Got to thinking - what should we expect in the Jays rotation and bullpen in 2009? We have been assuming Cito will go with a 7 man bullpen but will he push for a 6 man?
In September, when Cito had tons of options and knew who he had, the pen usage was...
Carlson: 13 - 13.1 IP
Tallet: 10 - 12.1 IP
Ryan: 10 - 10 IP
League: 8 - 7 IP
Downs: 7 - 7 IP
Parrish: 4 - 6.1 IP plus 1 start for 5 IP.
Frasor: 4 - 3.1 IP
Wolfe: 3 - 4.0 IP
Camp: 3 - 1.1 IP
So 5 guys received regular work while 4 guys were mop up guys from the looks of it. The 4 mop up's threw 15 innings total in September with 5 2/3's of that being in one game where Marcum left after just 2 IP and 3 more IP in a game Richmond started and went 5 IP - so over half their innings were in 2 games. Could a 6 man pen work for Cito? I suspect he'd like to go for it.
What about the starters? Lets check starts, IP/Start for September.
Litsch: 6 - 6.9 IP
Halladay: 5 - 7 IP
AJ: 5 - 6.9 IP
Purcey: 4 - 5.7 IP
Marcum: 3 - 5.4 IP (including a 2 IP outting removed the other 2 averaged 7.2 IP)
Richmond: 2 - 5.5 IP
Parish: 1 - 5 IP (plus 4 in relief for 6.1 IP)
Clear pattern of pushing the vet's (Litsch/Halladay/AJ/Marcum) for 7 innings while the guys who weren't here all year were asked for 5-6 (Purcey, Richmond, Parrish). In 2007 in September AJ and Halladay were pushed harded though, while Litsch/Marcum were pushed a lot less and McGowan was at 6.7. Hmmm. Not sure if we have a strong pattern for Cito vs Gibbons here. Still, given past history I'd have to think Cito wants 7 innings per start from his starters if possible. Again, helping push the 6 man pen vs a 7 man.
Still, the best way is to check how often he used that full pen.
Relievers Used: Frequency
0: 8 (complete game)
1: 16
2: 20
3: 25
4: 14
5: 3
6: 1 (full pen used)
7: 0
8: 1 (September - Marcum going 2 IP)
Now for 2007...
Relievers Used: Frequency
0: 11 (complete game)
1: 21
2: 45
3: 50
4: 22
5: 9
6: 2 (full pen used)
7: 2 (both September)
Double Cito's number for a rough comparison (he managed for 88 games). Strangely enough it almost dead on matches Gibbons in 2007. Huh. Caught me off guard and kind of kills my belief that Cito wants to go with a 6 man pen. Did he do that in September too? Adjusting September usage to 162 games...
Relievers Used: Frequency
0: 19
1: 37
2: 37
3: 31
4: 25
5: 6
...
8: 6
Hmmm.... down to a max of 4 with just 2 times that he went above that number. Still, adjust to 162 and it works out to a similar ratio to Gibbons usage. Is it due to a desire to get everyone in or is it a desire to use that many pitchers? No matter how I cut it we are getting the same end result - Cito using the pen in a similar fashion to Gibbons.
What about his use of the 14th hitter vs #7 reliever in September? This is a Frasor vs Mench (or Wilkerson)
depending on Games or PA's (Frasor faced 20 batters in 3 1/3 IP vs
Wolfe's 14 in 4 IP). Frasor's 4 games vs Mench's 9 or Frasor's 20
batters faced vs Wilkerson's 13 PA's. This suggests the 14th hitter was used in more games but for fewer PA's in those games than the 7th reliever (which makes sense). Frasor's 4 appearances came when the score was tied (12th inning), Jays down by 5 (7th inning), down by 7 (8th inning), and down by 2 in the 9th. Just one high leverage and that was extra innings. What about Mench's 9 games? 6 were starts so right away he was in higher impact situations than Frasor, the 3 others were a pinch running situation (6th inning, up by 2), a defensive replacement in the 8th inning Jays up by 7, pinch hitting in the 8th of a game the Jays were up by 8 at the time. Wilkerson (the other 14th man) had 2 starts, 4 pinch running, 4 defensive replacements and a pinch hitting assignment. 5 of those games he came in part way through were decided by 2 runs or less. To be fair, Wolfe was used 3 times - Jays up by 1, down by 2 and down by 3 while Camp was used when the Jays were tied (extra innings), down by 2 and down by 1. Thus the 7th and beyond relievers were only used when the Jays were up once and twice when tied (extra innings).
So what does this all tell us? When he had a 14th man Cito used him in far more high pressure situations than he used his 7th reliever. The 7th man was pretty much saved for extra inning or 'give the pen a day off' stuff. The 14th hitter was used as a spot starter, pinch runner for tight situations and defensive replacement as well. I suspect Cito will push for that 6 man pen with the 6th man being sent down when the pen is tired to get a fresh arm up. The extra guy off the bench will be a fast runner with solid defense to cover in LF, or a slugger to mix into LF/1B/DH - ideally with more speed than Overbay/Barajas/Barrett.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2009021010252463