30 June 2008: Silver Blaze and the Bend Sinister

Monday, June 30 2008 @ 02:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Gregory: "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."

Which one of my old professors used to call "The Silver Blaze Effect."

Once more, with a left-handed pitcher opposing them, the Blue Jays hitters did approximately as much as the dog in the night-time. Which is a curious incident.

The excellent work of A.J. Burnett allowed the team to sneak away with a victory, despite putting but a single run on the board. Still, the team has but a 7-15 record in games where the opposition started a southpaw. Who saw this coming? Toronto's RH heavy lineup figured to punish left-handers for even showing up. It was the regular folks that they were worried about. This was one of the reasons Shannon Stewart was brought in ahead of Reed Johnson.

So what's happened?

This. Read 'em and weep.

 9 April - Greg Smith, Oak      L  3-6
10 April - Dana Eveland, Oak    L  2-3
16 April - Kason Gabbard, Tex   L  5-7
18 April - Kenny Rogers, Det    L  4-8
20 April - Nate Robertson, Det  W  5-3
29 April - Jon Lester, Bos      L  0-1
 2 May   - Mark Buehrle, Chi    W  2-0
 3 May   - John Danks, Chi      W  5-2
 9 May   - C.C. Sabathia, Cle   L  1-6
10 May   - Aaron Laffey, Cle    L  0-12
12 May   - Cliff Lee, Cle       W  3-0
15 May   - Glen Perkins, Min    W  3-2
16 May   - Jamie Moyer, Pha     L  3-10
27 May   - Greg Smith, Oak      L  1-3
29 May   - Dana Eveland, Oak    W 12-0
 6 June  - Brian Burres, Bal    L  5-6
 9 June  - Jarrod Washburn, Sea L  2-3
15 June  - Ted Lilly, Chi       L  4-7
17 June  - Manny Parra, Mil     L  0-7
20 June  - Zach Duke, Pgh       L  0-1
21 June  - Paul Maholm, Pgh     L  3-6
29 June  - Jo-Jo Reyes, Atl     W  1-0

Yup, it had been exactly one month since the Jays won a game started by an opposing left-hander. You will note that four of the seven wins the Jays have managed came when their own pitcher tossed a shutout at the other team. Let's put this another way:

The Jays are 3-15 against LF starters when they don't get a shutout from their own pitcher.

The Jays have beaten the crap out of a left-handed starter exactly once all year - Dana Eveland on May 29. Even John Danks and Kason Gabbard held the Jays to two runs each - the rest of the scoring in those games came against right-handed relievers.

As you can see, none of these games were started by Lefty Grove or Sandy Koufax. No sign of Warren Spahn or Steve Carlton. Even Johan Santana and Randy Johnson have missed the Jays this season. OK, C.C. Sabathia has a Cy Young Award and a few of these guys (Moyer, Buehrle, Lilly, Rogers) have gone to All-Star Games and Cliff Lee probably will this season. But still...

First, let's have a look at everybody's career splits:

           Split   G   AB   H   2B 3B  HR  RBI BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP  SB CS  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS   tOPS+
                                                                                                        
BARAJAS   vs RHP  531 1433  352  88  1  49 189  81  8 264  16 17 14  12  25   1  2 .246 .291 .411  .702   98
BARAJAS   vs LHP  244  461  110  32  0  19  70  35  6  69   7  5  3   3  12   0  0 .239 .300 .432  .732  106    
                                                                                                     
ECKSTEIN  vs RHP  918 2809  805 118 13  15 205 203  1 251  85 63 24  40  46  73 27 .287 .350 .354  .704   97
ECKSTEIN  vs LHP  493 1146  325  54  5  16  98  96  1  70  39 14  8  18  26  39 16 .284 .357 .381  .738  107    
                                                                                                        
HILL      vs RHP  438 1268  352  82  6  17 138  84  3 170  16 12 13  12  35   9  6 .278 .327 .392  .719   92
HILL      vs LHP  209  452  137  32  2  11  50  49  3  70   1  2  2   6  10   6  2 .303 .371 .456  .827  121    

McDONALD  vs RHP  424  957  221  41  7   5  51  37  0 156  10 25  4  13  19  19  8 .231 .266 .304  .570   93 
McDONALD  vs LHP  230  454  115  19  4   3  53  30  0  67   5 13  5   5  12   9  2 .253 .304 .333  .636  116
                                                                                                       
MENCH     vs RHP  580 1536  390  89  9  49 206 109  4 258  22  2 15  16  23   5  5 .254 .310 .419  .729   86
MENCH     vs LHP  353  746  224  53  5  40 119  65  9  59   5  0  8  11   9   6  1 .300 .357 .546  .902  128    
                                                                                                        
OVERBAY   vs RHP  699 1929  544 147  4  59 268 305 36 360   2  1 14  15  55  11  3 .282 .378 .454  .832  106
OVERBAY   vs LHP  388  726  203  50  3  18  89  37  0 170   7  0  6   8  27   1  3 .280 .318 .431  .749   84    
                                                                                                        
RIOS      vs RHP  559 1695  488  99 21  40 200 120  3 326  14  1 18  17  33  67 20 .288 .337 .442  .779   99
RIOS      vs LHP  279  625  177  45  7  16  83  57  4 122   2  0  7   8  26  10  7 .283 .342 .454  .796  103    
                                                                                                        
ROLEN     vs RHP 1473 4433 1259 310 28 204 802 482 25 870  85  1 53  35  97  84 34 .284 .361 .505  .866   97
ROLEN     vs LHP  684 1273  357  87  6  63 236 260 27 260  17  0 16  15  23  24  8 .280 .405 .507  .912  109    
                                                                                                        
SCUTARO   vs RHP  524 1404  373  76  9  20 147 120  3 201   6 15 13  21  41  16  6 .266 .323 .375  .699  100
SCUTARO   vs LHP  252  473  112  22  3  13  53  61  2  69   0  3  2   7   9   3  1 .237 .323 .378  .701  100    
                                                                                                        
STAIRS    vs RHP 1501 3931 1076 235 12 212 687 542 47 758  41  5 31  31  85  19 20 .274 .365 .501  .866  105
STAIRS    vs LHP  595  875  206  44  0  37 156 113  1 236  11  0  7   8  20   9  4 .235 .328 .413  .741   77    
                                                                                                        
STEWART   vs RHP 1278 4246 1257 245 31  91 461 351 11 501  59 13 26  53  93 152 49 .296 .356 .433  .789  100
STEWART   vs LHP  562 1328  396  70 10  24 119 153  5 183  15  2 12  18  22  44 22 .298 .374 .420  .794  102    
                                                                                                        
WELLS     vs RHP  953 3019  813 174 18 124 452 197  5 450  21  2 37  26  70  49 13 .269 .315 .462  .777   92
WELLS     vs LHP  476 1021  325  71  6  41 165  96  6 122   3  0  9  15  33  16  8 .318 .376 .520  .896  123    
                                                                                                       
WILKERSON vs RHP  840 2350  573 143 22  93 278 377 30 707  12 15 14  12  28  44 34 .244 .349 .442  .792   99
WILKERSON vs LHP  431  750  199  47  4  28 112 104  0 223  12  9  8   7   8   9  9 .265 .360 .451  .811  104    
                                                                                                        
ZAUN      vs RHP  974 2382  590 125  8  66 317 326 24 373  18 12 22  23  55  17 12 .248 .340 .390  .730   99
ZAUN      vs LHP  416  646  174  40  1  11  74  98  5  90   4  2  8   1  19   6  5 .269 .365 .385  .751  105

As already noted, this is a right-handed heavy lineup. Only three left-handed batters have had more than a dozen at bats against southpaws this season (so far) - and one of them, Brad Wilkerson, has had a reverse platoon split his entire career. With the exception of Lyle Overbay and Matt Stairs, everyone on this team normally hits better against left-handed pitching. Everyone. And even Overbay has been able to maintain his .280 batting average against southpaws, although he loses a bit of his power and doesn't walk nearly as often. Stairs is the guy who loses the most production against southpaws - he drops almost 40 points of BAVG and almost 100 points of slugging.

The sole switch-hitter on the roster, Gregg Zaun, has hit a little bit better against lefties over the course of his career.

But most of the RH batters don't have much in the way of platoon splits, either. Kevin Mench, a lefty-basher his entire career (until he arrived in Toronto this season) had by far the biggest platoon split on the team. Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill both hit significantly better against southpaws. But the rest of the RH lineup was pretty much indifferent to the type of pitcher on the mound.

So who's acting funny?

Lots of guys. Behold:

NAME            GP  AB    R   H   2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   SO  SB  CS  HP  SH  SF GDP   BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                                   
David Eckstein  22   42   6   12   4   0   1   4    6   1   0   0   2   0   0   3  .286   .400   .452   .852
Aaron Hill      20   42   3   12   4   0   0   4   10   8   1   0   1   1   1   0  .286   .426   .381   .807
Shannon Stewart 24   49   3   14   1   1   1   7    5   6   0   0   3   0   1   2  .286   .379   .408   .787
Vernon Wells    24   52   6   16   4   0   0   3    4  10   1   0   0   0   1   3  .308   .351   .385   .735
Joe Inglett      7    8   0    2   1   0   0   0    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  .250   .333   .375   .708
Rod Barajas     21   52   4   14   5   0   1   8    1   6   0   0   0   0   0   2  .269   .283   .423   .706
Scott Rolen     27   52   5   12   4   0   0   2    9   8   1   0   2   0   0   1  .231   .365   .308   .673
Gregg Zaun      20   32   3    6   1   0   1   2    8   4   0   0   0   0   0   0  .188   .350   .313   .663
Brad Wilkerson  17   29   3    8   1   0   0   4    3   9   0   0   0   2   1   1  .276   .333   .310   .644
Marco Scutaro   29   68   6   16   1   1   1   5    8   8   0   0   0   0   0   0  .235   .316   .324   .639
Frank Thomas     7   14   1    2   0   0   1   2    2   3   0   0   0   0   0   1  .143   .250   .357   .607
Alex Rios       32   83   8   19   6   0   1   9    4  22   2   0   0   0   2   5  .229   .258   .337   .596
Lyle Overbay    39   77   5   18   3   0   0   3    6  21   0   1   0   0   0   4  .234   .289   .273   .562
Kevin Mench     19   42   4    9   2   0   0   3    5   6   1   0   0   0   1   2  .214   .292   .262   .554
Curtis Thigpen   1    1   0    0   0   0   0   0    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .500   .000   .500
John McDonald    9   19   3    4   0   0   0   1    2   5   0   0   0   1   0   0  .211   .286   .211   .496
Matt Stairs     14   18   0    1   0   0   0   0    1   9   0   0   0   0   0   0  .056   .105   .056   .161
Adam Lind        7    9   1    0   0   0   0   0    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1  .000   .100   .000   .100
Jorge Velandia   2    7   0    0   0   0   0   0    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Roy Halladay     1    3   0    0   0   0   0   0    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Dustin McGowan   1    1   0    0   0   0   0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Jesse Litsch     2    3   0    0   0   0   0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
David Purcey     1    1   0    0   0   0   0   0    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000

Totals          55  704  61  165  37   2   7  57   77 134   6   1   8   4   7  25  .234   .314   .322   .637

With Mench falling off the planet, the nearest thing to a lefty-masher on the roster is Vernon Wells. V-Dub's doing okay against southpaws this season, except that he's yet to homer against a southpaw. It's only 52 ABs, of course - he'd normally only have 2 HRs anyway - but that's the main reason his slugging and OPS is down a little.

Alex Rios has not had much of a platoon split over his career, but this season he's hitting more than 70 points better against RH pitching. Likewise Scott Rolen - Rolen has had very little in the way of a platoon split over his career - he's basically the same hitter no matter who's pitching. The southpaws walk him more often. Not this year. Like Rios, he's hitting 60 points better against RH, and like Wells he has yet to homer against a southpaw.

Overbay has yet to homer against a lefty, and he's hitting 40 points lower against them - he's come up with a Matt Stairs type platoon split. (Stairs himself is 1-18 against LHP, which sort of speaks for itself.) Both the catchers are hitting better against RH, which is acceptable. Zaun isn't going to play much against left-handers anyway. Barajas has been a little better against righties this year as well, but not by a large margin. Aaron Hill, missing in action, has hit significantly better against southpaws in his brief career - only Mench and Wells gain more production, and Hill has stayed true to form this season.

The real big stories then: Wells' power outage, Overbay developing a normal platoon split, and Rios and Rolen stumbling into a weird mirror universe.

The cumulative effect has been to turn the team into something rather like John McDonald when a southpaw takes the hill. I actually like David Eckstein, but he should not be leading your team in any offensive category. Except maybe sac bunts, and getting hit by the pitch. Anything else is a very bad sign, and suggests an oncoming apocalypse. He certainly should not be your team's leader in OPS, nor should he be tied for the team lead in homers (thanks to that three run shot off Nate Robertson.)

It is, of course, a very small sample size. We take our comfort where we find it, right?

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