21 July 2008: Upgrades
Monday, July 21 2008 @ 06:55 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
They're something all baseball teams spend the off-season trying to accomplish. Who's been succeeding? Where, and how can we tell?
With great huge Data Tables, most likely. Anyway, the most improved offense in the major leagues this season works the south side of Chicago (the baddest part of town.) The White Sox scored 4.28 runs per game in 2007, the worst figure in the American League. So far this season, they're zipping along at 4.92 runs per game, which is an increase of almost 15%. They now have the fourth best offense in the AL.
This, by the way, might be a good time for you to forget every word I said back in the spring mocking the White Sox for even dreaming that such a thing might be possible.
Which offense has gone plunging off a cliff this season? Glad you asked. Its not the hometown heroes - mainly because their offense was already wandering in the desert, gazing wistfully up at the high peaks of Real Offensive Production. No, the team that has taken the biggest fall are the Yankees of New York. In 2007 they were truly the Bronx Bombers, scoring 5.98 runs per game, by far the most in the major leagues. This year, they're all the way down to 4.63 runs per game - it's a below average offense in either league, not even middle of the pack. They've lost 22.5% of their offense from one year to the next.
Let's have a look. This here Data Table ranks every major league offense by the extent to which it has improved, or not, from 2007 to 2008. The counting figures given here for 2008 are (obviously) adjusted to place them in a 162 game context as well.
RK TEAM R H 2B HR BB SB GDP BAVG OBP SLG DIFF
'08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07 '08 '07
Chicago Sox 797 693 1465 1341 292 249 217 190 558 532 70 78 154 138 .265 .246 .338 .318 .441 .404 15.0%
Chicago Cubs 855 752 1588 1530 327 340 184 151 643 500 89 86 125 127 .279 .271 .356 .333 .441 .422 13.7%
Minnesota 808 718 1577 1460 304 273 115 118 491 512 94 112 127 149 .280 .264 .337 .330 .412 .391 12.6%
Texas 893 816 1612 1460 362 298 195 179 603 503 89 88 114 129 .280 .263 .350 .328 .455 .426 9.4%
Pittsburgh 778 724 1475 1463 326 322 165 148 488 463 42 68 100 130 .260 .263 .323 .325 .412 .411 7.5%
St. Louis 769 725 1561 1513 295 279 177 141 623 506 70 56 146 154 .277 .274 .351 .337 .433 .405 6.1%
Baltimore 773 756 1458 1529 321 306 182 142 546 500 97 144 100 139 .261 .272 .329 .333 .427 .412 2.3%
Arizona 718 712 1361 1350 306 286 154 171 564 532 52 109 104 121 .250 .250 .324 .321 .407 .413 0.9%
Florida 793 790 1438 1504 291 340 234 201 501 521 78 105 90 107 .256 .267 .321 .336 .442 .448 0.4%
NY Mets 790 804 1494 1543 273 294 154 177 617 549 150 200 126 114 .264 .275 .338 .342 .406 .432 - 1.7%
Kansas City 688 706 1479 1447 301 300 119 102 397 428 86 78 131 151 .263 .261 .316 .322 .388 .388 - 2.6%
Houston 701 723 1443 1457 301 293 162 167 481 547 140 65 97 142 .259 .260 .321 .330 .408 .412 - 3.0%
Tampa Bay 751 782 1429 1500 250 291 174 187 604 545 170 131 106 119 .260 .268 .337 .336 .411 .433 - 4.0%
Milwaukee 763 801 1410 1455 332 310 212 231 523 501 114 96 90 112 .255 .262 .325 .329 .441 .456 - 4.7%
San Francisco 648 683 1408 1407 334 267 97 131 494 532 125 119 135 142 .254 .254 .319 .322 .381 .387 - 5.1%
Boston 818 867 1558 1561 340 352 182 166 605 689 128 96 155 146 .281 .279 .356 .362 .450 .444 - 5.6%
Oakland 693 741 1386 1430 291 295 117 171 583 664 87 52 115 142 .249 .256 .322 .338 .372 .407 - 6.5%
Washington 622 673 1337 1415 273 309 119 123 529 524 71 69 165 143 .243 .256 .317 .325 .364 .390 - 7.6%
Cincinnati 720 783 1366 1496 275 293 185 204 610 536 100 97 92 140 .249 .267 .327 .335 .408 .436 - 8.0%
Philadelphia 813 892 1448 1558 299 326 225 213 600 641 137 138 98 125 .257 .274 .334 .354 .442 .458 - 8.8%
Cleveland 737 811 1367 1504 322 305 160 178 521 590 79 72 116 114 .250 .268 .324 .343 .403 .428 - 9.1%
LA Dodgers 668 735 1385 1544 267 276 117 129 516 511 144 137 147 116 .253 .275 .320 .337 .376 .406 - 9.1%
Toronto 680 753 1421 1434 286 344 112 165 581 533 102 57 169 127 .258 .259 .333 .327 .382 .419 - 9.7%
Atlanta 721 810 1480 1562 282 328 155 176 611 534 57 64 147 137 .265 .275 .340 .339 .411 .435 -10.9%
Detroit 788 887 1540 1652 302 352 187 177 556 474 60 103 139 128 .273 .287 .340 .345 .437 .458 -11.1%
LA Angels 708 822 1418 1578 251 324 142 123 458 507 119 139 140 146 .258 .284 .319 .345 .391 .417 -13.9%
Colorado 713 860 1435 1591 322 313 155 171 563 622 133 100 129 140 .259 .280 .331 .354 .413 .437 -17.0%
San Diego 605 741 1384 1408 260 322 150 171 512 557 41 55 131 113 .247 .251 .315 .322 .385 .411 -18.4%
Seattle 648 794 1425 1629 262 284 124 153 464 389 114 81 130 154 .255 .287 .314 .337 .374 .425 -18.4%
NY Yankees 750 968 1490 1656 312 326 155 201 556 637 104 123 142 138 .267 .290 .340 .366 .414 .463 -22.5%
AL Average 753 794 1476 1513 301 307 155 161 538 536 100 97 132 137 .264 .270 .333 .338 .411 .423 - 5.1%
NL Average 727 763 1433 1487 296 306 165 169 552 536 96 98 119 129 .258 .266 .329 .334 .411 .422 - 4.7%
MLB Average 739 777 1454 1499 299 307 161 165 547 536 98 97 125 133 .261 .268 .331 .336 .411 .422 - 4.8%
You'll notice, by the way, that the Blue Jays are no longer on pace to shatter the all-time record for grounding into double plays. They're even in danger of losing their spot atop the major league leaderboard. So yeah, Cito is a genius...
Anyway, the specific thing I wanted to do here was locate the spots in the lineup where the most impressive upgrades have happened. So I broke down gathered all those team numbers for 2007 and 2008 for each position, used Runs Created per Game as my standard, and here's what I found out:
Catcher
Biggest Upgrade: NL - Chicago Cubs (179.6%); AL Tampa Bay Rays (172.6%)
It's pretty easy to see what's happened here. Two young players have stepped up in a big way. In fact, Geovany Soto taking over in Chicago for the dismal Jason Kendall-Michael Barret tag team is the biggest single offensive upgrade made by any major league team this season. The Cubs catchers created just 3.60 runs per game in 2007; this year's crew, led by Soto, have created 6.46 runs per game - that's a whopping 79.6% increase. The improvement in Tampa is almost as impressive. The main man involved, Dioner Navarro, was pretty awful with the stick in 2007 and his caddy (Josh Paul) was at some level way below terrible. But Navarro is still a very young player and this year he's a big step forward (OPS+ from 70 to 117). Plus his backup this year (Shawn Riggans) has been pretty good as well. Tampa's improved poroduction from their catchers is the second biggest upgrade in the American League, third biggest in the majors.
Biggest Collapse: NL - San Diego (43.8%); AL New York Yankees (47.6%)
Josh Bard was pretty good in 2007, but he's been terrible this year. Michael Barret has been terrible for quite some time, of course. Its the biggest collapse at any position in the National League. In New York, Jorge Posada, who was brilliant in 2007, has been injured for much of 2008 (he's caught in just 28 games), and his main replacement (Jose Molina) hasn't hit a lick.
First Base
Biggest Upgrade: NL - Houston (155.7%); AL - Boston (141%)
One very good player (Lance Berkmann) and one good player (Kevin Youkilis), each having the best season of his career. Berkmann is rebounding from what was a bit of a down season for him (although almost every other player in the game would happily settle for his 2007 OPS+ of 131.) Youkilis actually had his best season ever in 2007 prior to this year; so what he's doing this season is especially impressive.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Colorado (68.7%); AL - Tampa Bay (60.4%)
Neither Todd Helton nor Carlos Pena have actually been bad - but Helton is a 34 year old who after being one of the best hitters in his league year after year has suddenly declined to being just an ordinary guy. Pena is coming off a completely unexpected monster of a season which he seems determined to prove was his contribution to Baseball's Greatest Fluke Years by otherwise good players (see, for example, Norm Cash in 1961 and Adrian Beltre in 2004)
Second Base
Biggest Upgrade: NL - Florida (133.6%); AL - Texas (164.3%)
Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler, two young players moving into the heart of their primes, both having by far their best seasons. Seattle actually slips in between the two - its not that Jose Lopez has been good in 2008, but he's bounced back from a dreadful 2007 season.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Pittsburgh (57.4%); AL - New York (57.4%)
Freddy Sanchez represented the Pirates in the last two All-Star Games; he turned 30 just before Christmas and has gone straight off the cliff. Robinson Cano is only 25. Last year, he was just about as good as Alex Rios. This year... well, he's been nowhere near as good as Alex Rios, who's having a pretty disappointing year himself.
Third Base
Biggest Upgrade: NL - St.Louis (143.8%); AL - Chicago (164%)
I trust you're all familiar with Troy Glaus - he is still The Mighty Troy, he still has a big scary bat, and Scott Rolen and his injury replacements were not very good in 2007. Joe Crede has had a very nice bounce back season after his injury troubled 2007.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Florida (64%); AL - Los Angeles (67.1%)
Jorge Cantu has actually hit quite well for the Marlins, and I'm sure they have no complaints at all - it's just that they had Miguel Cabrera at this spot last season. In Anaheim, Chone Figgins has missed quite a bit of time, and hasn't been up to his previous level when he's been in the lineup. Plus, one of his replacements (Brandon Wood) has gone 8-64 this season.
Shortstop
Biggest Upgrade: NL - Chicago (152.5%); AL - Toronto (149.6%)
Ryan Theriot was very impressive in his first extended shot at major league action in 2006, but last year he was simply awful in his first full season. This year he's settled somewhere in between, with the BAVG and OBP where it was in 2006 although the bit of pop he showed back then may have been a short sample blip. What's happened in Toronto is that David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro have taken the at bats that were largely squandered in 2007 by Royce Clayton and John McDonald. Eck and Scuts have hardly been great - its debatable whether they've even been adequate - but Johnny Mac and Clayton were downright terrible. So its been a pretty significant upgrade anyway.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Colorado (61%); AL - Baltimore (39.2%)
Now that's what they call a sophomore jinx. Tulowitzki missed a lot of time with an injury and has hit so poorly when in the lineup (OPS+ of 39) that Rockies fans are muttering darkly about missing out on Ricky Romero. Well, maybe not. But Tulowitzki has been awful, and his main backup (Omar Quintanilla) hasn't hit much better.) The Orioles, of course, traded Miguel Tejada away, and have given most of the action at shortstop to one of the worst hitters drawing a major league salary. Freddie Bynum is hitting .179 and has more fingers on his right hand than extra base hits. Tejada's 2007 season wasn't particularly good by his own standards, and it was a good time to trade him - but shouldn't you have a replacement in mind? The Baltimore downgrade at shortstop is the biggest negative in the major leagues this season.
Left Field
Biggest Upgrade: NL - Pittsburgh (145.7%); AL - Baltimore (178%)
Here's where the Tejada trade pays off for the Orioles. Jay Payton had this job in 2007, and was bad. He's been bad again this year, but his badness has been limited to days when a southpaw starts for the opposition. The rest of the time Luke Scott plays here and he's been very good indeed. The Baltimore upgrade at this position is the biggest single improvement by any American League team this season, trailing only what Soto has done for the Cubs. Who knew? In Pittsburgh, Jason Bay is a good young player who has bounced back smartly from his first ever off year to play the way he always has. Detroit and the White Sox, thanks to Marcus Thames and Carlos Quentin, have actually made bigger upgrades than the Pirates.
Biggest Collapse: NL - New York (54.7%); AL - Los Angeles (60.9%)
Time waits for no one, and it won't wait for Moises Alou and Garret Anderson. Alou only played half the season in 2007, but he was simply outstanding when he was in the lineup. Alas, he's had just 49 at bats this season. Anderson bounced back a bit in 2007 from a couple of sub-par years, but it was probably a mirage. Gary Matthews isn't in the majors because of his bat. At least, I hope not.
Centre Field
Biggest Upgrade: NL - St.Louis (150.5%); AL - Chicago (131.1%)
Rick Ankiel is a bonafide hitter, and a huge improvement on the Ghost of Jim Edmonds, which is who the Cardinals were trotting out here last season. In Chicago, it's not so much that Nick Swisher has been good - he's having the worst season of his career, in fact. But last year the White Sox were giving these ABs to Jerry Owens and Darrin Erstad.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Houston (47.8%); AL - Minnesota (59.4%)
Last year, Hunter Pence had a tremendous rookie season for the Astros. This year, they moved him to RF (where he's had a disappointing year) and have played Michael Bourn in centre. Bourn's career numbers as a hitter look too much like John McDonald's for this to have a happy ending. In Minnesota, Torii Hunter had one of the best seasons of his fine career in 2007, and his replacement (Carlos Gomez) hasn't been very good.
Right Field
Biggest Upgrade: NL- St.Louis (150.8%); AL - Texas (148.8%)
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition, and no one expected Ryan Ludwick to have the hot streak he did earlier this season. He seems to be falling back to earth, but what he's given the Cardinals to this point has made him a big upgrade on Juan Encarnacion and Ludwick himself. David Murphy has played the most right field in Texas, and he's played very well - its also helped out that Josh Hamilton has played there a third of the time. The Murphy-Hamilton combo in RF has actually been a bigger upgrade than the Hamilton-Byrd combo in centre. This is mainly because Kenny Lofton played a lot of centre for Texas in 2007, and he's still pretty good. Nelson Cruz was their main right fielder in 2007, and he's not pretty good. In fact, he's the other thing. The Texas upgrade, by the way, just noses out what J.D. Drew has done in Boston, rallying from a very disappointing first year in the AL.
Biggest Collapse: NL - Atlanta (60.6%); AL - Detroit (59.1%)
Jeff Francoeur is still so young that it's unclear exactly what kind of hitter he's going to be, but this season he's hit for neither average nor power. He's got to do at least one of those things. In Detroit, Magglio Ordonez is having yet another very fine season, just like almost every other season he's had in the majors - the only problem is the act he's following, the astonishing, dominating season he had last year.
Designated Hitter
Biggest Upgrade: AL - Texas (144.8%)
Actually, the Astros have the biggest upgrade at DH but we're obviously not going to count that - it's 36 at bats. Texas has replaced one veteran NLer with a bad rep for another and its worked out just great. Milton Bradley has even been able to stay in the lineup and he's already hit almost as many homers as Sammy Sosa did last season. And hitting homers was about all Sammy did.
Biggest Collapse: AL - Seattle (44.5%)
Philadelphia DHs have gone 2-23 this season, but who cares. Meanwhile, Jose Vidro has gone right off the cliff. He's lost 99 points off his batting average, and no one gets away with that.
Finally, a couple of other Blue Jays notes:
The Jays offense has been better at three positions: shortstop, which we already mentioned, has the biggest improvement. The other two are catcher (127.3%), thanks to Rod Barajas replacing Jason Phillips; and first base (113.6%), where Lyle Overbay has been healthy. (Matt Stairs did not hit a lick in 2007 when he was playing first base.)
The biggest disaster has been DH (57.7%). Frank Thomas was pretty productive in 2007, and Matt Stairs has been pretty ordinary this year. Left Field (80.0%) is down - Stairs was sensational with the bat last season when he played the outfield. The situation in left has improved dramatically over the past few weeks, of course. Right field (80.3%) has been just as bad - Rios is having a very disappointing season. The injuries to Wells only makes the situation worse, because Brad Wilkerson has filled in in RF and Brad hasn't hit much of anything. There's been falloff at second base (83.3%) - Aaron Hill wasn't having a very good season with the bat before he got hurt, and Marco Scutaro has actually matched Hill'ss offensive production at 2b. Which is alarming. Anyway, Joe Inglett has been an upgrade on both of them. Over at third base (90.3%), Scott Rolen is still a good player and a defensive whiz but he's nowhere near being the kind of offensive force that Troy Glaus is. Rolen has at least played a larger portion of the team's games than Glaus was able to last year, which is good because Scutaro hasn't hit a lick when he's been in at 3b. The problem in centre field (93.5%) is that while Vernon Wells has played better than he did last year, he's been on the DL twice now and Alex Rios hasn't hit while he's been playing centre.
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