The first couple of standard projection methods have come out so lets start seeing what our 2009 Blue Jays might look like.
Using the Bill James projections publicly available at http://www.fangraphs.com/ and ZIPs - http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays/ and Marcel - http://www.editgrid.com/user/cwyers/2009_Marcels_Projections - mixed with the 2008 real stats we can start seeing what holes we should expect in 2009 (beyond what we know on the surface) plus how deep those holes are. I'm just using guys who actually are here, not guys we think/wish will be. Age is for 2009.
CA: Barajas - 33 years old, fairly predictable
2008: 249/294/410
James: 240/291/404
Marcel: 248/308/412
ZIPS: 242/298/401
1B: Overbay - 32 years old, fairly predictable
2008: 270/358/419
James: 271/355/433
Marcel: 272/357/435
ZIPS: 270/350/417
2B: Hill - 27 years old, 30 OPS point spread but close enough
2008: 263/324/361
James: 285/343/421
Marcel: 282/342/420
ZIPS: 281/334/400
3B: Rolen - 34 years old, 53 point spread - dispute time
2008: 262/349/431
James: 268/356/453 - gets better
Marcel: 264/347/429 - same
ZIPS: 259/340/416 - gets worse
SS: McDonald - 34 years old, any point in guessing?
2008: 210/255/269
James:226/268/292
Marcel: 234/286/329 - the monkey likes him, sorta
ZIPS: not listed which says it all
IF: Inglett - 31 years old, 23 point spread
2008: 297/355/407
James: 289/349/391
Marcel: 281/344/404
ZIPS: 283/338/379
IF: Scutaro - 33 years old, very predictable
2008: 267/341/356
James: 259/332/368
Marcel: 255/331/367
ZIPS: 261/334/364
IF: Bautista - 28 years old, improving but 31 point spread
2008: 238/313/405 (overall)
James: 251/336/428 - optimist again
Marcel: 245/334/410
ZIPS: 230/319/414
LF: Lind - 25 years old, 77 point spread (!)
2008: 282/316/439
James: 300/349/494 - sweet
Marcel: 276/328/438 - not sweet
ZIPS: 276/323/443 - not sweet
CF: Wells - 30 years old, uh oh - declines all around, 43 point spread
2008: 300/343/496
James: 281/336/480
Marcel: 275/338/465
ZIPS: 274/329/444
RF: Rios - 28 years old, reverse spread but improving.
2008: 291/337/461
James: 291/344/462
Marcel: 287/344/464 - James stole from the monkey!
ZIPS: 293/347/478
DH: Snider - 21 years old, 71 point spread(!)
2008: 301/338/466
James: 270/342/462 - like it
Marcel: 287/358/458 - Sweet
ZIPS: 251/304/441 - uh oh
Prospects who might get a lot of playing time...
CA: JP Arencibia - 23 years old, already hits about as well as Barajas
James: n/a
Marcel: n/a
ZIPS: 247/272/414
CA: Jeroloman - 24 years old, not a nice prediction
James: n/a
Marcel: n/a
ZIPS: 226/320/313
I skipped guys like Adams and Thigpen as it was just too depressing to think of them as guys getting more than 10 or 20 AB's.
Disputes are (50+ point OPS spread) with Lind, Snider, (both over 70 points) and Rolen. Lets hope ZIPS is wrong for all 3. PECOTA doesn't appear to have come out yet, and isn't free anyways. CHONE, MINER, and THT aren't out yet also. The good news is ZIPS came in last for projecting hitters when compared to THT/CHONE/PECOTA but sadly we don't have how Bill James and Marcel did (source: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-how-did-tht-projections-do/).
Pretty clear that Bill James is the optimist and ZIPS is the pessimist in this crowd. Marcel, well, he tends to match past production as that is how it is designed.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20081115004745426