Top 30 Prospects: #10 - #1

Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 09:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

On Tuesday we delivered #30-#21, and yesterday #20-#11. Now, we are proud to present our selections as the top 10 Blue Jay prospects for 2008.

10. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
Born August 8, 1985. Selected in the 5th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	20	NCAA	16	8	52	11.01	0.52	4.30	8.43	4.47
2007	21	NCAA	12	11	73	7.80	0.00	3.10	10.40	2.72
2007	21	A-	11	7	46	6.50	0.39	3.35	9.66	2.76
2008	22	A	22	22	121	7.44	0.15	3.12	9.22	2.83

Marc Rzepczynski entered 2008 looking to build off a solid debut season but a broken hand delayed the start to his season and ultimately resulted in him spending the entire season in A-ball Lansing, despite solid numbers and his age (as he was selected in the 2007 draft in the fifth round as a college senior).

Rzepczynski is a groundball specialist who induced three ground ball outs for every fly ball out. He has allowed just four homers in 166.2 career innings. He also allowed just six homers in four college seasons. Rzepczynski improved against right-handed batters this season and held them to a .229 average (and a .234 average against lefties). He also did a nice job of buckling down with runners in scoring position with a .186 average.

He has a solid repertoire with an average fastball at 88-91 mph, as well as a curveball, slider and change-up. Rzepczynski also has good command and improving control. He posted a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. If healthy, he should be a fast mover in 2009 and could see Double-A by mid-season.

9. Ricky Romero, LHP
Born November 6, 1984. Selected in the 1st round (6th overall) of the 2005 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA

2006 21 A+
10
10
58.1
7.41
0.77
2.16
9.41
2.47

2006
21
AA
12
12
67.1
8.69 0.94
3.48
5.48
5.08

2007
22
A+
1
1
4.2
7.71
0.00
1.93
3.86
3.86

2007
22
AA
18
18
88.1
9.98
0.92
5.20
8.15
4.89

2008
23
AA
21
21
121.2
10.31
0.67
4.07
6.77
4.96

2008
23
AAA
7
7
42.2
8.86
0.63
4.22
8.02
3.38

Ricky Romero has the physical skills, the "stuff" to pitch in the major leagues but does he have the command of his pitches and of his emotions? For Romero it will be command that gets him to the major leagues.

Romero was only 20 years old when he was drafted in 2005 and moved through Dunedin after 18 good starts over two seasons. But AA was a wall of sorts for Romero, in parts of three seasons in New Hampshire his ERA was 5.08; 4.89; and 4.96. When Blue Jay minor league coaches and managers talked about Romero they didn't talk about pitches they talked about command and they talked about Romero's need to control his emotions and his thought process to deliver his potential on the field. Romero on the field was working to control his emotions and the pressure of being a first round pick, and remember in 2008 Romero pitched as a 23 year old in AA. Here is what Brian Jeroloman said about Romero in early June:

Ricky is so talented and Ricky is a guy we love to have on the bump every day. He wants to win more than anyone else on the field, he will do whatever he can to win the game. Catching him is very easy, it is easy to get on the same page as him, he doesn't realize how good he is, I wish he could face himself and that could make him understand how tough it is to hit against him. He has such dynamite pitches that sometimes he tries to do too much, sometimes he gets in his own way. I love catching him, he is a bulldog, catchers love that....Once he realizes how good he is, that's when things are going to start falling for him.

2008 started out as more of the same for Romero, he had ERA's of 5.61 and 7.16 in April and May. But them something started to click, his ERA in June was 4.81 and in July it went down to 2.77. What appeared to happen was that Romero cut down his walks and strikeouts, he started to pitch to contact and wasn't trying to striekout every hitter. That improvement earned Romero a trip to AAA where he had a 3.37 ERA in seven starts. Romero still walks too many hitters, 20 in 42 IP at AAA but his improvement this year has to be very encouraging for the Jays organization. Romero will get a look in spring training but given his uneven development so far look for Romero to go back to AAA to start the season and try to consolidate his gains from 2008.

8. Scott Campbell, 2B
Born September 25, 1984. Selected in the 10th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	21	A-	240	14	0	0	30	31	2	10	.292	.397	.350
2007	22	A	390	17	4	7	68	56	4	5	.279	.390	.397
2008	23	AA	417	21	2	9	66	63	2	6	.302	.398	.427

The 6-foot, 200 pound native of Auckland, New Zealand once met Joe DiMaggio as a youngster and had a chance to sign with his favourite team, the Padres, after an Australian camp sponsored by Major League Baseball but he opted to go to college instead. He made a nice transition from Low A ball in Lansing to AA ball with New Hampshire in 2008, skipping Dunedin in the process. Campbell received plenty of recognition for his strong play as he was named an Eastern League all-star, made the post-season Eastern League all-star team as a second baseman, represented the Jays at the Futures Game in New York and won the R. Howard Webster Award as the Jays top player in New Hampshire. He got off to a great start with a .391 batting average in April and continued to hit well over .300 until a slump in August that saw him hit .155 for the month. He did suffer a hamstring injury late in the season and apparently had a sore hand which was stepped on during a dive back to first. Still, he hit .302 for the season which placed him ninth in the Eastern League and his .398 on-base percentage ranked him sixth. His plate discipline has been terrific so far in his minor league career with a K/BB total of 164 to 150 and his 30 extra base hits pushed his slugging percentage over .400 for the first time. A natural hitter with a natural swing, it's hoped Campbell can hit for a little more power down the line.

Campbell still needs to work on his defence and improve on turning the double play ball but he committed just seven errors last season, down from a dozen errors from 2007. As the first New Zealander ever to be drafted, the Gonzaga product should be in Las Vegas to begin 2009 with the possiblity for a call-up. He may also appear for Canada at the World Baseball Classic as his father grew up in Vancouver and his grandmother was born in Canada.

7. Justin Jackson, SS
Born December 11, 1988. Selected in the 1st round (45th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	RK	166	1	1	2	20	44	7	4	.187	.274	.241
2008	19	A	454	26	6	7	62	154	17	9	.238	.340	.368

A favourite of many Jays fans, Justin Jackson is part of the strong 2007 draft class that will likely reflect very well on Ricciardi and his scouting department in a few years. Jackson is easily the best shortstop prospect in the Jays system, but he’s also raw and still a long way from the majors. However, Jackson provides a great deal of hope at a barren position and has upside that few on this list can match.

Fielding is Jackson’s strength. Jackson is a plus defensive shortstop with good range, soft hands and a strong arm. A flashy fielder, Jackson has strong fundamentals on the diamond and is especially strong going to his left. If he makes the majors, you’ll likely see him on the Honour Roll on a regular basis. Jackson might very well make the majors regardless of how his bat progresses given natural defensive development. However, the Jays are hoping he turns into something more than a defensive specialist backup infielder.

Jackson has a good feel for hitting, even if he’s still raw at the plate. While questions remain about his ability to hit at higher levels. When drafted Jackson was reported to have a somewhat loopy swing and it was suggested the Jays would have to work to shorten it. Jackson improved both his walk rate and power in 2008, which are both positive signs. However, he still clearly strikes out far too often. Jackson wasn’t very strong on draft day either, but the jump in his slugging percentage indicates he’s been working on improving in that area, as well. Although the final numbers were nothing too impressive, 2008 was a positive year at the plate for Jackson given where he was at when drafted and hopefully reflects real developments he can build upon in 2009.

6. Brad Mills, LHP
Born March 5, 1985. Selected in the 4th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA

2006
21
NCAA
17
16
82.1
10.5
0.33
4.48
8.96
4.70

2007
22
NCAA
16
14
87.2
9.24
0.31
4.41
9.14
4.41

2007
22
A-
6
2
18.0
4.50
0.00
3.00
10.50
2.00

2008
23
A-
15
15
81.1
7.88
0.33
3.11
10.21
2.55

2008
23
A+
6
6
33.1
6.80
0.54
3.26
9.52
1.35

2008
23
AA
6
6
32.2
6.71
0.56
3.35
8.94
1.10

The Jays liked Brad Mills so much they drafted him twice. After not being able to sign Mills after his junior year when he was a 22nd round pick the Jays again picked Mills following his senior year in the 4th round after he graduated with a civil engineering degree.

Mills is a fastball, curveball, change pitcher who has been working on a cutter this season. Of his pitches the changeup is especially strong, and has been considered ‘plus-plus’. Also working in Mills favor is a delivery that makes it hard to pick up his pitches, which almost automatically qualifies him for the crafty lefty club.

Mills is a flyball pitcher; over the course of the season his groundball to flyball ratio was 1:1, and decreased to 0.6:1 once he left Lansing. While this is not ideal, Jays roving pitching instructor Dane Johnson noted that while his fastball is generally up in the zone the pitch comes out at the same level as his curveball so the batter has uncertainty in identifying the pitch.

A trip back to New Hampshire is likely for the start of the season, but with continued success Mills should be ready to pack his bags for Sin City, if not directly to Toronto where he has the chance to solidify the back end of the rotation.

5. Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Born April 26, 1989. Selected in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG

2007 18
R 165
6
0
3
25
47
3
0
.230
.339 .321

2008
19
A-
460
25
5
5
45
135
5
1
.259
.329
.367

Ahrens's 2008 season went pretty much as planned. Playing in the MWL at the age of 19, Ahrens spent most of his year learning a new position, while also refining his switch-hitting skills. While Ahrens's strikeout rate was higher than you'd like, and his lack of power a slight cause for concern, there were certainly some bright spots to his campaign. Despite being still relatively new at hitting lefthanded, Ahrens's L/R splits were remarkably similar. Against RHP, Ahrens OPS'd .695 compared to .670 versus lefties.

Since before he was drafted, Ahrens has drawn comparisons to Chipper Jones. Even at the best of times, this seemed somewhat ambitious. To wit, at the age of 19, Jones terrorized the Sally League pitching to the tune of a .925 OPS and 69/70 BB/K ratio. Ahrens's name isn't nearly as dumb, though.

What must be remembered is that Ahrens is still nearly two years younger than the average player in the MWL. If he can make adjustments early in 2009, Kevin could be spending a good part of his season in Dunedin.

4. David Cooper, 1B
Born February 12, 1987. Selected in the 1st round (17th overall) of the 2008 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	20	NCAA	204	14	0	12	30	21	2	6	.382	.450	.627
2008	21	NCAA	220	14	0	19	37	35	0	1	.359	.449	.682
2008	21	A-	85	10	1	2	10	16	0	1	.341	.411	.553
2008	21	A	96	10	0	2	10	14	0	0	.354	.415	.521
2008	21	A+	92	9	0	1	10	16	0	0	.304	.373	.435

The 2008 amateur draft featured a plethora of talented college first basemen and while David Cooper was not at the top of anyone's list, there wasn't any first baseman who had a better debut that Cooper (outside, perhaps, of St. Louis' Brett Wallace who was rumoured to be Toronto's first choice in the draft and was drafted by the club out of high school).

Cooper rocketed through the lower minors, including Auburn and Lansing, and ended the year in Dunedin where he held his own. Cooper hit .333/.399/.502 in 273 combined at-bats with five homers, 29 doubles and 51 RBI. He walked 30 times with 46 strikeouts. Statistically-speaking, Cooper still has work to do as he hit just .222 against southpaws at Dunedin. His ISO also declined at each level, from .212 to .167 to .130. Defensively, his game needs a lot of work and he made five errors in just 21 games in the Florida State League. Some scouts see him as a long-term designated hitter. He does, though, have an above-average arm for the position.

Cooper should open 2009 back in Dunedin but could be in line for a quick promotion to Double-A New Hampshire if he gets off to a quick start. It will also depend on whether or not the club is able to retain minor league free agent Brian Dopirak, who was recently named the Player of the Year for Dunedin (which he earned before a late-season promotion to Double-A, which cleared the way for Cooper's own promotion).

3. JP Arencibia, C
Born January 5, 1986. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	19	NCAA	216	17	0	11	20	30	0	0	.352	.419	.583
2007	20	NCAA	191	15	1	8	33	38	2	2	.330	.450	.545
2007	21	R+	228	17	1	3	14	56	0	0	.254	.309	.377
2008	22	A+	248	22	0	13	11	46	0	0	.315	.344	.560
2008	22	AA	262	14	0	14	7	55	0	0	.282	.302	.496

Ok, Arencibia doesn't walk. That's definitely a concern; one he'll have to address if he hopes to enjoy further success in AA or, obviously, in the Majors. But patience aside, Arencibia impressed throughout both of his 2008 stops. After hitting just 3 HR's in 228 at-bats in 2007, partly due to a wrist injury, Arencibia whacked 13 in roughly the same number for Dunedin and then followed that up with 14 more in 67 AA games for a total of 27 HRs in 510 AB. Arencibia's splits are fairly consistent as he OPS'd .856 against righties compared to .815 versus LHP.

Behind the plate, Arencibia's defence improved by most accounts. An already strong arm was buoyed by better positioning which resulted in Arencibia nabbing over 34% of would-be basestealers in New Hampshire.

With Robinzon Diaz now in Pittsburgh and Curtis Thigpen seemingly out of favour in Toronto, Arencibia's path to the Majors is much clearer than a year ago. As it stands now, Arencibia is likely due another full year in New Hampshire and/or Las Vegas, though with some improved plate discipline, he may yet see some time in Toronto in 2009.

2. Brett Cecil, LHP
Born July 2, 1986. Selected in the Supplemental round (38th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA

2006
20
NCAA
26
2
58.1
8.49
0.46
3.09
8.33
4.78

2007 21
NCAA
30
2
62.1 8.95 0.43 2.74
8.95 3.32

2007 21 A- 14
13
49.2 6.52 0.18 1.99 10.15 1.27

2008
22
A+
4
4
10.1
5.23
0.87
1.74
9.58
1.74

2008
22
AA
18
18
77.2
7.65
0.46
2.67
10.08
2.55

2008
22
AAA
6
6
30.2
8.22
0.29
4.70
9.10
4.11

Brett Cecil spent almost his entire college career in the bullpen. However, the Jays saw a number of pitches out of Cecil that made them believe that he could transition to a more valuable starting role. Chalk one up for the scouting staff here.

Two of the more important indicators of success at the major league level are strikeouts and groundballs. Most pitchers are lucky to be able to do one of those things well. Cecil does both well. At each stop Cecil was able to strike out more than one batter an inning and had a groundball to flyball ratio in excess of 2:1. His pitching repertoire includes an excellent slider, low 90s sinker and a developing change up thrown from a 3-quarters arm angle.

As a college reliever Cecil doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm. But on the flip side, he’s been handled cautiously as he builds up his arm for a full season of pitching. In 2007 he pitched 112 innings combined between Maryland and Auburn. In 2008 he pitched just 119 innings over 28 starts. Cecil will need to demonstrate that he can pitch late into games as well as maintaining his control he showed at AA (he walked 1 every two innings in a brief, end of the season, AAA stint).

With the injuries the Jays have experienced this year to Marcum and McGowan, and the likely departure of AJ Burnett this offseason, there’s an opportunity for Cecil to crack the Jays opening day roster. At the very least a mid-season call up is likely with Cecil becoming a fixture in the Jays rotation in 2010, if not earlier.

1. Travis Snider, OF
Born February 2, 1988. Selected in the 1st round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	18	R+	194	12	1	11	30	47	6	3	.325	.412	.567
2007	19	A	457	35	7	16	49	129	3	10	.313	.377	.525
2008	20	A+	61	5	0	4	5	22	1	0	.279	.333	.557
2008	20	AA	362	21	0	17	52	116	1	1	.262	.357	.461
2008	20	AAA	64	5	0	2	4	16	1	0	.344	.386	.516
2008	20	ML	73	6	0	2	5	23	0	0	.301	.338	.466

What can you say about Travis Snider that hasn't already been said? Bill James showed years ago that if a player makes it at the major league level as a 19, 20 or 21 year old the better a career that player will have. Snider's major-league performance, at age twenty, is a very promising sign for his future. Snider has been a top rated prospect since the end of his first pro-season and is now counted as one of the top ten prospects in all of baseball.

Snider had a slow start to 2008, an elbow injury in the spring limited his playing time and more seriously changed his swing. But once the elbow healed Snider got his good swing back and started hitting as he can. As soon as the weather warmed up Snider was promoted to AA and as soon as he started hitting as he can he was bumped to AAA, followed by a call to Toronto for the last month of the season.

Although Snider was succesful in the major leagues many young players have struggled in their second turn around the league. For that reason look for the Jays to plan on sending Snider to AAA to start next season unless he plays his way onto the team.

Aside from his physical tools Snider has strong "intangibles" also. Baseball America say his mental and competitive makeup is off the charts. In my discussions with coaches, managers and team officials I hear nothing but praise for his professionalism and leadership abilities.

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