The All Star Starter

Monday, June 08 2009 @ 10:09 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

So I'm watching the game and I hear Campbell and Tabler are talking about next month's All Star Game.

Campbell seemed to find it inconceivable that anyone besides Roy Halladay could be named the AL starter. It is, indeed, an honour long overdue - Doc was going to start the 2005 game, according to Terry Francona, but Kevin Mench's bat had other ideas. Tabler did note that Zack Greinke has to be taken into consideration - like, DUH - and that the AL starter will probably end up being determined by which man is actually available to pitch (i.e., which one doesn't work the Sunday game before the break.)

So let's have a quick peek at how the Blue Jays and Royals rotations shake up from here until the break. First, let's assume that both teams continue to roll over their five starters:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun  9    @ Texas           Tallet
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas           Romero
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas           Richmond
Fri, Jun 12    Florida           Halladay
Sat, Jun 13    Florida           Janssen
Sun, Jun 14    Florida           Tallet
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Richmond 
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Halladay 
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington      Janssen 
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington      Tallet 
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington      Romero 
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati        Richmond 
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati        Halladay
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati        Janssen 
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia      Tallet 
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia      Romero 
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia      Richmond
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay         Halladay
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay         Janssen 
Wed, Jul  1    Tampa Bay         Tallet
Tue, Jul  2    OFF DAY    
Fri, Jul  3    @ NY Yankees      Romero 
Sat, Jul  4    @ NY Yankees      Richmond 
Sun, Jul  5    @ NY Yankees      Halladay 
Mon, Jul  6    @ NY Yankees      Janssen 
Tue, Jul  7    @ Tampa Bay       Tallet 
Wed, Jul  8    @ Tampa Bay       Romero
Thu, Jul  9    @ Tampa Bay       Richmond 
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore       Halladay 
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore       Janssen 
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore       Tallet

This obviously leaves Halladay well positioned to make the start for the AL - on three days rest, he can certainly give you a couple of innings. How about the Royals?

Tue, Jun  9    @ Cleveland      Bannister
Wed, Jun 10    @ Cleveland      Meche 
Thu, Jun 11    @ Cleveland      Greinke 
Fri, Jun 12    Cincinnati       Hochevar
Sat, Jun 13    Cincinnati       Davies 
Sun, Jun 14    Cincinnati       Bannister 
    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 16    Arizona          Meche 
Wed, Jun 17    Arizona          Greinke
Thu, Jun 18    Arizona          Hochevar 
Fri, Jun 19    St. Louis        Davies 
Sat, Jun 20    St. Louis        Bannister 
Sun, Jun 21    St. Louis        Meche 
    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 23    @ Houston        Greinke 
Wed, Jun 24    @ Houston        Hochevar 
Thu, Jun 25    @ Houston        Davies 
Fri, Jun 26    @ Pittsburgh     Bannister
Sat, Jun 27    @ Pittsburgh     Meche 
Sun, Jun 28    @ Pittsburgh     Greinke 
Mon, Jun 29    Minnesota        Hochevar 
Tue, Jun 30    Minnesota        Davies 
Wed, Jul  1    Minnesota        Bannister 
Thu, Jul  2    White Sox        Meche 
Fri, Jul  3    White Sox        Greinke
Sat, Jul  4    White Sox        Hochevar 
Sun, Jul  5    White Sox        Davies
Mon, Jul  6    @ Detroit        Bannister 
Tue, Jul  7    @ Detroit        Meche 
Wed, Jul  8    @ Detroit        Greinke
Thu, Jul  9    @ Boston         Hochevar 
Fri, Jul 10    @ Boston         Davies 
Sat, Jul 11    @ Boston         Bannister 
Sun, Jul 12    @ Boston         Meche

Even better for Greinke - he would be the next man up in the KC rotation.

Of course, it seems highly unlikely that either team's rotations will unfold this way. The Blue Jays have three off days between now and the break - the Royals have two. Cito Gaston has already skipped Scott Richmond once in order to keep sending Halladay out there every five days, and has stated that it's his intention to carry on in the same fashion (just as John Gibbons did before him.) And it certainly seems unlikely that the Royals will allow their rotation to unfold so that Greinke starts on Wed July 8 and doesn't pitch for them again until Fri July 17 (the Royals and the Jays are both off on the Thursday after the All Star Game.)

What might they do?

Let's try this instead. After Toronto's off day on June 15, they come back with Ricky Romero the nexty day, as scheduled. But for the 17th, Scott Richmond is passed over. Halladay, Janssen, Tallet all work on normal rest, Richmond makes the start on June 20, and Romero on June 21.

At which point, the Jays have another off day. It's Halladay's turn - Gaston's choice will be to bring him back on short rest before the off day, or leave things alone and him have the extra day. Given those choices, I'd let him have the extra day and I expect Gaston will as well. So on June 23 Halladay would kick off a stretch of nine games in nine days before the next off day (July 2). It would be Ricky Romero's turn the next day, followed by Halladay on the 4th of July - it's a simple enough matter to flip the two starters. You keep Doc on his five day cycle, and give the youngster an extra day (and the Jays do need to be paying attention to Romero's innings pitched this season.) There being 10 games in 10 days before the break, the Jays cycle through their five starters - the sequence, by this point, is Halladay-Romero-Janssen-Tallet-Richmond - and Halladay will arrive at the break having last pitched on Wednesday July 8. Primed and ready for the NL.

It would unfold like this:

        
Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen (1-2)
Tue, Jun  9    @ Texas           Tallet (3-3)
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas           Romero (3-2)
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas           Richmond (4-3)
Fri, Jun 12    Florida           Halladay (10-1)
Sat, Jun 13    Florida           Janssen (1-2)
Sun, Jun 14    Florida           Tallet (3-3)
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero (3-2)
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Halladay (10-1)
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Janssen (1-2)
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington      Tallet (3-3)
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington      Richmond (4-3)
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington      Romero (3-2)
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati        Halladay (10-1)
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati        Janssen (1-2)
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati        Tallet (3-3)
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia      Richmond (4-3)
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia      Romero (3-2)
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia      Halladay (10-1)
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay         Janssen (1-2)
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay         Tallet (3-3)
Wed, Jul  1    Tampa Bay         Richmond (4-3)
Tue, Jul  2    OFF DAY    
Fri, Jul  3    @ NY Yankees      Halladay (10-1)
Sat, Jul  4    @ NY Yankees      Romero (3-2)
Sun, Jul  5    @ NY Yankees      Janssen (1-2)
Mon, Jul  6    @ NY Yankees      Tallet (3-3)
Tue, Jul  7    @ Tampa Bay       Richmond (4-3)
Wed, Jul  8    @ Tampa Bay       Halladay (10-1)
Thu, Jul  9    @ Tampa Bay       Romero (3-2)
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore       Janssen (1-2)
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore       Tallet (3-3)
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore       Richmond (4-3)

Having worked all this out - what is the point? If Gaston simply rolls over his five starters without taking off days into account, Halladay makes six more starts before the break. If he uses the off days to bump someone else temporarily and keep Halladay on normal rest - Doc makes six more starts before the break. The only change in the opposition would be see him facing Philadelphia rather than Tampa Bay - doesn't seem like a priority.

The only way to get Halladay a seventh start before the break would require him pitching on three days rest - twice. Like this:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun  9    @ Texas           Tallet 
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas           Romero 
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas           Richmond 
Fri, Jun 12    Florida           Halladay 
Sat, Jun 13    Florida           Janssen 
Sun, Jun 14    Florida           Tallet 
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Halladay 
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Janssen 
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington      Tallet 
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington      Richmond 
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington      Halladay
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati        Romero
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati        Janssen 
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati        Tallet 
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia      Richmond 
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia      Halladay 
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia      Romero
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay         Janssen 
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay         Tallet 
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay          Halladay 
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY    
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees       Romero 
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees       Janssen 
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees       Tallet 
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees       Halladay 
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay        Richmond 
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay        Romero 
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay        Janssen 
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore       Tallet 
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore       Halladay 
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore       Richmond

It doesn't seem worth doing, not to me.

The Royals only have two off days to play with. But with one simple tweak, they get an extra start out of Greinke before the break, while keeping him on his regular rest. All they have to do is flip Greinke and Meche after their off day on June 14. Getting an extra start out of Greinke before the break, especially when it doesn't require him working on short rest, seems well worth doing. It means, of course, that he'd have to start the ROyals last game before the break. Like so:

Tue, Jun  9    @ Cleveland       Bannister 
Wed, Jun 10    @ Cleveland       Meche 
Thu, Jun 11    @ Cleveland       Greinke 
Fri, Jun 12    Cincinnati        Hochevar 
Sat, Jun 13    Cincinnati        Davies 
Sun, Jun 14    Cincinnati        Bannister 
    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 16    Arizona           Greinke 
Wed, Jun 17    Arizona           Meche 
Thu, Jun 18    Arizona           Hochevar 
Fri, Jun 19    St. Louis         Davies 
Sat, Jun 20    St. Louis         Bannister 
Sun, Jun 21    St. Louis         Greinke 
    OFF DAY    
Tue, Jun 23    @ Houston         Meche 
Wed, Jun 24    @ Houston         Hochevar 
Thu, Jun 25    @ Houston         Davies 
Fri, Jun 26    @ Pittsburgh      Bannister 
Sat, Jun 27    @ Pittsburgh      Greinke 
Sun, Jun 28    @ Pittsburgh      Meche 
Mon, Jun 29    Minnesota         Hochevar 
Tue, Jun 30    Minnesota         Davies 
Wed, Jul  1    Minnesota         Bannister 
Thu, Jul  2    White Sox         Greinke 
Fri, Jul  3    White Sox         Meche 
Sat, Jul  4    White Sox         Hochevar 
Sun, Jul  5    White Sox         Davies
Mon, Jul  6    @ Detroit         Bannister 
Tue, Jul  7    @ Detroit         Greinke 
Wed, Jul  8    @ Detroit         Meche 
Thu, Jul  9    @ Boston          Hochevar 
Fri, Jul 10    @ Boston          Davies 
Sat, Jul 11    @ Boston          Bannister 
Sun, Jul 12    @ Boston          Greinke

(If they like, they can flip him and Bannister when they cycle through the rotation after their other off day, but there seems little profit in that.

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