Notes on A Dysfunctional Offense

Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 09:55 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Dewey was wondering if the Blue jays lead the majors in runners left on base. No, it just seems that way.

By popular demand, a Data Table!

The teams are listed by the number of runs they score per game. You will notice that the Blue Jays are second in the AL in people left on base - the Rangers, who score more runs than anyone else in the league, also leave more runners on base. That is quite normal.

What the Blue Jays are doing is not.

                                                                         Est. Base     Lost Surviving    
Team              RPG   HR  RBI  AVG   SLG   SB CS  BB  HBP GDP OBP  LOB  Runners OE 1  BRs   BRs    OE 2
                                                                    
Texas             5.55  81  346  .284  .465  35  8  244  21  45 .354  511   923   .391   53    870   .415
Boston            5.06  71  315  .282  .444  58 12  245  29  70 .357  501   910   .367   82    828   .403
Chicago White Sox 4.77  83  299  .259  .429  22 11  228  26  63 .335  443   820   .372   74    746   .409
Detroit           4.65  62  284  .259  .411  21  7  227  19  56 .333  445   800   .366   63    737   .398
Tampa Bay         4.63  66  284  .264  .412  72 25  225  18  43 .335  452   817   .362   68    749   .395
Minnesota         4.59  40  281  .270  .391  45 19  182   9  50 .325  437   791   .372   69    722   .407
NY Yankees        4.58  65  286  .273  .429  31 14  202  27  58 .340  462   830   .353   72    758   .387
AL AVERAGE        4.50  59  276  .261  .404  41 15  215  21  53 .331  457   810   .356   68    742   .389
Oakland           4.49  46  268  .252  .379  29  8  249  14  50 .331  478   808   .350   58    750   .377
Cleveland         4.42  58  271  .240  .381  33 10  219  41  45 .320  446   773   .366   55    718   .394
LA Angels         4.22  54  260  .256  .383  53 18  193  21  58 .320  442   778   .352   76    702   .390
Baltimore         4.21  67  251  .252  .407  43 20  206  13  41 .320  423   756   .351   61    695   .381
Toronto           4.14  41  253  .262  .377  46 22  255  26  76 .341  504   868   .315   98    770   .355
Seattle           4.00  53  240  .249  .377  46 13  178   9  49 .306  428   728   .352   62    666   .384
Kansas City       3.70  39  223  .257  .372  36 20  154  17  44 .310  428   736   .322   64    672   .353
                                                                
Chicago Cubs      5.50  70  333  .282  .445  42 17  262  25  47 .361  513   920   .383   64    856   .411
Philadelphia      5.29  93  331  .263  .454  43  7  245  25  39 .341  481   859   .400   46    813   .423
Florida           4.97  95  299  .261  .457  31 11  198  19  34 .326  438   782   .400   45    737   .425
Pittsburgh        4.83  62  295  .258  .402  18  7  210  27  38 .327  470   815   .379   45    770   .401
Arizona           4.78  71  291  .250  .427  24  8  242  22  39 .330  449   796   .384   47    749   .409
NY Mets           4.68  53  275  .254  .392  62 14  244  12  46 .330  470   797   .364   60    737   .393
St. Louis         4.66  58  289  .273  .412  28 13  278  16  59 .356  524   901   .336   72    829   .366
Atlanta           4.66  64  285  .275  .427  25 10  256  13  60 .352  519   874   .341   70    804   .371
Cincinnati        4.60  74  282  .255  .415  48 22  254  14  42 .333  481   831   .360   64    767   .390
NL AVERAGE        4.55  63  276  .259  .410  39 14  227  21  47 .332  474   816   .356   61    755   .384
Houston           4.50  64  272  .264  .416  64 20  177  18  37 .322  427   769   .375   57    712   .404
Milwaukee         4.41  70  266  .252  .413  44 17  203  34  36 .323  464   781   .356   53    728   .382
LA Dodgers        4.33  43  248  .264  .382  54 20  209  15  60 .332  438   783   .349   80    703   .388
Colorado          4.16  50  252  .254  .393  47 14  219  20  48 .326  482   796   .329   62    734   .357
San Francisco     4.09  46  255  .262  .403  55 21  197  21  55 .326  467   797   .329   76    721   .363
San Diego         3.66  53  228  .242  .369  21  6  229  25  46 .316  507   803   .296   52    751   .317
Washington        3.62  42  222  .232  .348  23 13  215  31  62 .309  455   746   .315   75    671   .350

Let me explain some of the more cryptic headers. Estimated Base Runners simply adds a teams hits and walks and hit by pitches. This doesn't account for everyone who reaches base - guys reach on errors as well, which appear as outs in the batting record. We're hoping that they're fairly even at this point in the season. As a rule, though, RH batters reach base on error more often than LH batters, and Toronto does have a somewhat RH heavy lineup.

The Jays are 3rd in the league in Estimated Base Runners with 868, trailing only Texas and Boston. No surprise there - they're third in ONP, behind the same two teams. Alas, they have managed to get only 273 of those base runners safely home. If I divide those runs by the number of BaseRunners, I get .315 - which I'm calling Offensive Efficiency to save time. That .315 figure is the worst in the American League, and comes very close to being the worst in the majors.

There are some obvious reasons for this. The Blue Jays have lost more base runners through double plays and caught stealing than any other team in the majors. When we take those lost runners out of the picture - generallly 30 more lost base runners than the other AL teams - they're still third in the league in number of runners, but much closer to the middle of the pack. They're still not very good at turning those Runners into Runs (that's the OE 2 column, which divides Runs Scored by Surviving Base Runners), but the gap isn't as wide.

The problem is pretty obvious. It's a Power Shortage. Toronto is 13th in the league in Slugging. They're 12th in the league in Home Runs. They're even below the league average in hitting doubles, which absolutely boggles the mind. There are only so many runs you can score by hitting singles.

Weird things are afoot, and the weirdest of all is that the more runs are being scored in the National League than the American League.

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