It is day two for speculating who is in the Jays, Phillies, Mariners trade. By the end of Monday almost every prospect had been thrown in to some of the speculation plus half of the Blue Jay bullpen. So let us take a step back, catch up on the latest news, and ask if the Jays are doing the right thing here. Plus Buster Olny is tweeting that there are more moves in this re-make of the Jays.
Kudos to Bob Elliott who in yesterday's confusion appeared to be one of the first to zero in on the names that now appear to be in the mix. In this case Elliott's long time connections with a certain Pat Gillick and Paul Beeston might have paid off, that is reporter speculation on my part. His column is here and his conclusion is:
Drabek, Taylor and d'Arnaud are the names we're hearing.
It would be a good deal.
Anything less for Halladay?
Not so good.
Elliott points out that the Phillies refused to trade Drabek at last seasons trade deadline. The Jays are getting back Philadelphia's #2, 3 and 4 prospects according to Baseball America.
ESPN is now reporting that Roy has agreed to a three year deal with the Phillies and is now taking a physical although it appears as though the deal will not be finalized until tomorrow.
Buster Olney tweeted the following: One veteran talent evaluator's take: Only clear winner in the deal is Seattle. Prospects sent to Philly iffy, Blue Jays got OK haul.
And now, at noon, Olney tweets: "As soon as Halladay deal is done, the Jays are going to trade Michael Taylor to Oakland for Brett Wallace."
Let me give you my analysis of the Halladay saga:
I think there are a couple of "givens" to get out of the way up front. First, the Jays will not be a contender for the playoffs in 2010. With the youth of the rotation, excluding Halladay, and some of the offensive holes, it would take a lot of players playing over their heads in 2010 for the Jays to challenge for the playoffs. And the second "given" is that Roy Halladay will not resign with the Jays after 2010. If you accept those statements then question number one is:
Should the Blue Jays trade Roy now, or in the summer, or let him play out his contract?
I believe every Jays fan enjoys watching Halladay pitch and would welcome the opportunity to watch him pitch again in 2010. But if we consider the long term health of the franchise does it make more sense to trade Doc or let him walk? If he walks the Jays will get two draft picks. First round draft picks have about a 50% or lower chance of turning into a major league player. So let's say the Jays will get one major league player back for Halladay. That player would get to the big leagues in 2013 if he is a major league ready college player but 2014 to 2015 is more likely. A trade will bring back 3 prospects at say AA level on average. Those three players will have a higher chance of being major leaguers, say 66%, plus your timing is shortened and plus they are more predictable as they are closer to the major leagues. So let's say the Jays will get two major leaguers back for an immediate trade and those players will help the big league team in 2011 and 2012.
You also have to consider that Halladay's value could drop in 2010 and it is unlikely to rise much higher than where it is today. Doc is coming off several very good seasons and as a result is being traded as the horse he appears to be. What would happen if Doc became injured in the first half of 2010? The Jays could be forced to allow Doc to become a free agent and a mid-season trade might be off the table.
So the offset looks to me like this:
"Hold on to Doc" gets you one year of Doc's pitching and a player in say 2014.
"Trading Doc" gets you a worse 2010 offset by two players in 2011 and 2012.
To me the trade Doc now scenario is better.
That leads to question number 2, is this the best deal out there?
At then end of this process it looks like the main bidders were the Angels and the Phillies. The Yankees and Red Sox were rumoured to have been interested but there was never any indication that the Red Sox were willing to move Bucholz or the Yankees Hughes or Chamberlain. The Jays had an apparent choice between three players from the Angels, two with major league experience, or three prospects from the Phillies. I think the Jays elected for the better potential rather than the more known Angels players. We also don't know whether Roy Halladay would have approved a trade to the Angels.
So at the end of the day I think that Alex Anthopoulos made the best of a bad situation. Did he get value back for Roy? I think he got as much as he could, not as much as he wanted, but now the team can move on to the next phase of its existence, whatever that might be.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20091215111048161