Your 2009 Blue Jays

Tuesday, October 06 2009 @ 01:30 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

We're agreed, are we not, that the first 41 games of the season didn't count - that the team (and the players) rolled up some impressive numbers against the inferior competition in the Al Central and West...

So how did everybody do in the last 121 games? Let's have a look. Players are sorted, as always when it's up to me, by Runs Created per 27 outs:

             AB   R    H   TB  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS  SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG  RC  RC/27
                                                                                    
Ruiz        115  25   36   73   7   0  10  17  10  35   1  1   0  1  4    6 .313 .385 .635  25  8.06
Lind        435  68  130  246  32   0  28  79  39  80   1  1   0  4  5   11 .299 .360 .566  86  7.09
Overbay     330  44   89  151  27   1  11  45  57  79   0  0   0  1  0    6 .270 .376 .458  59  6.23
Rolen       343  54  103  155  26   1   8  52  33  45   3  4   0  7  5    4 .300 .363 .452  57  5.93
Scutaro     419  64  118  164  25   0   7  40  55  56  11  3   3  5  3    7 .282 .365 .391  64  5.26
Snider      145  22   35   63   8   1   6  17  22  54   0  1   0  1  3    3 .241 .351 .434  23  5.19
Hill        505  73  133  239  31   0  25  74  31  71   4  1   1  2  4    9 .263 .310 .473  72  4.90
Encarnacion 154  25   37   68   5   1   8  23  13  29   1  0   0  3  3    2 .240 .306 .442  22  4.58
Inglett      89  11   25   31   4   1   0   6   8  21   3  1   1  0  1    0 .281 .347 .348  12  4.56
Rios        266  29   70  113  16   0   9  41  17  48  16  3   0  3  3    8 .263 .311 .425  34  4.42
Bautista    263  39   57  108   9   3  12  34  41  65   1  0   3  2  3    7 .217 .327 .411  36  4.39
Wells       460  57  120  181  27   2  10  45  33  69  11  4   0  4  1   11 .261 .309 .393  54  4.03
Chavez      130   9   34   48   8   0   2  13   6  21   1  1   2  0  0    2 .262 .294 .369  13  3.51
McDonald    134  15   35   54   7   0   4  13   1  16   0  2   1  1  2    1 .261 .275 .403  14  3.49
Phillips     18   1    5    8   3   0   0   2   0   4   0  0   0  0  0    1 .278 .278 .444   2  3.43
Millar      184  19   36   60   9   0   5  16  27  39   0  0   0  0  1    5 .196 .302 .326  18  3.18
Barajas     316  29   62  118   8   0  16  49  14  60   1  0   1  3  0    4 .196 .228 .373  26  2.61
Barrett      18   3    3    6   0   0   1   2   1   5   0  0   0  0  0    0 .167 .211 .333   1  2.21
Adams        20   2    4    4   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  0   0  0  0    0 .200 .238 .200   1  1.59
Dellucci     25   2    1    2   1   0   0   2   3   7   0  0   0  0  1    2 .040 .172 .080   0  0.33

And the pitchers:

              G  GS  GF  CG   W  L  SV BSv Hld    IP    H    R  ER  BB  SO  HR HBP  ERA    BF  BAVG  OBP  SLG
                                                                                    
Halladay     23  23   0   8   9  9              171.0  171  59  53  27 151  17   3  2.79  694  .261 .290 .388
Romero       26  26   0   0  11  9              157.0  173  84  81  75 128  17   9  4.64  690  .288 .374 .432
Tallet       27  19   1   0   5  8              118.1  136  76  73  51  89  13   5  5.55  533  .289 .360 .448
Richmond     19  16   1   0   4  9               91.2  103  69  66  42  79  21   0  6.48  410  .281 .354 .527
Cecil        15  14   1   0   5  4               73.1   99  54  51  34  54  15   2  6.26  342  .326 .395 .559
Rzepczynski  11  11   0   0   2  4               61.1   51  27  25  30  60   7   1  3.67  261  .225 .317 .366
Purcey        4   4   0   0   1  1               22.1   26  13  13  12  13   2   0  5.24  103  .292 .376 .416
Mills         2   2   0   0   0  1                7.2   14  12  12   6   9   4   0 14.09   42  .400 .476 .800
Ray           1   1   0   0   0  1                4.1    6   5   4   1   4   1   0  8.31   21  .300 .333 .550
Camp         46   0  12   0   2  5   1   0   4   64.2   57  28  24  22  51   5   4  3.34  267  .238 .312 .364
League       51   0  13   0   2  5   0   1   8   56.2   56  31  29  13  63   7   6  4.61  239  .259 .319 .426
Carlson      52   0   9   0   0  4   0   1   7   46.2   50  29  27  15  39   5   1  5.21  204  .273 .324 .448
Frasor       45   0  31   0   3  3  10   2   2   43.2   34  16  15  15  47   4   2  3.09  178  .215 .288 .310
Janssen      21   5   5   0   2  4   1   0   2   40.0   59  29  26  14  24   5   2  5.85  192  .341 .393 .538
Downs        30   0  14   0   1  3   4   4   7   27.1   33  13  12  11  21   3   1  3.95  124  .300 .363 .473
Accardo      26   0   5   0   0  0   1   0   4   24.2   23   8   7  17  18   2   2  2.55  107  .267 .393 .372
Hayhurst     15   0   5   0   0  0   0   0   0   22.2   23   7   7   9  13   2   2  2.78   97  .274 .351 .417
Roenicke     13   0   3   0   0  0   0   0   1   17.2   19  15  14  12  19   2   1  7.13   84  .271 .381 .386
Ryan         18   0   5   0   0  1   0   0   2   14.0   14   8   8  11   7   3   0  5.14   63  .280 .403 .540
Wolfe        12   0   8   0   1  2   0   1   0   12.1   22  14  13   7   8   5   1  9.49   65  .400 .469 .727

A few related observations, why not....

It's nothing short of astonishing that the team went 48-73 while scoring and allowing roughly the same amount of runs (591-597). That's very hard to do.

One hitter of consequence was significantly better in the second portion of the year. That would be Travis Snider, of course, who was simply awful over the first quarter. Still, despite the low BAVG and the stupendous number of strikeouts, he was a little better than league average when he came back. McDonald and Chavez were also better in the second part, but neither had enough plate appearances over the first quarter for it to mean anything. And neither was much good anyway.

Three hitters performed at basically the same level in both parts of the season: Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells. Overbay's RC/27 was 6.09 in the first part of the year, 6.23 in the second. The optimistic point of view in mid-May was that while Lind and Hill and Scutaro were certain to cool off, Rios and Wells were certain to heat up. Rios and Wells did no such thing, of course - both tailed off slightly from their depressing getaways - Rios started out at 4.66 RC/27 and dropped off to 4.42 the rest of the way; Wells went from 4.34 to 4.03.

If Rod Barajas goes elsewhere... who cares?

Randy Ruiz, obviously, isn't really that good. He'll be 32 years old in a couple of weeks, and he didn't hit this well in his 11 years in the minors. Plus he's blocked by Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay, and Travis Snider. But all of those guys are LH batters, so Ruiz may be able to claim some platoon at bats. But a regular outfield of Lind, Wells, and Snider is out of the question - it would possibly be the worst defensive outfield in the major leagues.

I thought the offense would score 800 runs. They didn't - they scored 798.

On the mound, two pitchers performed at roughly the same level in both parts of the season: Roy Halladay, thanks to an extremely impressive burst in the final month, and Brandon League. Halladay's ERAs were 2.78 and 2.79, League's were 4.50 and 4.61 with generally similar peripherals in both parts of the season (League also sharply reduced his BBs allowed in the second part.)

The team went into the season with two more or less established starting pitchers and a whole bunch of rookies. While this was obviously a situation fraught with The Peril, in every crisis looms an opportunity. I reasoned that if just one of the kids stepped up, it would be enough - barely - to keep the staff above water. And one of the kids, Ricky Romero, did step up and do a solid job in the rotation pretty much all season long. Alas, one of the two established starters went out for the year in the second week of the season, which pretty much cancelled out the good effect.

And pretty well all the rookies ran out of gas. Or something. After the middle of August, Romero went 3-4, 5.59; Cecil went 2-3, 8.22; Richmond went 2-5, 8.73 (Richmond also missed six weeks in the middle of the year.)

And the bullpen, with the exceptions of Frasor and Camp, pretty much went to hell.

So...what to do with this bunch?

Well, they scored 74 fewer runs than the Red Sox. And they allowed 35 more. Do you want to find a way to make up the 109 runs difference? Or do you want to give up? Boston and New York have money and brains. In this millennium, the Rays slipped ahead of both of them once; the Blue Jays beat out Boston once.

Well, I figure you still have to try.

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