I can’t imagine being an Orioles fan. For the past decade or so, your most frequent thought has been “Stupid Angelos,” the team has been stuck on ‘suck’ forever and they play in a division with upwards of three behemoths; It’s like being a Jays fan, but worse.
But maybe, just maybe, there's some light at the end of the tunnel. And a good chunk of it comes in the form of a potential superstar catcher.
Just who is this Matt Wieters guy?
Well, for starters, if the Pirates front office weren’t a bunch of goofs, Wieters would be the guy terrorizing the NL Central for the next fifteen years or so. Instead, Pittsburgh decided to go with a reliever fourth overall, and now teams like the Jays get to deal with Wieters, a catcher who people have compared to everyone from Jorge Posada to a better Mike Piazza. Yikes.
Wieters is, quite simply, the best prospect in baseball. After being taken 5th overall in the 2007 draft, the 22 year-old put up a .355/.454/.600 line in 437 at-bats between High-A and AA in 2008. While almost certainly ready for MLB pitching right this second, the Orioles have decided to ship Wieters back to the minors for a couple of months to save on service time. But once he arrives, probably sometime around June 1st, watch out. Wieters is primed to immediately launch himself into the upper echelon of major league catchers. Within a year or two, he’ll likely be peerless and that’ll get tired pretty quickly for Jays fans. Oh, but he’s kinda slow, so there’s that.
Is Nick Markakis the best Rightfielder in baseball?
You know, he just might be. In terms of OPS, only Milton Bradley and Ryan Ludwick eclipsed Markakis’s .897 last year and the 25 year-old is only improving. In 2008, Markakis put up a line of .306/.406/.491 with an impressive 99 walks to 113 strikeouts. This follows his first two seasons with OPSes of .799 and .847, so if Markakis continues his learning curve, we can expect something in the range of .950 which should vault him straight to the top of the pack. It’s funny, there’s just not that much to say about Markakis. He’s just damn good at nearly everything he does, without ever really struggling. In fact, you could say he’s exactly what Jays fans wish and hope Alex Rios will one day become.
Now that Daniel Cabrera is gone, which enigmatic fireballer will seemingly only give fits to the Jays?
Ah, yes, Daniel Cabrera. Any time I saw him listed as the opposing pitcher, I would immediately consider the possibilities of an eight run first inning thanks to seven walks and a bunch of doubles. Instead, invariably, Cabrera would harness his awesome stuff, strike out thirteen and beat the Jays 2-1 or something stupid like that. Now, looking at the stats shows that Cabrera hasn’t actually had a ton of success against Toronto, save for 2006 when he went 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA, 32K and 11BB in 27 innings. All other years, he ranged from average to awful against Toronto. Still, if you try and tell me the thought of Cabrera facing the Jays doesn’t make you wince, you’re lying.
In any event, since Daniel is now attempting to resurrect his career in the friendly confines of Nationals Park, the sense is that the Orioles just won’t feel the same. But wait: Enter the injured and tantalizing Rich Hill to the rescue! Acquired from the Cubs in early February, Hill, who just turned 29, will look to reclaim whatever it was that saw him put together a nice year and a half stretch in 2006 and 2007.
Hill was drafted in the fourth round of the 2002 draft and quickly established himself as a hard thrower and not much else. It wasn’t until 2005 and his first taste of AA ball that he finally began to put things together. In ten starts in West Tennessee, Hill struck out 90 batters in just 57.6 innings to go along with only 21 walks and an ERA of 3.28. He continued his mastery in AAA punching out 92 against only 14 free passes in 65 innings to firmly cement himself as a top five organizational prospect at the age of 25. The next two years saw Hill make 48 starts for the Cubs where he went 17-15 with a 4.01 ERA, 273 strikeouts and 102 walks in 294 innings. Though he often suffered from bouts of wildness, Hill looked set as the Cubs number three arm.
This is where, if this were a VH-1 Behind the Music special, Hill would start pissing off his bandmates and doing tons of smack. 2008 was not good to Rich Hill. Bouncing between four different levels, Hill racked up 62 walks in 67.3 innings while battling a litany of injuries. So, the Cubs, as they often do, quickly grew tired of the talented righty and shipped him to Baltimore for the dreaded PTBNL.
Hill is already on the shelf until at least the end of April, but will be expected to slide into the rotation soon after to provide some depth behind Guthrie and Uehara. But what can we expect from Hill in 2009? Well, much of the same, I’d think. If healthy, he’ll probably manage to strike out seven or eight guys per nine innings, but the walks are going to kill him, especially in the AL East. So, let’s put Hill down for 24 starts, a 4.75 ERA, 115 strikeouts, 74 walks in 128 innings. Oh, and for the old-timey guys, a 7-10 record.
Ok, so they’ve got the best rightfielder, and the soon-to-be best catcher; they’re pretty good, right?
Nope. Though, at least at the plate, they’re not as bad as you might think. The right side of the infield consists of Aubrey Huff and his bizarre .912 OPS at first, and an elite second bagger in Brian Roberts. Across the diamond, Melvin Mora will drag his 37 year-old frame to third every day. I bet you didn’t know Mora drove in 104 runs last year. I sure didn’t. That leaves shortstop where Cesar Izturis will be counted on to provide elite defence and mind-blowingly crappy offense. In fact, I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up, but this could be the year Izturis slugs below .300. Let’s keep an eye on that.
In the outfield, aside from Markakis, the O’s are likely to feature two very toolsy and erratic young talents. Adam Jones, who arrived in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season, impressed at times last year though, at only 23, clearly has a ways to go. Jones smacked 9 HRs in 2008 and could be poised to double that this year, if he can just work on that pesky 5:1 K:BB ratio.
Over in left, the newly arrived Felix Pie will attempt to turn a whole whack of talent into some production after being tossed aside by the Cubs. In 260 Major League at-bats, Pie has failed to impress, posting a line of .223/.284/.331, however the Orioles are hoping the 24 year-old can tap into the potential that has seen him post an .825 OPS in seven minor league seasons. Blessed with a ton of speed, Pie covers a ton of ground in left. Couple that with Jones’s range in centre and Markakis’s steady defence in right and the Orioles will, if nothing else, feature a slightly above average offense with superior defenders.
Ok, so again, they’re not that bad, right?
I already told you: They’re bad. Don’t believe me? Quick, name their starting rotation. Or even 60% of it. There you go.
In trying to think of a way to preview the Orioles starting staff, I kept coming back to Pitchfork Media’s review of the album ‘Shine On’ by Jet. Pitchfork is well known for penning lengthy, self-indulgent reviews, often favourable to hipster, indie-rock bands. So when Jet released ‘Shine On’, rather than give it a 1.3 out of 10, Pitchfork instead simply posted a nine-second video of a monkey drinking its own urine. And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen; The 2009 Baltimore Orioles starting rotation: akin to a pee-drinking monkey.
Fronting this abomination is Jeremy Guthrie, who’s actually pretty decent. After being plucked off waivers from the Cleveland Indians in 2007, Guthrie has made 56 starts for Baltimore, going 17-17 with an ERA of 3.66. His K/9 hovers around 6 and he strikes out two for every batter he walks. Basically, Guthrie is exactly what you’d like from a #4 starter, or even a third. However, in Baltimore, he’s unquestionably the ace. Predictably, things get worse from there. Coming in at number two is 34 year-old Koji Uehara, a free-agent acquisition from the Yomiuri Giants of the Japanese League. Uehara’s career has mirrored a poor man’s John Smoltz, bouncing from starter to closer and back. In 10 seasons in Japan, Uehara has posted a 3.01 ERA and nearly 8 strikeouts per 9 innings work. Still, he’s 34 and has faced some injury problems the past couple of seasons. Regardless, he’s #2 with a bullet.
And here’s where things get really ugly. While Hill recovers from an elbow injury, the numbers three through five starters consist of Adam Eaton, Mark Hendrickson, and either Alfredo Simon or Hayden Penn. Honestly, I’ve already wasted enough bandwidth in just naming these guys. Penn might have a future but the rest are truly awful. Oh, and Eaton and Hendrickson arrive the AL East from the NL, so that should work out just fine.
Anyway, here’s where I open it up to you. Predict the number of starts and combined ERA for Eaton and Hendrickson for 2009. Winner becomes the Orioles #3 starter for the stretch drive.
So, who’s going to close, assuming they ever get there?
Wouldn’t you know it; the O’s actually have some depth at the back end of the bullpen. Chris Ray appears healed from Tommy John surgery in 2007 and looks to duplicate his 167 ERA+ from 2006. But even if he does, it’ll have to be in the setup spot as manager Dave Tremblay has named George Sherrill his closer for opening day. Sherrill posted 31 saves in 2008 despite a 4.73 ERA in 53.3 innings. Ray has an ERA of 0.00 in 11 Spring Training innings. Sherrill’s is 5.68 with 15 hits in 6.1 innings. My money’s on Ray closing out games by June 1st.
Will the O’s suck in September?
You’ve got to assume they will. It’s uncanny how poorly this team plays over the final quarter of the season. In fact, going back to 2002 when the O’s finished the season on a 4-32 ‘run’, the Orioles have played the first three quarters of the season a combined 411-437. That’s good for a .485 winning percentage which extrapolates out to a 79-83 record. However, the final quarter is always a completely different story. Those seven years have seen the O’s go 86-199 over the final 40 or so contests. That’s a .302 winning percentage, or, over a full season, a 49-113 record. Yowza.
So is there any reason for this trend to reverse itself? Well, maybe, but this is all just hypothetical. The past few years have seen the Orioles roster comprised of a bunch of mediocre veterans with a few raw rookies thrown in for good measure. By the time the middle of August rolls around, the veterans are on cruise control and the rookies are burning out. Thus, the apocalypse hits.
However, 2009 could be different. This year, the plan is for the kids to start coming up later in the year to supplant the mediocre veterans. So, Gregg Zaun will precede Matt Wieters, and Adam Eaton should step aside for the highly touted Brian Matusz sometime in July or August. So by the time the dog days roll around, the Orioles lineup could be filled with just a bunch of exuberant rookies. Obviously some will take their lumps and struggle but, at the very least, they should at least be competing. What I’m articulating quite poorly here is that maybe the enthusiasm will rub off and see the Orioles put together a respectable final quarter. Or not, I don’t really know. I just wanted an excuse to show off that .302 winning percentage above.
Alright, a decent lineup, terrible starters, and a good bullpen, where do the 2009 O’s end up?
Last year, in this space, I put the Orioles down for a 59-103 record. Some of that was out of spite for actually having to write about them. Really, I had them targeted for 67 or so wins. In the end, the O’s made a Nostradamus out of the non-spiteful me when they finished 68-93. This year, I’m not really sure. They should be better thanks to a more experienced Adam Jones, the continuing maturation of Nick Markakis, and the arrival of Matt Wieters. But their starting pitching is arguably worse this year, at least for the month of April where the O’s face a brutal schedule. Couple that with being in such a tough division and I still can’t see Baltimore coming in under 90 losses. So, we’ll call it 72-90 though I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised to see them lose closer to 95.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20090330223744447