Playing in New York, or in the New York minor league system, puts a different spin on a player's career right from the outset. It's almost impossible to arrive on the scene "quietly" -- though Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera have done as fair an imitation of that as anyone recently. Uusally it's all magazine covers and impossibly early Hall of Fame projections (are you listening, Joba Chamberlain and Philip Hughes?) ...
And besides, the Yankees are better known for huge splashy freeagent signings and player acquisitions (heads up, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu). Hey, Andy Pettitte has even managed to fill both of those roles -- young farm system product and returning veteran hero -- in his career, before and after the train stop in Houston.
So what does all this have to do with previewing the 2008 season for the Yankees? Well, fans tend to split pretty black-and-white into "I love the Yankees" and "I hate the Yankees" (with very little in between), so let's change the face of the Great American Baseball Franchise & Dynasty-Maker and take a look at what we can learn about the team from the greatness of Sean Forman's BaseballReference.com ...
Most fans of opposing teams (including many here on Da Box) can't objectively view the Yankee roster because the pinstripes get in their eyes -- everyone, from Derek Jeter to Mariano Rivera is somehow "overrated.' On the other hand, most Yankee fans (including me, for the most part) probably overrate the Bombers, thinking solid stars like Hidek Matsui and Pettitte should already be drafting their Cooperstown induction speeches.
So let's take the pinstripes out of the equation entirely as we preview the upcoming edition of the Yankees; using Forman's "Most Similar by Age" comparison. Below you'll find a projected 25-man roster for the upcoming season and next to that an "alternative" roster showing who the historically "Most Similar" player to that projected roster member has been -- through last season:
| Projected Starting Lineup C Jorge Posada 1B Jason Giambi 2B Robinson Cano SS Derek Jeter 3B Alex Rodriguez LF Johnny Damon CF Melky Cabrera RF Bobby Abreu DH Hideki Matsui Projected Bench Projected Rotation Projected Bullpen |
Alternative Starting Lineup (35) Carlton Fisk (36) Jim Edmonds (24) Joe Mauer (33) Roberto Alomar (31) Ken Griffey Jr. (33) Cesar Cedeno (22) Sixto Lezcano (33) Bernie Williams (33) Kevin Millar Alternative Bench Alternative Rotation Alternative Bullpen |
Obviously, the "Most Similar" list relies entirely on offensive numbers, as Jim Edmonds is not a first baseman, Joe Mauer is no second baseman and Ken Griffey Jr. never spent an inning at third base. (Though you have to admit, with Robbie Alomar at short no less, that would be a fun infield to watch!)
And yes, there are some current and recent Yankees on that list, as Bobby Abreu's Most Similar is none other than Bernie Williams, while Andy Pettitte's current Most Similar is his current (slightly older) teammate, Mike Mussina. There are four players on the "alternative" roster who are in, or should legitimately expect to get in to the Hall of Fame when eligible -- Fisk, Alomar, Griffey and Hoffman. And, maybe a fifth -- though probably not -- in Mussina.
The current Yankee roster has three such locks -- Jeter, A-Rod and Rivera -- with a bunch more "maybe if things break right " candidates like Matsui, Posada, Pettitte and. again, Mussina -- though none seem particularly likely at this point.
The number in parentheses before the name of each "alternative" player is the age of the Yankee last season that was used for the "Most Similar by Age" comparison. This is a number that should probably worry Yankee fans, as it shows that the current crop of Bombers has no less than 14 players on its roster who are at least 30, five of whom are at least 35. But for the first time in recent memory, the Yanks have nobody entering the season already on the north side of age 40. So maybe they are getting "younger"?
Speaking of getting younger, there are five spots on the projected Yankee roster for 2008 that don't have a "Most Similar" comparison because the players in those roster spots have not yet played enough big league ball to have a statistically sound comparison per Forman's metric. And the youth brigade on the Yankee roster -- including Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Karstens and Phil Hughes on the pitching staff (and less so, Shelley Duncan on the bench) could literally be the difference between a Bronx October and an early trip home after the regular season for this team.
So ... how can we project a 2008 performance for this team? We'll try to do so by answering the question, "what did those (alternative) most-similar players do in their next season?" It's not terribly pretty, Yankee fans ... cover your eyes and read on (wait, that doesn't really work, does it?) ... comments in italics after each player's name address how such a "Most Similar" performance in 2008 might be viewed in Yankee circles ...
Starting Lineup
Bench
The bench needs more from all of the guys listed above than those listed below -- particularly given the inability of Tatis and Branson to even make a major league roster! If Wilson Betemit is Kelly Johnson, that's a good thing for Yankee fans everywhere.
Rotation
It's just impossible to tell from the comparisons below what we might expect from the 2008 Yankee rotation -- too much depends on the youngsters Hughes and Kennedy. The Most-Similars for Wang and Mussina are TOO old-school to provide meaningful information for projections, while Pettitte's most comparable, again, is ... Mussina. After all the trouble, the Yankees would probably take 13-8 from Andy right now.
Bullpen
Very hit-or-miss. Hoffman and Mesa combined for 88 saves in their followup most-comparable seasons to Rivera and Hawkins, but obviously that won't happen in one single Bronx season. Then we have four guys who have no comparables, due to youth or, in Carrasco's case, a return to the minor leagues. Don't be a bit surprised if the most important members of the Yankee staff in 2008 are Chamberlain and Karstens.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20080322165738288