Once I was a rich man
Now I am so poor
1. Should we even bother?
Of course, don't be silly.
2. Why?
Well, it's baseball. If you're into that.
3. How bad is it going to be?
This is the year of No Expectations. The local nine has been written off by all and sundry. For once, not even any of the people around the team are talking about anything so outlandish as actually, you know, contending this season. After all - they've lost A.J. Burnett, and to a division rival. And Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are both on the shelf and may not contribute anything this season. None of these things can be seen as actually helping the team. But...
4. What does that actually mean?
Pitchers not named Roy Halladay or Jesse Litsch started 101 games for Toronto in 2008. They went 38-33, 4.13 and worked 605 innings, allowing 297 runs. That's pretty darn good (your average AL starter has a 4.45 ERA.) Let's assume this year's crew can't match that.
5. What's the worst that could happen?
Suppose the kids are not all right. Suppose Ricky Romero isn't at all ready for prime time, and gives the team about 110 innings with an ERA over 6.00 - it's ugly enough for the team to send him Las Vegas and give Casey Janssen a look. Casey's not a whole lot better, alas, but he does manage to get his ERA below about 5.50 in a dozen or so starts. That is at least marginally better than what they get from Scott Richmond, who makes about 20 starts while going back and forth to the bullpen and AAA, and posts an ERA of 5.56 while he's at it. Brad Mills gets a look and posts a 5.82 ERA in 10 starts, and at some point Brett Cecil is called upon as well only to get hammered in half a dozen starts. And as for David Purcey, he stays in the rotation all year long, and almost gets his ERA below 5.00. Almost, but not quite.
To recap:
Purcey, 33 starts, 190 IP, 5.02 ERA
Richmond, 19 starts, 110 IP, 5.56 ERA
Romero, 19 starts, 102 IP, 6.35 ERA
Janssen, 14 starts, 72 IP, 5.38 ERA
Mills, 10 starts, 51 IP, 5.82 ERA
Cecil, 6 starts, 26 IP, 6.58 ERA
6. Is that ugly enough for you?
I hope so. The upshot is that rather than allowing 297 runs in 605 innings, the new starters allow 364 runs in 551 innings. That's 67 more runs, which is a lot. And just for the hell of it, let's assume Halladay and Litsch aren't as good as they were last year. We'll keep the innings the same, but give Doc an extra 14 earned runs (brings his ERA up to 3.33) and we'll give Litsch another 19 earned runs (brings his ERA all the way up to 4.47); which means that the starters as a group will allow exactly 100 more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008. With a collective ERA of 4.81, they will be a below-average group.
7. Is that what's going to happen?
Maybe. It's just that - doesn't it seem like a lot of things have to go wrong for this nightmare to play itself out? A lot of things? And even if it happens, and they do give up 100 runs more than last year... then they'll give up about as many runs as they score, and we should expect something like 80-82 or 81-81 from this team.
Remember, the Jays have a bit of margin to work with. The 2008 Jays outscored their opponents by 104 runs, dysfunctional offense and all. Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench and all. And there's no shortage of reasons to think the offense might even be a wee bit better in 2009.
8. Gosh. Well, then. Do we dare... hope?
Always. Got to play 'em, might as well win 'em.
9. Seriously?
What if it's not as bad as I've just fantasized? And my nightmare scenario of the starters allowing an additional 100 runs only sees the team falling to the point where it would still be reasonable to expect a .500 season even without any improvement from the offense.
I don't actually know that Travis Snider and Adam Lind are going to be better than Matt Stairs and Brad Wilkerson. But I think they've got a chance. I'll think about that tomorrow. For now, let's suppose the starting pitching doesn't fail in such a spectacularly awful fashion. Let's make it marginally better. Let's pencil in:
Purcey, 33 starts, 192 IP, 4.69 ERA
Richmond, 19 starts, 110 IP, 5.07 ERA
Romero, 19 starts, 102 IP, 5.65 ERA
Janssen, 14 starts, 72 IP, 4.88 ERA
Mills, 10 starts, 51 IP, 5.12 ERA
Cecil, 6 starts, 26 IP, 5.19 ERA
Nothing to write home about, just a little bit better. While we're at it, we'll also shave 16 runs from Halladay and Litsch, giving them ERAs of 3.03 and 4.16. Not as good as last season, but not bad. This group has allowed 50 more runs than the 2008 squad. If the rest of the team performs at a 2008 level, which isn't asking for very much at all, lord knows - well, a team that scores 714 runs and allows 660 should go about 87-75.
The Jays spend the first six weeks of the season outside the division, which means that the young pitchers can get their feet wet without immediately being thrown to the Yankees and Red Sox. So what if they score 40 or 50 more runs than they did last season?
And what if one - just one - of the kids actually steps up? (Personally, I'd bet on the guy who had the 1.54 ERA this spring.)
My oh my. It must be spring...
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20090402192223913