With all the recent talk of trading Roy Halladay and retooling I have two questions rolling around in my head. First, if the Jays are to begin retooling who can they count on being ready to help the big club in 2010? And secondly, with all the promotions to the big league team this season, who is the Jays best prospect who has not yet appeared in the big leagues?
Let's have a look at the farm system by position.
Catcher
JP Arencibia was supposed to be the catcher of the future, to be up with the Jays by now for a half-season tutorial, and to be entrenched in the job for 2010. Well something funny happened on the way to the Dome, he hasn't hit in 2009 like he did in 2008. And his numbers have not improved month by month through 2009. As an aside Arencibia has hit eight home runs this season, none in April, none in June, all eight in May. Arencibia was known as a free swinger but in 2008 he was able to make contact. Now that the AAA pitchers know how to pitch him he is not putting quality at-bats together. He can improve, and the Jays have talked with him about selectivity at the plate, but so far the lessons are not learned. Arencibia is the top Jays prospect from the 2008/9 off-season prospect rankings not to have appeared in the major leagues but at this time that ranking is in jeopardy. However it is not unreasonable for the Jays to say, if they are rebuilding, that they will throw Arencibia into the fire and hope he learns on the job in 2010.
Brian Jeroloman is another player who has not shown a big improvement in 2009. Jeroloman is back in AA and while he started strongly, he hit .294 in April, since then he has hit around .220. We should recognize that the offensive bar for catchers is not that high, defensively Jeroloman could handle the majors right now, but will he hit enough?
Kyle Phillips is hitting really well but his defense has not been rated as major league ready. Phillips manager in AAA, Mike Basso, is a former catcher and presumably he is working with Phillips to try and get him to be major league ready. Phillips is also trying out at third base but he is defensively challenged there too. but Phillips can hit, he hit over .300 last season in AA and has hit over .300 each month of 2009. But at the end of the day either a player finds a defensive position or he has to hit 30 home runs to be a full time DH. Because Phillips is a left handed bat he could be used at DH but to do that the Jays would have to move one of their outfielders.
Next best catching prospect is 19 year-old AJ Jimenez who is in Lansing.
So the Jays do have prospects who could play for them in 2010, the Jays don't know if either of Arencibia or Jeroloman will be able to handle major league pitching. Arencibia and Jeroloman could be top ten prospects but neither is pushing up to number one.
First Base
Brian Dopirak has continued his fine 2008 play into 2009 and has likely eanred himself a promotion to AAA soon. Dopirak could possible help the team in 2010, possibly in the Kevin Millar role. Teams often look for left handed hitting first basemen and Dopirak hits right but he has a .950 OPS in AA and deserves a chance to prove himself at AAA. However we need to remember that Dopirak stalled out previously with the Cubs and while he has reworked his swing there is no guarantee that he will sail though AAA.
David Cooper is a 2008 draftee who has moved quickly to AA. After a slow start Cooper is coming around and has hit better recently. However Cooper has not yet developed much power and first base is a power position. Cooper is not likely to be able to help the Jays in 2010 unless he quickly finds that power stroke. Cooper might need a couple of off-seasons of weightlifting before he can help. Cooper is a top ten prospect but the lack of power would hold him back from the top of the rankings.
At first, Dopirak could possibly help in 2010 but that is it.
Second base
Brad Emaus was the next great second base prospect but he has had an up and down 2009. Dick Scott told us recently that Emaus needs to learn to be less of a free swinger, and usually that is a lesson that has to be learned again in AAA. Emaus may have to go back to AA in 2010 unless he comes around quickly and is unlikely to help the parent team in 2010. Emaus's defense is also reported to need some work and that, coupled with Aaron Hill being entrenched at 2B, means Emaus will have to wait.
John Tolisano has hit reasonably well in Dunedin but will need time to get to the major leagues.
There is no second base help in the minors for 2010, but the Jays don't need any.
Shortstop
Most of the Jays shortstop prospects are young. Each of Justin Jackson, Tyler Pastornicky and Gustavo Pierre have enough potential to be top prospects but none of them will help in the Jays in 2010 or possibly even 2011. They each have shown enough potential to be in the running for top prospect status. Jackson still struggles to be a consistent hitter in high A ball, Pastornicky has hit well in his first full season but needs some more power and Pierre has just started playing in North America.
Third base
Kevin Ahrens has also not yet developed and like the shortstops needs time and will not help in 2010.
Scott Campbell was supposed to be close but a series of injuries in 2009 has pushed him back to AA and he didn't hit in AAA when he was there. Campbell needs more time to recover from a tough first half of 2009.
It doesn't look like the Jays have any prospects in waiting for 2010 at third base.
Outfield
Moises Sierra has been the most improved prospect of 2009. Sierra had shown good power and defense with the Jays but the consistent batting average was not there until 2009. Sierra has played very well in Dunedin and has pushed himself forward into the top tier of prospects. Sierra still has to experience the more advanced pitchers in AA and AAA
Eric Eiland and Marcus Brisker are raw and have not shown much yet. Same with Kenny Wilson although he lost time on the DL just when it looked like he was starting to show better results. Eric Thames started his pro career strongly this season but has lost time to injuries.
Starting Pitcher
Fabio Castro started 2009 in dominating fashion in AA but he has cooled off in AAA. Castro has a 6+ ERA in both June and July. Because of his small size, he is listed at 5'7", Castro is tabbed for the bullpen. The Jays might give him some starts in 2009 as an audition but his
Luis Perez does not have one big out pitch, he has to mix his pitches and control the strike zone to succeed. On that basis he will probably need more time in AA and AAA before he will be ready to help the Jays.
Relief Pitcher
Dan Farquhar has an ERA below one combined between Dunedin and New Hampshire. Opposing hitters are hitting .156 off Farquhar. Farquhar's weak link is his control, he has walked 27 hitters in 39 innings. Farquhar was only drafted last season but he could help the Jays in the bullpen in 2010, more likely in the second half of 2010.
Tim Collins is a great story but he is still only 19 years old. Collins is another short pitcher, 5'7", and as a result he will have to prove he can keep up his performance at higher levels, but 77 strikeouts in 50 innings is pretty impressive at any level.
Trystan Magnuson has shown a lot of improvement in 2009 after a failed experiment with starting in 2008. Magnuson is still in A ball but could get to AA later this season. Magnuson is unlikely to be able to help the big club in 2010 and as a reliever would not be a number one prospect.
The Jays have depleted their pitching depth this season with all the promotions and that leaves no major starting pitcher prospects banging on the door. There are some pitchers who could help in the bullpen over the next few years. In addition none of these pitchers would be the Jays number one prospect this off-season.
Summary
So who do the Jays have ready to step up in 2010 who we haven't seen yet? The answer is not much. They could add a catcher and a right hand hitting first baseman, and possibly a relief pitcher or two but there are slim pickings on the farm until the high school picks and the 2009 draft class come through in 2011 or 2012.
The Jays best prospect who has never played in the major leagues is probably one of JP Arencibia; Justin Jackson; or Tyler Pastornicky. The answer is not obvious and none of them would be considered "A" level prospects at this stage of their development.
The caveat to all this is that if the Jays intend to contend in 2010 they would need to re-sign Barajas and Scutaro or sign replacements. The Jay's 2010 payroll would be over $20 million higher for the players under contract and presumed arbitration increases. Signing Scutaro and Barajas, or equivalent players, to "win now" would bump the payroll increase to $25 million or so and total payroll to well over $100 million. This could be higher than Rogers budget thereby generating a need to dump salary.
The Jays can cover the loss of Halladay, from a body ready to play in the majors perspective, but when it comes to position players the cupboard is much less fruitful. Barajas can be replaced; Rios could be replaced by Travis Snider if he was traded; but there are no replacements for Marco Scutaro or Scott Rolen.
Finally, if the Jays pitching prospects pitch enough innings in the major leagues in 2009 to lose their prospect status the Jays system will look to be thin on top talent and Baseball America will have the Jays in the lower 20's in their annual rankings this coming off-season.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20090716124139699