The 2007 season was disappointing for the A's, they entered the season expecting to contend but injuries to key players caused them to fall short of expectations. Rich Harden, Eric Chavez, Chad Gaudin, Bobby Crosby, Houston Street and Travis Buck each spent time in sick bay, many with significant injuries. The A's are now in rebuilding mode and should not be a challenger in the 2008 AL West.
Billy Beane could have put 2007 down to bad luck and set about tweaking the roster to compete again in 2008. But Beane decided that his roster couldn't compete and set about rebuilding with a view to 2009 or 2010. The A's had eight straight winning seasons from 1999 through 2006 but were never good enough, or lucky enough, to get to the world series. Some of the injuries sustained by the A's were very serious, bad enough that Beane had doubts that some of his players would be back to full strength in 2008. Eric Chavez had back and labrum surgeries on both shoulders; Rich Harden is continually injured; Bobby Crosby has had a couple of seasons with time on the DL; Chad Gaudin had hip surgery after the season; and Houston Street had a problem with his elbow during 2007. Each of these players is a significant contributor to the team and each has a question mark over their level of contribution in 2008. Beane judged that the combination of an above average but not great team, a tough competitor in the Anaheim Angels, and this injury potential was too much risk to take on. It was a bold move on Beane's part to trade Haren and Swisher, it would have been easy to put the effort into competing in 2008 and then blame injuries if they felt short but Beane went for the big challenge and time will tell if he made the right moves. It has been said that a .500 record is the worst place to be, you don't win anything, your draft position is middling, and you might not make the tough decisions that need to be made about your roster. Beane didn't sit on a .500 team he decided to break it up.
Meanwhile Beane had moved Jason Kendall and Milton Bradley before the trading deadline last season, and the A's did not bring back Mike Piazza or Shannon Stewart, but the big moves were the trades of Dan Haren and Nick Swisher. Haren brought back seven players including four of Arizona's top ten prospects: OF Carlos Gonzalez (#1 per BA), OF Aaron Cunningham (#7), P Dana Eveland, P Brett Anderson (#3), 1B Chris Carter (#8) and P Greg Smith (#13). Swisher brought back P Gio Gonzalez, CF Ryan Sweeney and P Faustino De Los Santos. Many of these prospects are not major league ready, Eveland and Sweeney are battling for major league jobs and the two Gonzalez's are longer-shots to make the team to start the season. Beane hopes these prospects will be ready for 2009 but 2010 is more likely to be the year when Oakland expect to be back over .500. Another factor in Beane's decision making was the relative weakness of the A's own farm system, with Barton, Suzuki and Buck making the majors in 2007 the farm was getting thin.
Getting back to Beane's trading, as Beane looked at his roster over the winter these were his major tradable assets:
Pitcher Dan Haren
Pitcher Joe Blanton
Pitcher Rich Harden
Closer Houston Street
Shortstop Bobby Crosby
Third Baseman Eric Chavez
Outfielder Nick Swisher
Outfielder Travis Buck
Of these eight players Harden, Crosby and Chavez had serious injury issues in 2007 and their value is reduced until they can prove their fitness; Street also had an elbow injury in 2007, which incidentally was treated in Toronto, and his value is not at its peak until he can prove he is passed it. Buck is one of the players for the future so that left Beane with three prime tradeable assets remaining, Haren, Swisher, and Blanton. Beane traded two of the three and could trade Blanton before too long.
Offense
Even with the trades the A's offense could be above average in 2008, again depending on how much injuries impact playing time. The lineup has many younger players with just two over 30's.
Kurt Suzuki is a 24 year old catcher who had a 99 OPS+ in 213 AB's in 2007. Suzuki might not hit that well in 2008 but his hitting should be an improvement over Jason Kendall.
Daric Barton, the new firstbaseman, is another young, 22 year old, hitter with a big stick. Barton was formerly the A's #1 prospect and the only concern is that he is a doubles hitter, like Lyle Overbay, and has not yet developed home run power. Barton will take a walk and should be one of the A's leaders in OBP.
Mark Ellis is a steady performer at second base and slugged .441 last season, good for a second sacker. Ellis is also a premium defender, one of the best in the league.
Bobby Crosby's OPS+ in his four major league seasons has been 93; 111; 67 and 68. Crosby's high for at-bats in the last three seasons is 358. It might be time to lower our expectations for Crosby, the injuries may have taken a toll and he may never reach the heights expected of him back in 2003.
Eric Chavez is recovering from three off-season surgeries. He has had a slow start to spring training and his participation in the A's asian adventure is uncertain. From 2000 through 2004 Chavez averaged a 126 OPS+. Since then Chavez OPS+ is 105. Which Chavez will show up this season? Billy Beane is probably wondering if he should have traded Chavez a couple of years ago.
In the outfield re-tread Emil Brown has moved over to the A's to redeem himself from his 2007 collapse. Beane is hoping that Brown will return to form and join players like Milton Bradley and Shannon Stewart who have patrolled the outfield with some success in recent years. Brown's power dropped last season and his slugging was .347, bad for an outfielder.
Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, and Carlos Gonzalez are battling for the centrefield job. Denorfia, formerly a top prospect of the Reds, missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery but is the early favourite for the job. sweeney, who came over from the White Sox is an interesting player, he hits well in the minor leagues but struggles in the major leagues. Scouts say Sweeney changes his swing against live major league pitching. If Sweeney can play like he is capable of he could win the job but he hasn't shown that yet. Gonzalez would have to hit very well to make the team, he is more likely headed for AAA.
Travis Buck, 24 years old, had an excellent debut season in 2007 and has a job assured in 2008.
Jack Cust may not be as good as 2007, his breakout year, but he should now have the experience and the belief to come close to repeating last season.
Bench
Dan Johnson's batting average was only .226 last season but he walked 72 times in 416 at-bats and he added 39 extra base hits. As a result Johnson had a .767 OPS and a 108 OPS+. Johnson is a good DH candidate to either back-up Cust or replace Cust if he turns out to be a flash in the pan.
Jack Hannahan is a AAA veteran who will back-up Eric Chavez.
Donnie Murphy will take Marco Scutaro's role as infield back-up.
Mark Sweeney will be the primary pinch-hitter.
With most of the offense returning from 2007 and with several young players improving the A's offense could be average to above-average in 2008. The pitching should be the weak link in 2008.
Pitching
Dan Haren was the undoubted #1 pitcher for the A's and his departure creates a big void. Rich Harden could fill that #1 pitcher void but he has never been able to stay healthy. Harden made four starts last season and has pitched only 71 innings over the past two years. Joe Blanton will become the new #1 pitcher and while he is good he does not have the stuff or stats of Haren. Blanton pitched 230 innings in 2007 with a very nice 3.95 ERA.
Chad Gaudin is another pitcher working his way back from injury. Gaudin was previously in the Jays system and they could use him now. Gaudin had a fabulous first half of 2007 but faded in the second half. His hip injury could be the cause of his drop-off and the A's hope he will return as the "first half Gaudin". Justin Duchscherer is also coming back from injury and he is making the conversion from reliever to starter. Duchscherer has done a good job as the long reliever out of the A's pen and that experience should help him as he converts to the #4 starter job. The fifth starter job is up for grabs between Dana Eveland, Lenny DiNardo, Dallas Braden, Dan Meyer and newly arrived Gio Gonzalez. Gonzlaez has the most talent but the A's may want to get hime some time in AAA before calling him up. Eveland has been pitching well in the spring and has been compared to Ted Lilly. Eveland looks like the front runner for the #5 slot. The pitcher who finishes second in this contest should get a shot once Harden gets injured again.
Houston Street is one of the best closers in the game and returns for 2008. With him in the bullpen will be un-retired Keith Foulke who returns after some time away from the game to rediscover his love of baseball. Alan Embree retruns after a good 2007 including some time as closer in Street's absence. Kiko Calero also returns after a poor 2008 and some of the losers in the fifth starter battle will also look for a bullpen spot. As with most teams the bullpen pitchers come with issues and questions and the A's are no exception.
Summary
The A's have no real margin to cover for injuries and while they are capable of a .500 record the more realistic call is for a 73-89 season. Billy Beane has been rightfully praised for the job he has done as Oakland's general manager but in sports you are as good as your latest deal so this rebuilding effort will either confirm or refute his reputation.
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