August 15, 2008
Friday, August 15 2008 @ 10:00 AM EDT
Contributed by: Anders
The Jays waste a fine effort from Jesse Litsch upon his return from purgatory (AAA). The bullpen implodes - let's take a closer look at that.
The Jays pen has been undoubtedly the strongest aspect of the team this season. Despite a myriad of injuries, which have seen the Jeremy Accardo, Brian Tallet and Brian Wolfe miss time (and Janssen the whole season), the Jays have by far the best bullpen in the American League. Their ERA (admittedly not the best measure of bullpen performance) has been the best in the AL, at 2.87 - half a run better than Tampa Bay, which has the second best ERA in the league.
Let's take a look at that pen, in terms of decreasing levels of Pitcher Leverage (PLi), which is a rough measure of the importance of the situation in which they've pitched (courtesy Fangraphs, before yesterday's games).
| Pitcher |
IP |
PLi |
WPA |
ERA |
| BJ Ryan |
42.0 |
2.27 |
1.26 |
3.00 |
| Jeremy Accardo |
12.1 |
1.79 |
-0.59 |
6.57 |
| Scott Downs |
57.2 |
1.56 |
2.8 |
1.40 |
| Brandon League |
19.2 |
1.18 |
0.27 |
2.29 |
| Bones Carlson |
42.2 |
1.16 |
1.02 |
2.11 |
| Brian Wolfe |
18.0 |
1.03 |
-0.28 |
3.00 |
| Shawn Camp |
34.2 |
0.89 |
0.29 |
3.63 |
| Brian Tallet |
38.2 |
0.75 |
0.16 |
3.03 |
| Jason Frasor |
38.1 |
0.68 |
0.26 |
3.29 |
| Scott Richmond |
In the pen hasn't pitched as a reliever |
As we can see, BJ Ryan has worked in the heaviest situations so far this year - he's the closer, its what you'd expect. Discounting Jeremy Accardo for the moment, because of his lack of playing time, and Scott Downs has been the clear number two man in pen. Downs has a WPA of 2.80, which is the 8th best amongst relievers. That includes closers! He's essentially helped his team more than any other middle reliever in baseball (well, along with Ron Mahay and Brad Ziegler). By this measure, Downs has been the second best Jay on the year.
After that, the Jays relievers Leverage Index roughly matches their effectiveness. Bones Carlson has been the Jays rookie of the year, without doubt, and has pitched in some tough situations. Brandon League has also been charged with pitching in important spots, and has mostly risen to the occasion. After these two, Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor have been the two righties, and have been reasonably but not spectacularly effective - Camp more so (and Frasor less so now...) Brian Tallet had also pitched fairly effectively before his injury. In summary, the Jays have basically had two elite left handers this year - Bones and Downs, and Ryan has been up and down but mostly up. The right handers in the pen have been slightly less effective, but have still had a positive effect on the team.
In any event, the pen blew it last night. Jason Frasor, having pitched two innings the previous night, was called upon again to get several crucial outs in the 8th. Brandon League was unavailable (let's hope at least) having pitched in three straight games. Scott Downs had twisted his ankle the previous night, which was his third straight appearance, making him unavailable. So if we're keeping track here, the Jays essentially had 4 relievers available heading into last nights 8th inning - Frasor, Camp, Carlson and Ryan (sorry Scott Richmond, you don't make the cut). Now I'll leave the missives about closer usage to other people, and we'll operate under the assumption that the Jays had the potential to use Camp, Carlson and Frasor. This is how that worked out:
| J Carlson relieved J Litsch. | 1 | 0 |
| C Granderson flied out to center. | 1 | 0 |
| J Frasor relieved J Carlson. | 1 | 0 |
| P Polanco walked. | 1 | 0 |
| M Ordonez flied out to center. | 1 | 0 |
| P Polanco to second on wild pitch by J Frasor. | 1 | 0 |
| M Cabrera singled to left, P Polanco scored, M Cabrera to second advancing on throw. | 1 | 1 |
| G Sheffield intentionally walked. | 1 | 1 |
| M Joyce walked, M Cabrera to third, G Sheffield to second. | 1 | 1 |
| E Renteria doubled to center, M Cabrera and G Sheffield scored, M Joyce to third. | 1 | 3 |
| S Camp relieved J Frasor. | 1 | 3 |
| B Inge singled to left, M Joyce and E Renteria scored. | 1 | 5 |
| D Sardinha struck out swinging. |
Now this is nitpicking of the highest order, but the Jays, in a crucial 1-0 situation, had three relievers. In terms of effectiveness, they would rate Carlson, Camp, Frasor, based on this year. Oh, and Camp hadn't pitched in 3 games and Carlson in 5 games, while as the aforementioned Frasor went two innings the night before. So what happens? Carlson gave up a massive fly ball to Curtis Granderson that just stayed in the park, gets pulled, and in comes Frasor, who issues a walk, gets a fly out, throws a wild pitch, gives up a hit, issues an intentional walk and then a regular walk. He's left in, gives up a double and thats all she wrote. Shawn Camp comes in, gives up a single to put things well out of hand, and gets a k to end the inning. In essence, I'm curious as to why Carlson faced only one batter (he has been reasonably more effective against lefties, but fairly effective against righties), and then why Frasor, as opposed to Camp, was brought in.
In general I would have to say that I'm pretty happy with the way Cito has managed the bullpen. However, his shortage of relievers last night was of his own making. He didn't have to use Downs and League, his go to guys, in a 7-2 win to open the Tigers series. Downs seemed to suffer a freak injury, but would have been unavailable anyway. And last night's loss was an example of how even good managers can make bad decisions. Hindsight is 20-20, but a rested Shawn Camp (or Jesse Carlson) would probably have been a more effective option than a tired Jason Frasor, if not in the middle of the inning then at least when Frasor had loaded the bases. Of course, it doesn't really matter at this point, but we're Jays fans - we have to find something to complain about, right?
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