Keith Law is well known to Batters Box. Keith was employed by the Blue Jays from 2002 through 2006 and in 2003 dropped into Da Box for an interview. Keith now provides a scouting perspective at ESPN.com where his weekly chats have become a favourite of mine because of Keith's honesty; the large number of questions he answers; and his willingness to answer questions on two of his other passions, books and food. At ESPN Keith also breaks down trades and publishes prospect reports such as the top 5 prospects by organization and the overall top 100 prospects in baseball. Keith agreed to an e-mail interview with Batters Box, reproduced below. Batters Box thanks Keith for the generous allocation of his time to this interview.
1. Moneyball suggested that statistical analysis could play a big part in the annual draft. As you prepare your draft analysis for ESPN and Scouts Inc. how relevant do you think is the statistical analysis of potential draftees?
KL - I think you'd be remiss to ignore it entirely, but at the same time, its value has been wildly overstated. College stats, even properly translated, have less predictive value than A-ball stats, and the strength of schedule problems are very difficult to overcome. It's not just the quality of the opponent - a crappy school can have a single great pitcher, for example. So I'll check the stats, and if a player's stats or specific indicators are very bad, that's a warning sign, but great college stats are no guarantee of greatness.
2. As you evaluate AAA or AA players it appears that today you value scouting more than stats, agree?
KL - It's what I'm paid to do. ESPN doesn't need another statistical analyst. I absolutely look at stats and I certainly know my way around analyzing them, but I want to give the readers a more complete story, whether it's an explanation of why I think the stats will hold up or an argument why they won't.
3. You now work for ESPN Scouts Inc. Most teams have at least five or six scouts covering the minor leagues, other than you, how does Scouts Inc. get the coverage required to scout the minor leagues?
KL - I employed some freelance scouts last year, but this year I'll be solo. Because my focus is just on top prospects, I'll see most of the relevant guys myself by traveling during the year, seeing a lot during spring training, hitting the Futures Game, and doing another week in the AFL. It is imperfect, but I've found I can see at least 70% of the guys I need to see if I plan well.
4. For the annual draft each team puts a lot of effort into scouting potential first rounders, for good reason, but often it's the success of the later picks that can make a draft really successful. When you look at a teams draft success in later rounds, say after the third round, how much of it is luck versus good scouting?
KL - Depends. When a team finds a star in later rounds - Albert Pujols is the classic example - that's luck. If the Cardinals had an inkling that he was Joe Freaking Dimaggio, do you really think they would have played the board and let him slide to the 11th round? It doesn't work that way. But finding role players, middle relievers, bench guys, and even fringe regulars in later rounds is more about good scouting than luck. I also think that good scouting comes more into play with high school, JC, and small-college kids. You find Ian Kinsler out of a Big 12 school in the 17th round ... well, let's be honest, you didn't find him. Scouts from the other 29 teams saw him too, several times. He just came out of nowhere. But you find Roy Oswalt in a Mississippi JC or Chad Gaudin in a Louisiana high school - that's good scouting. Not just good evaluation, but good work covering the area and finding the guys to turn in so that in the umpteenth round, you can raise your hand in that draft room and say, "I've got a guy."
5. Are you aware of teams evaluating their amateur scouts by looking back at their evaluations say from five years ago?
KL - I am not aware of it, but I would guess some teams do it. It was a non-issue in Toronto after Ricciardi let most of the amateur scouts go in 2002-03.
6. Do you think there are significant differences between teams in their ability to develop minor league players for the big leagues?
KL - Absolutely. Some is coaching. A lot is planning - I do not understand why some teams refuse to use player plans for at least their top prospects. I know that Toronto did not use them while I was there, because the director of player development did not wish to do so. (A player development plan is a written document that should, at the least, identify areas in which the player needs work, set measurable goals for progress in those areas, and lay out a plan for the player and his coaches to achieve those goals.)
7. You have seen David Purcey pitch several times and you still question his control. Is it wishful thinking to assume a pitcher can improve his control in his mid-20's?
KL - Not at all. Pitchers improve their control all the time. In Purcey's case, however, I have not seen improved control, and I don't know of any argument why we should expect him to be one of those guys, but if you're Toronto, you hold on to him and work with him (in theory) and hope that he does improve.
8. Were you surprised with the Jays switch in approach in 2007 to pick so many high-school players?
KL - Sort of, at least in the sense that I never expected Ricciardi to relent. I'm sure the breakout success of Travis Snider - their first-rounder in 2006 and a HS product - made it easier.
9. What is your opinion of the Jays 2007 draft?
KL - Middle of the road. Wasn't wowed by either of their first picks, especially not Arencibia, but they had so many extra picks that they added some bulk value. I like Cecil a lot as a LH reliever who can get righties out, and I think Magnusson's a big-time sleeper. Also, getting Eric Eiland where they did for so little coin was a potential steal; he really should have gone to college, and getting him was a minor coup and a nice bit by Toronto of remembering how promising he looked ten months earlier.
10. Many of the Jays 2007 high school picks got off to slow starts, many experts say not to worry. When does a high school player need to show on field performance?
KL - I couldn't put a specific deadline on it. I'm not a big fan of two-year short-season players, at least not when we're talking about high draft picks. If you have to return to short-season ball in your second pro season - meaning you couldn't break camp with the low-A club - your odds of having a big-league career are diminished. That's more true of hitters than of pitchers, of course.
11. Travis Snider is the Jays top prospect but struck out quite a bit in 2007, are you concerned about this?
KL - Not at all. I see a good hitting plan and good plate coverage.
12. The Jays top four catching prospects all have their detractors. Robinzon Diaz is a hacker and has questionable receiving skills; Curtis Thigpen doesn't stand out in any skill; Brian Jeroloman has a weak bat; and JP Arencibia also has questions regarding his catching. Which of these players do you project to be major leaguers?
KL - Jeroloman could spend ten years in the majors as a once-a-week backup, like a Tom Prince, and you old-timers who remember Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense know that the less he hits, the more his defense will be praised. Arencibia will play in the big leagues as well, but I don't think he's an everyday player back there. I question his defense and also his ability to hit for average.
13. How surprised were you with the success of Jesse Litsch in 2007 and what do you think of his future?
KL - I had pegged him back in '06 as a guy to watch, but the realistic outlook is that he's a high-quality fifth starter, maybe a #4 if everything goes his way. He relied heavily on the defense last year, and I don't see any pitch from him that's going to miss bats on a regular basis.
14. Ryan Patterson looked to have a bright future in 2006 but he has yet to dominate at the AA level. What are your expectations for him?
KL - 4th/5th outfielder. Not enough bat there.
15. You said in an ESPN chat, and on your top 100 prospect list, that Brett Cecil might end up as a closer or power reliever. Is that due to his having just two solid pitches? I assume you would agree that if he can be successful as a starter the Jays would be best to leave him in the rotation?
KL - I saw a three-pitch mix from him, with a solid-average curve to go with the fastball/slider, and I'm told he has a promising changeup. I think the Jays should work him as a starter this year on short pitch counts, just so he gets some reps with his secondary stuff (having to go through opposing lineups twice per game) and builds arm strength.
16. Your top 5 Blue Jay prospects includes Trystan Magnuson, why are you so high on him, seeing as he was drafted as a senior and seen as a "cheap pick" by the Jays?
KL - Magnusson was a fifth-year senior who was a classic "pop-up" guy - everyone was rushing in to see him in May because he was throwing so well. As a fifth-year senior, he would have been a free agent when Louisville's season ended, but because they made the NCAA regionals, he ended up in the draft, and it's a good thing for Toronto, because I know several teams that would have outbid them for Magnusson, including one team that was willing to go to seven figures. He was probably a borderline first-rounder, and if he's fully healthy this year (which he supposedly is), he could move very quickly.
Keith's comments about the draft and the relevance of college stats were interesting. For those who have read Moneyball, specifically the chapter about how Paul DePodesta found players through statistical analysis, that approach to the draft appears to be dead. Keith's comments regarding teams finding talent in the draft were also illuminating, a scout can find talent in an unexpected place and make a draft better for his team.
Keith suggests that he would like to see the Jays 2007 high school draftees make it to Lansing to start this season, that will be one of the most interesting things to watch at minor league spring training next month. Also Trystan Magnuson could move quickly if the scouting reports are to be believed.
Intersting reading and again a thank you to Keith Law.
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