jones; Ryan Harvey; and Andy Sisco
Chicago White Sox
Top 5: Jeremy Reed #1; Neal Cotts #3; Ryan Sweeney #4
Top 10: Brian Anderson #7; Chris Young #9
Top 30: Brandon McCarthy #11; Jon Rauch #14
Cincinnati Reds
Top 5: Edwin Encarnacion #2; Joey Votto #5
Top 10: None
Top 30: none
Cleveland Indians
Top 5: Grady Sizemore #1; Jeremy Guthrie #2; Fausto Carmona #3
Top 10: Adam Miller #9
Top 30: Rafael Perez #15; Brian Tallet #18; Aaron Laffey #23; Ben Francisco #29
Colorado Rockies
Top 5: Ian Stewart #2; Jeff Francis #3; Ubaldo Jimenez #4; Jayson Nix #5
Top 10: Matt Holliday #9
Top 30: Brad Hawpe #11; Jeff Baker #12; Garrett Aitkins #13; Jeff Salazar #20; Clint Barmes #21; Cory Sullivan #22; Aaron Miles #25
Detroit Tigers
Top 5: Joel Zumaya #3
Top 10: Curtis Granderson #8
Top 30: Ryan Raburn #11; Cody Ross #14; Fernando Rodney #16
Florida Marlins
Top 5: Jeremy Hermida #1; Scott Olsen #4
Top 10: Josh Willingham #6;
Top 30: Logan Kensing #23; Josh Johnson #24
Houston Astros
Top 5: Taylor Buchholz #1; Jason Lane #2; John Buck #3; Chris Burke #4
Top 10: Chad Qualls #7: Matt Albers #9
Top 30: Willy Tavares #11; Jesse Carlson #21
Kansas City Royals
Top 5: Zack Greinke #1; David DeJesus #4
Top 10:
Top 30: Ruben Gotay #11; Alexis Gomez #19; Mike Aviles #22; Ambiorix Burgos #30
LA Dodgers
Top 5: Edwin Jackson #1; Franklin Gutierrez #3; James Loney #4
Top 10: Chad Billingsley #6; Andy LaRoche #8
Top 30: Willie Aybar #13; Jonathan Broxton #14; Russell Martin #18; Ching-Lung Hu #22; James McDonald #27
Milwaukee Brewers
Top 5: Rickie Weeks #1; Prince Fielder #2; JJ Hardy #3; Manny Parra #4
Top 10: Corey Hart #7; Jorge De La Rosa #10
Top 30: Dennis Sarfate #12; Chris Capuano #15
Minnesota Twins
Top 5: Joe Mauer #1; Justin Morneau #2; JD Durbin #4; Jesse Crain #5
Top 10: Jason Bartlett #6; Denard Span #7; Jason Kubel #8; Grant Balfour #9
Top 30: Boof Bonser #17; Francisco Liriano #18; Scott Baker #19
Montreal Expos
Top 5: Chad Cordero #5
Top 10: Shawn Hill #6; Darrell Rasner #7; Termel Sledge #9; Ryan Church #10
Top 30: Jason Bergmann #12; Chris Young #19; Roy Corcoran #27
New York Mets
Top 5: Kaz Matsui #1; Scott Kazmir #2; David Wright #3; Lastings Milledge #5
Top 10:
Top 30: Mike Jacobs #15; Matt Lindstrom #18; Yusmero Petit #28
New York Yankees
Top 5: Dioner Navarro #1;
Top 10: Robinson Cano #6
Top 30: Chien Ming Wang #12; Scott Proctor #13; Melky Cabrera #19
Oakland A's
Top 5: Bobby Crosby #1; Joe Blanton #2; Dan Johnson #3
Top 10: Nick Swisher #6; Omar Quintanilla #7; Andre Ethier #9; Justin Duchscherer #10
Top 30: Mike Wood #12; Mark Teahen #15; John Baker #18
Philadelphia Phillies
Top 5: Cole Hamels #1; Gavin Floyd #2; Ryan Howard #3; Ryan Madson #4
Top 10: Michael Bourn #7
Top 30: Kyle Kendrick #13; Robinson Tejeda #23
Pittsburgh Pirates
Top 5: Sean Burnett #2; Jason Bay #3
Top 10: Ian Snell #6; Freddy Sanchez #7; Paul Maholm #8; Ryan Doumit #10
Top 30: Matt Capps #14; Zach Duke #15; Nyjer Morgan #16; Nate McLouth #18; Tom Gorzelanny #19; Mike Gonzalez #20
St Louis Cardinals
Top 5: Adam Wainwright #2; Yadier Molina #4
Top 10: Daric Barton #10
Top 30: Tyler Johnson #11; Brendan Ryan #18; Anthony Reyes #19; Brad Thomson #25; Skip Schumaker #29
San Diego Padres
Top 5: Josh Barfield #1; Khalil Greene #2;
Top 10:
Top 30: George Kottaras #29
San Francisco Giants
Top 5: Matt Cain #2; David Aardsma #3
Top 10: Kevin Correia #6; Travis Ishikawa #7; Fred Lewis #9
Top 30: Noah Lowry #15; Jeremy Accardo #29; Brian Wilson #30
Seattle Mariners
Top 5: Felix Hernandez #1; Jose Lopez #4; Shin-Soo Choo #5
Top 10: Adam Jones #9
Top 30: Greg Dobbs #13; JJ Putz #17; Matt Thornton #19
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Top 5: BJ Upton #1; Delmon Young #2; Joey Gathright #5
Top 10: Chad Gaudin #6; Seth McClung #8; Jonny Gomes #10
Top 30: Elijah Dukes #12; Josh Hamilton #16; Matt Diaz #27
Texas Rangers
Top 5: Adrian Gonzalez #1; John Danks #2
Top 10: Gerald Laird #6
Top 30: CJ Wilson #16; Kameron Loe #17
Toronto Blue Jays
Top 5: Alex Rios #1; Dustin McGowan #2; Gabe Gross #4
Top 10: Aaron Hill #6; David Bush #7; Brandon League #10
Top 30: Kevin Cash #13; Jayson Werth #17; Shaun Marcum #21; Vinnie Chulk #23
Who were the Plus teams?
Anaheim's farm system in 2004 had seven players who were part of their playoff run in 2009 plus two others who were traded.
Minnesota had Mauer, Morneau, Bartlett, Kubel, Crain and Span in their top ten and got three pitchers from the "teens', Bonser, Liriano and Baker
Philadelphia had quality, Hamels, Howard and Madson to go with Utley and Rollins who had recently jumped to the majors
As mentioned the Blue Jays had a pretty good group although Werth was traded.
And the minus teams?
The Cubs had only one player from their top ten, Felix Pie, stick in the major leagues.
The White Sox had only two players from their top 30 make it, one of whom is now a Blue Jay (Edwin Encarnacion)
The Royals had a good player in Greinke, an OK player in DeJesus and not much else
The Expos had a weak farm system
The Padres had a terrible system Khalil Greene was the best player to come out of it
How successful are top five prospects?
21 #1's made it but that includes Josh Barfield, Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Reed. Your number one prospect has about a 50% chance of becoming a regular major leaguer.
82 top 5's made it out of 150 named, that again is just over 50%
How about numbers six through ten?
57 players rated 6-10 made it, that is 35 players or approx. 30% less than those rated in the top five.
Among the best players rated six through ten were:
John Lester was rated at #8
Matt Holliday was #9
Curtis Granderson #8
Andre Ethier #9
Adam Jones #9
Who is the best player who was rated outside the top ten?
Howie Kendrick was rated #14.
Jon Papelbon was also #14
Josh Johnson #24
Russell Martin #18
Francisco Liriano #18
Scott Baker #19
Melky Cabrera #19
Mark Teahen #15
Skip Schumaker #29
Brian Wilson #30
JJ Putz #17
Josh Hamilton #16
Jayson Werth #17
Shaun Marcum #21
The big link among the players on this list is that most of them were still in short season ball and had not developed a track record. Four of them had reached AA in 2004, Boof Bonser, Skip Schumaker, JJ Putz and Jayson Werth and as we have seen Werth dropped because of injuries.
The lesson is that short season, or young prospects, still have a lot to show. Once a player reaches high A or AA it is hard for him to substantially improve his prospects for a big league career.
Brian Wilson gets the prize for lowest rated player, but he hadn't pitched professionally when he was rated.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100117154725596