First Round Pitchers

Wednesday, June 04 2008 @ 06:56 AM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Does it make any sense to choose a high school pitcher in the first round?

As is well known, Bill James (among others) thinks this is a pretty dumb idea:

Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys.

The problem with drafting high school pitchers is pretty obvious. It's not that it's extremely difficult to project what they're going to develop into six or seven years down the road. It is difficult, and it's difficult for high school hitters as well. But that's not the problem.

The problem is that pitchers hurt themselves. The vast majority of pitchers hurt themselves, and the years between 18 and 22 are when an awful lot of those career changing injuries happen. Drafting a high school pitcher amounts to rolling the dice on one guy's chance to pitch for six or seven years without getting hurt. And because the vast majority of pitchers do get hurt, that can't help but be a bad gamble. Whereas a college pitcher has already made it at least partially through that gauntlet. You're picking among the survivors.

That's the logic, and there have been no shortage of studies that support that thinking. See here and here, for example. And here, for you BP subscribers.

Is it still true?

The Atlanta Braves, for example, have a very strong preference for drafting high school players. The Braves' thinking has nothing to do with high school players having a higher ceiling than college players, which is a pretty dubious proposition anyway. The Braves want to take over a player's development as soon as possible. They don't want fully formed, or partially formed players - they want to be the ones who are doing the forming. Much of the Braves success over the past two decades was built on three high school pitchers - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. All three of whom would be in the Hall of Fame if they weren't still active. None of those three were taken in the first round, and only Glavine was actually drafted by Atlanta.

All these years later, Glavine and Smoltz are part of this year's Braves rotation, along with a man from another recent Big Three - Tim Hudson, who was drafted out of college along with Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in the late 1990s, who are also still active. Well, more or less. Mulder is on the verge of packing it in and Zito is scuffling. To say the least.

Anyway, I thought I'd check in on pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004. It seemed to me that looking any later than that is extremely unfair to high school pitchers. How are they doing?

There were 44 high school pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004

Year  Team       Pitcher               W   L    SV   ERA        
                                
2001  Athletics  Jeremy Bonderman     59   66        4.75    Pasco HS (WA)    
2002  Mets       Scott Kazmir         39   30        3.54    Cypress Falls HS (Houston)    
2002  Phillies   Cole Hamels          29   16        3.58    Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)    
2002  Royals     Zack Greinke         26   37    1   4.39    Apopka HS (FL)    
2002  Giants     Matt Cain            24   32        3.82    Houston HS (Germantown,TN)    
2003  Dodgers    Chad Billingsley     23   15        3.53    Defiance Sr HS,OH    
2000  Braves     Adam Wainwright      21   15    3   3.45    Glynn Academy HS (Brunswick,GA)    
2000  Blue Jays  Dustin McGowan       18   19        4.66    Long County HS (Ludowici,GA)    
2000  Giants     Boof Bonser          17   24        5.03    Gibbs HS (St. Petersburg,FL)    
2001  Phillies   Gavin Floyd          13   13        5.48    Mt. St. Joseph HS (Severna Park,MD)    
2003  Rangers    John Danks           10   17        4.68    Round Rock HS (TX)    
2001  Braves     Macay McBride         6    2    2   4.35    Screven County HS (Sylvania,GA)    
2000  Reds       Dustin Moseley        6    6        5.54    Arkansas HS (Texarkana,AR)    
2004  Yankees    Philip Hughes         5    7        5.51    Foothill HS (Santa Ana,CA)    
2000  Pirates    Sean Burnett          5    5        5.33    Wellington Community HS (FL)          AAA
2004  Reds       Homer Bailey          4    2        5.76    LaGrange HS (TX)    
2000  Mets       Bobby Keppel          0    4        6.10    Desmet Jesuit HS (St. Louis,MO)       AAA
2000  Indians    Derek Thompson        0    0        3.50    Land O'Lakes HS (FL)                  inactive
2000  Braves     Kelly Johnson                               Westwood HS (Austin,TX)               NL (2b)
2000  Royals     Mike Stodolka                               Centennial HS (Corona,CA)             AAA (OF)
2004  Rangers    Eric Hurley                                 Wolfson Senior HS (FL)                AAA
2003  Indians    Adam Miller                                 Mckinney HS (TX)                      AAA
2001  Indians    J.D. Martin                                 Burroughs HS (Ridgecrest,CA)          AAA
2002  Dodgers    Greg Miller                                 Esperanza HS (Yorba Linda,CA)         AAA
2004  WhiteSox   Giovany Gonzalez                            Monsignor Edward Pace HS (Miami,FL)   AAA
2004  Twins      Steven Waldrop                              Farragut HS (Knoxville,TN)            AA
2004  Twins      Jay Rainville                               Bishop Hendricken HS (Warwick,RI)     AA
2004  Dodgers    Timothy Elbert                              Seneca HS (MO)                        AA
2001  WhiteSox   Kris Honel                                  Providence Catholic HS (New Lenox,IL) AA
2001  Brewers    Mike Jones                                  Thunderbird HS (Phoenix,AZ)           AA
2001  Indians    Daniel Denham                               Deer Valley HS,CA                     AA
2002  Nationals  Clint Everts                                Cypress Falls HS (Houston)            A
2003  Cubs       Luis Atilano                                Gabriela Mistral (PR)                 A
2003  Marlins    Jeffrey Allison                             Veterans Memorial HS (MA)             A
2003  Giants     Roger Whitaker                              Lufkin HS (TX)                        A
2004  Brewers    Mark Rogers                                 Mt Ararat School (ME)                 inactive
2000  Angels     Joe Torres                                  Gateway HS (Kissimmee,FL)             inactive
2000  Padres     Mark Phillips                               Hanover HS (PA)                       inactive
2000  Rockies    Matt Harrington                             Palmdale HS (CA)                      inactive
2000  Tigers     Matthew Wheatland                           Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)     inactive
2001  Royals     Colt Griffin                                Marshall HS (TX)                      inactive
2002  Reds       Christopher Gruler                          Liberty Union HS (Oakley,CA)          inactive
2001  Reds       Jeremy Sowers                               Ballard HS,KY                         No Sign
2001  Indians    Alan Horne                                  Marianna HS (Marianna,FL)             No Sign

So far this group has a 305-310 record in the majors. And they include an everyday player, which is kind of cool!

And here are the 66 pitchers drafted out of college during the same period.

Year  Team       Pitcher               W   L    SV    ERA        
                                
2002  Rockies    Jeff Francis         48   39         4.81    University of Lethbridge    
2002  Athletics  Joe Blanton          45   40         4.08    University of Kentucky    
2001  Cubs       Mark Prior           42   29         3.51    University of Southern California    
2001  Giants     Noah Lowry           40   31         4.03    Pepperdine University    
2004  Tigers     Justin Verlander     37   24         3.95    Old Dominion University    
2004  Angels     Jered Weaver         28   15         3.60    Long Beach State University    
2003  Pirates    Paul Maholm          23   31         4.67    Mississippi State University    
2002  Angels     Joe Saunders         23   10         4.15    Virginia Tech University    
2003  Nationals  Chad Cordero         20   14   128   2.78    Cal St San Bernardino,CA    
2001  Mets       Aaron Heilman        19   27     6   4.22    University of Notre Dame    
2001  Giants     Brad Hennessey       17   22    20   4.71    Youngstown State University    
2004  Athletics  Huston Street        14    8    88   2.70    University of Texas    
2000  Mets       Billy Traber         12   14         5.37    Loyola Marymount University    
2003  Reds       Ryan Wagner          11    9         4.79    University of Houston    
2002  Indians    Jeremy Guthrie        9   11         3.99    Stanford University    
2004  Marlins    Taylor Tankersley     8    3     4   3.98    University of Alabama    
2001  D'Rays     Dewon Brazelton       8   25         6.38    Middle Tennessee State University    AAA-DL
2004  Royals     J.P. Howell           8   14         5.88    University of Texas    
2004  Indians    Jeremy Sowers         8   10         4.83    Vanderbilt University    
2001  Athletics  John Rheinecker       8    9         5.65    Missouri State University    
2002  Orioles    Adam Loewen           8    7         5.31    Fraser Valley Christian HS     
2004  Nationals  Bill Bray             7    5     3   4.33    College of William and Mary    
2003  Giants     David Aardsma         7    2         4.71    Rice University    
2000  Nationals  Justin Wayne          5    8         6.13    Stanford University                  inactive
2003  Padres     Tim Stauffer          4    7         6.37    University of Richmond    
2000  Angels     Chris Bootcheck       3    6     1   5.80    Auburn University    
2000  Red Sox    Phil Dumatrait        2    6         6.40    Bakersfield Junior College    
2002  WhiteSox   Royce Ring            2    3         3.68    San Diego State University    
2004  Blue Jays  Zach Jackson          2    2         5.36    Texas A&M University    
2004  Twins      Glen Perkins          2    2         3.36    University of Minnesota-Duluth    
2001  Pirates    John Van Benschoten   1   12         8.84    Kent State University    
2000  Twins      Adam Johnson          1    3        10.25    Cal State Fullerton University       inactive
2004  D'Rays     Jeffrey Niemann       1    1         5.79    Rice University    
2001  D'backs    Jason Bulger          1    0         6.08    Valdosta State University    
2000  Dodgers    Ben Diggins           0    4         8.63    University of Arizona                inactive
2002  Pirates    Bryan Bullington      0    3         5.89    Ball State University    
2002  Braves     Dan Meyer             0    2         7.85    James Madison University    
2004  Blue Jays  David Purcey          0    1        11.05    University of Oklahoma    
2004  Mets       Philip Humber         0    0         6.00    Rice University    
2004  Yankees    Jeffrey Marquez                              Sacramento City College              AAA
2004  Cardinals  Christopher Lambert                          Boston College                       AAA
2004  White Sox  Tyler Lumsden                                Clemson University                   AAA
2001  Tigers     Kenny Baugh                                  Rice University                      AAA
2004  Dodgers    Justin Orenduff                              Virginia Commonwealth University     AAA
2002  Athletics  Ben Fritz                                    Fresno State University              AA
2003  Tigers     Kyle Sleeth                                  Wake Forest University               AA
2004  Orioles    Wade Townsend                                Rice University                      AA
2000  Astros     Robert Stiehl                                El Camino College                    AA
2004  Rangers    Thomas Diamond                               University of New Orleans            AA
2001  Cardinals  Justin Pope                                  University of Central Florida        AA
2000  Orioles    Beau Hale                                    University of Texas                  AA
2004  Twins      Matthew Fox                                  University of Central Florida        A
2004  Royals     Matthew Campbell                             University of South Carolina-Aiken   A
2003  Athletics  Bradley Sullivan                             University of Houston                A
2000  Rangers    Chad Hawkins                                 Baylor University                    inactive
2000  Cardinals  Blake Williams                               Southwest Texas State University     inactive
2001  Orioles    Chris Smith                                  Cumberland University                inactive
2001  Yankees    Jon Skaggs                                   Rice University                      inactive
2001  Nationals  Josh Karp                                    UCLA                                 inactive
2001  WhiteSox   Wyatt Allen                                  University of Tennessee              inactive
2002  Cubs       Luke Hagerty                                 Ball State University                inactive
2002  Astros     Derick Grigsby                               Northeast Texas Community College    inactive
2002  Cubs       Matthew Clanton                              Orange Coast College                 inactive
2002  Athletics  Stephen Obenchain                            University of Evansville             inactive
2002  Reds       Mark Schramek                                University of Texas                  inactive
2000  Twins      Aaron Heilman                                University of Notre Dame             No sign

These guys have gone 474-459 as major leaguers. They also have 250 saves (the group includes two current major league closers.)

Obviously, there was once a time when we would have anointed Mark Prior as the best of this bunch. Those days are gone, and it's much too premature to make those kinds of judgements anyway. Verlander? Hamels? Weaver? Greinke? Who the hell knows. You're obviously more likely to find someone who will at least reach the majors if you take a college pitcher, because you can at least be sure that his arm won't fall off before he turns 21.

That was way too much like work, by the way. So let's take a quick peek at the Blue Jays leader boards:

Roy Halladay is by far the greatest high schooler drafted by the Blue Jays, and he's third on the all-time win list. High school pitchers hold down seven of the top ten spots, in fact. However, the top righty and the top lefty - Dave Stieb and Jimmy Key - were both college pitchers (neither was taken in the first round). Todd Stottlemyre is the other college pitcher in the Top 10 for wins (selected in the first round of the June secondary draft.)

A college pitcher has the most saves - Tom Henke. He's followed by a high schooler (Ward), another college pitcher (Koch), another high schooler (Escobar) and the college pitcher who currently has the job (Ryan). Koch was the only first rounder in that group.

Pat Gillick used nine first round picks on pitchers. As a rule, Giliick's first round picks were beneath abysmal - six of the first ten guys he took in the first round never even played a game in the majors. Two of the picks he used on pitchers were worthy - John Cerutti (college) and Chris Carpenter (high school).

And for all you Casey Janssen fans, Chris Carpenter proves that there is indeed life after a torn labrum (although now he needs to prove that there's life after a torn labrum and Tommy John surgery.)

Gillick's other first round pitchers were Matt Williams (college), Earl Sanders (college), Alex Sanchez (college), Steve Karsay (high school), Jeff Ware (college), Mark Lukasiewicz (college), and Jeremy Lee (high school). Who the hell was scouting the colleges for the Blue Jays back in those days? I guess Stieb, Key, and Timlin worked out OK.

Gord Ash, of course, drafted three pitchers in the first round - Halladay and McGowan out of high school and Billy Koch out of college.

Prior to last summer, Ricciardi had used three first round picks on pitchers, all out of college: Purcey, Jackson, and Romero. They drafted two more college pitchers in the first round last summer, although it's hard for me to take seriously the notion that the fifth guy taken by the team, with the 56th pick of the draft (Magnuson), is really a first round pick. What's up with that, anyway?

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