I took an extensive look at sixth starters the other day. The point of the exercise was simply to show that five starting pitchers are never, ever enough.
I defined the Top 5 starters on each as the five pitchers who made the most starts. Simple enough. But KingRyan observed, sensibly enough, that the Arizona Diamondbacks didn't exactly regard Randy Johnson as one of their extra starters.
Which implies that it would be profitable to juggle the numbers once again. But instead of simply taking the five guys who made the most starts and calling them the Top 5, we would begin with the five starters each team trhought of as their starting rotation as the season began. We'll call them the Original 5. And then we would really see how the extra pitchers contributed. (We'll call them the Replacements - and hey! A shout-out to Paul Westerberg! When you're forced to call on the Replacements, you may have to Let the Bad Times Roll!)
Just shuffling the numbers in the spreadsheet is simple enough, but a few Command Decisions were required because of pitchers who were injured as the season began. These guys basically fall into two camps:
a) pitchers who weren't expected to return until after the All-Star Break. Here we're thinking of Pedro Martinez, Kenny Rogers, and Mark Mulder. They are not considered part of the Opening Day rotation.
b) pitchers who were expected to return before the end of April. This group includes Chien-Ming Wang, Randy Johnson, Bartolo Colon, Cliff Lee, and Esteban Loaiza. They are considered part of the Opening Day rotation. The men keeping their seat warm are not. And that group includes Fausto Carmona and Chad Gaudin, who would end up spending the entire season in their team's rotations. But here, they line up among The Replacements. The specifics of those cases are:
Arizona: Edgar Gonzalez replaced Johnson in the rotation to start the season, and went into the bullpen when the Big Ugly one was activated.
Cleveland: Fausto Carmona made the opening day roster filling in for Lee. He stayed in the rotation when Lee came back, because Jake Westbrook went on the DL at the same time. By the time Westbrook came back, in late June, Carmona had an 8-2 record and it was Jeremy Sowers (1-6) who was sent to the minors.
Oakland: Esteban Loaiza was only supposed to miss one, maybe two starts - as it happened, he didn't return until August. Gaudin was being described as an emergency starter when he replaced him in April.
New York: Darrel Rasner replaced Wang to open the season, and then stuck around replacing Pavano when Wang came back until a line drive off his pitching hand ended his season in early May.
Los Angeles: Joe Saunders opened the season filling in for Bartolo Colon. He went to the minors when Colon returned in April.
So which Original 5 stood up best through the next six months. (Drum roll, if you please...)
The Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox? Who went 72-90? It sure did them a lot of good.
The White Sox weren't the only team whose Original 5 starters ended being their Top 5 starters. Others were the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Detroit Tigers.
Many teams made it through the year with four of the Originals making the Top 5: Arizona, Cubs, Angels, Mets, San Diego, Cincinnati, Colorado, San Francisco, Cleveland, Atlanta, St.Louis, Texas, Dodgers, and Kansas City.
Teams with three Original 5 starters endig up in their Top 5 were: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Florida, Yankees, Baltimore, Oakland, and Washington.
The Blue Jays were the only team who saw only two of their Original 5 end up among their Top 5. And it worked out pretty well for them.
So let's first go around the majors and identify the Opening Day rotation. I think this is also the actual order in which they appeared, as well the number of starts they ended up making:
Chicago White Sox (150) - Contreras 30, Garland 32, Buehrle 30, Vazquez 32, Danks 26
Seattle (141) - Hernandez 30, Washburn 32, Batista 32, Weaver 27, Ramirez 20
Boston (140) - Schilling 24, Beckett 30, Matsuzaka 32, Wakefield 31, Tavarez 23
Arizona (137) - Webb 34, Hernandez 33, Davis 33, Owings 27, Johnson 10
Milwaukee (137) - Sheets 24, Capuano 25, Suppan 34, Bush 31, Vargas 23
Chicago Cubs (136) - Zambrano 34, Lilly 34, Marquis 33, Hill 32, Miller 3
LA Angels (135) - Lackey 33, Escobar 30, Santana 26, Weaver 28, Colon 18
NY Mets (132) - Glavine 34, Hernandez 24, Maine 32, Perez 29, Pelfrey 13
Houston (131) - Oswalt 32, Jennings 18, Williams 31, Rodriguez 31, Sampson 19
San Diego (129) - Peavy 34, Young 30, Hensley 9, Maddux 34, Wells 22
Pittsburgh (127) - Duke 19, Snell 32, Gorzelanny 32, Maholm 29, Armas 15
Cincinnati (125) - Harang 34, Arroyo 34, Belisle 30, Lohse 21, Milton 6
Detroit (122) - Bonderman 28, Robertson 30, Verlander 32, Maroth 13, Durbin 19
Colorado (121) - Cook 25, Francis 34, Lopez 14, Hirsh 19, Fogg 29
San Francisco (120) - Zito 33, Cain 32, Morris 21, Lowry 26, Ortiz 8
Cleveland (119) - Sabathia 34, Westbrook 25, Byrd 31, Sowers 13, Lee 16
Atlanta (118) - Smoltz 32, Hudson 34, James 30, Redman 5, Davies 17
Tampa Bay (116) - Kazmir 34, Seo 10, Shields 31, Fossum 10, Jackson 31
Minnesota (113) - Santana 33, Silva 33, Bonser 30, Ortiz 10, Ponson 7
St.Louis (109) - Carpenter 1, Wells 26, Looper 30, Wainwright 32, Reyes 20
Philadelphia (105) - Garcia 11, Hamels 28, Eaton 30, Moyer 33, Myers 3
Florida (105) - Willis 35, Olsen 33, Sanchez 6, Mitre 27, Nolasco 4
New York (105) - Pavano 2, Pettite 34, Mussina 27, Igawa 12, Wang 30
Texas (104) - Millwood 31, Padilla 23, McCarthy 22, Tejeda 19, Wright 9
Los Angeles (104) - Lowe 32, Wolf 18, Schmidt 6, Penny 33, Tomko 15
Kansas City (100) - Meche 34, Perez 26, Greinke 14, de la Rosa 23, Duckworth 3
Baltimore (96) - Bedard 28, Cabrera 34, Wright 3, Loewen 6, Trachsel 25
Oakland (90) - Haren 34, Harden 4, Blanton 34, Kennedy 16, Loaiza 2
Toronto (86) - Halladay 31, Burnett 25, Chacin 5, Ohka 10, Towers 15
Washington (81) - Patterson 7, Hill 16, Chico 31, Bergmann 21, Williams 6
So here are the fellows who filled the holes. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Replacements!
Washington 81 - Bacsik 20, Redding 15, Simontacchi 13, Hanrahan 11, Bowie 8, Lannan 6, Speigner 6, Traber 2
Toronto 76 - McGowan 27, Marcum 25, Litsch 20, Zambrano 2, Taubenheim 1, Banks 1
Oakland 72 - Gaudin 34, DiNardo 20, Braden 14, Meyer 3, Lewis 1
Baltimore 66 - Guthrie 26, Burres 17, Olson 6, Leicester 5, Liz 4, Santos 3, Zamrano 2, Birkins 2
Kansas City 62 - Bannister 27, Davies 11, Elarton 9, Nunez 6, Buckner 5, Thomson 2, Hochevar 1, Hudson 1
LA Dodgers 58 - Billingsley 20, Hendrickson 15, Wells 7, Kuo 6, Stults 5, Loaiza 5
Texas 58 - Loe 23, Gabbard 8, Rheinecker 7, Volquez 6, Wood 4, Mendoza 3, Murray 2, Koronka 2, Eyre 2, Galarraga 1
NY Yankees 57 - Clemens 17, Hughes 13, Rasner 6, Clippard 6, DeSalvo 6, Kennedy 3, Karstens 3, Wright 2, Henn 1
Philadelphia 57 - Kendrick 20, Lieber 12, Lohse 11, Durbin 10, Ennis 1, Castro 1, Segovia 1, Happ 1
Florida 57 - Kim 19, VandenHurk 17, Obermuller 7, Barone 6, Seddon 4, Johnson 4
St. Louis 53 - Thompson 17, Pineiro 11, Wellemeyer 11, Maroth 7, Mulder 3, Keisler 3, Percival 1
Minnesota 49 - Baker 23, Garza 15, Slowey 11
Tampa Bay 46 - Sonnanstine 22, Hammel 14, Howell 10
Atlanta 44 - Carlyle 20, Reyes 10, Cormier 9, Lerew 3, Bennett 2
Cleveland 43 - Carmona 32, Laffey 9, Stanford 2
Colorado 42 - Jiminez 15, Morales 8, Buchholz 8, Dessens 5, Redman 3, Kim 1, Bautista 1, Harikkala 1
San Francisco 42 - Lincecum 24, Correia 8, Mirsch 4, Sanchez 4, Blackley 2
Detroit 40 - Miller 13, Rogers 11, Jurrjens 7, Tata 3, Vasquez 3, Bazardo 2, Miner 1
Cincinnati 37 - Livingston 10, Bailey 9, Dumatrait 6, Shearn 6, Ramirez 3, Saarloos 3
Pittsburgh 35 - Morris 11, Van Benschoten 9, Youman 8, Chacon 4, Bullington 3
San Diego 34 - Germano 23, Tomko 4, Cassel 4, Stauffer 2, Ledezma 1
Houston 31 - Albers 18, Backe 5, Paulino 3, Gutierrez 3, Patton 2
NY Mets 30 - Sosa 14, Lawrence 6, Martinez 5, Vargas 2, Park 1, Williams 1, Humber 1
LA Angels 27 - Saunders 18, Moseley 8, Carrasco 1
Chicago Cubs 26 - Marshall 19, Trachsel 4, Guzman 3
Milwaukee 25 - Gallardo 17, Villanueva 6, Parra 2
Arizona 25 - Gonzalez 12, Petit 10, Kim 2, Eveland 1
Boston 22 - Lester 11, Gabbard 7, Buchholz 3, Hansack 1
Seattle 21 - Baek 12, Feirabend 9
Chicago White Sox 12 - Floyd 10, Broadway 1, Masset 1
And here are the Data Tables! First for the Replacements, sorted simply by their collective ERA:
GS W L IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA IP/GS
MIL 25 11 6 145 134 54 58 12 57 124 7.70 1.32 3.35 5.80
CLE 43 24 11 277 265 105 111 19 74 172 5.59 1.22 3.41 6.44
BOS 22 10 2 125.2 108 56 60 15 58 98 7.02 1.32 4.01 5.71
MIN 49 18 17 282.1 326 132 148 36 70 206 6.57 1.40 4.21 5.76
TOR 76 30 24 439 420 206 221 58 149 300 6.15 1.30 4.22 5.78
LAA 27 9 7 151.1 179 73 78 12 50 98 5.83 1.51 4.34 5.60
CWS 12 3 5 69 77 34 37 12 20 55 7.17 1.41 4.43 5.75
CHI 26 8 11 132.2 147 67 74 17 45 88 5.97 1.45 4.55 5.10
NYY 57 18 18 287.1 292 151 166 38 122 189 5.92 1.44 4.73 5.04
COL 42 10 11 206.2 213 113 124 24 77 150 6.53 1.40 4.92 4.92
DET 40 13 13 200.1 213 114 123 27 93 129 5.80 1.53 5.12 5.01
LAD 58 18 24 303 334 174 182 42 118 236 7.01 1.49 5.17 5.22
STL 53 15 16 263 313 152 172 47 90 135 4.62 1.53 5.20 4.96
KCR 62 21 27 323.1 352 193 205 49 120 169 4.70 1.46 5.37 5.22
HOU 31 8 16 164.1 180 99 106 27 60 96 5.26 1.46 5.42 5.30
OAK 72 19 32 374.2 426 227 259 43 175 246 5.91 1.60 5.45 5.20
ARI 25 6 9 118 135 72 76 24 40 77 5.87 1.48 5.49 4.72
TEX 58 13 19 303.2 347 187 208 42 143 186 5.51 1.61 5.54 5.24
WAS 81 25 32 415 496 256 268 70 173 223 4.84 1.61 5.55 5.12
BAL 66 15 24 346.1 386 214 221 47 148 245 6.37 1.54 5.56 5.25
ATL 44 13 18 219.1 246 144 155 51 88 146 5.99 1.52 5.91 4.98
NYM 30 11 12 159 192 105 110 21 59 106 6.00 1.58 5.94 5.30
TAM 46 9 21 249 299 174 178 36 74 192 6.94 1.50 6.29 5.41
FLA 57 14 22 276 333 196 217 47 155 233 7.60 1.77 6.39 4.84
CIN 37 10 13 174 223 132 137 31 72 91 4.71 1.70 6.83 4.70
PGH 35 6 20 171 214 132 137 15 84 92 4.84 1.74 6.95 4.89
SEA 21 5 9 108 146 85 88 15 32 67 5.58 1.65 7.08 5.14
SFG 42 10 11 134 223 112 117 24 94 225 15.11 2.37 7.52 3.19
PHA 57 21 16 197.1 359 165 174 39 101 188 8.57 2.33 7.53 3.46
SDP 34 10 13 93.2 195 106 110 24 55 112 10.76 2.67 10.19 2.75
GS W L IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA IP/GS Drop
Original 5 MIL 137 49 41 788 886 418 442 99 250 573 6.54 1.44 4.77 5.75
Replacements MIL 25 11 6 145 134 54 58 12 57 124 7.70 1.32 3.35 5.80 -1.42
Brewers MIL 162 60 47 933 1020 472 500 111 307 697 6.72 1.42 4.55 5.76
Original 5 CLE 119 46 38 744.1 825 370 398 86 176 474 5.73 1.34 4.47 6.25
Replacements CLE 43 24 11 277 265 105 111 19 74 172 5.59 1.22 3.41 6.44 -1.06
Indians CLE 162 70 49 1021.1 1090 475 509 105 250 646 5.69 1.31 4.19 6.30
Original 5 BOS 140 67 50 866 871 408 425 97 252 674 7.00 1.30 4.24 6.19
Replacements BOS 22 10 2 125.2 108 56 60 15 58 98 7.02 1.32 4.01 5.71 -0.23
Red Sox BOS 162 77 52 991.2 979 464 485 112 310 772 7.01 1.30 4.21 6.12
Original 5 MIN 113 41 48 685 725 333 358 94 179 504 6.62 1.32 4.38 6.06
Replacements MIN 49 18 17 282.1 326 132 148 36 70 206 6.57 1.40 4.21 5.76 -0.17
Twins MIN 162 59 65 967.1 1051 465 506 130 249 710 6.61 1.34 4.33 5.97
Original 5 CWS 150 50 60 947 1009 471 520 119 267 642 6.10 1.35 4.48 6.31
Replacements CWS 12 3 5 69 77 34 37 12 20 55 7.17 1.41 4.43 5.75 -0.04
White Sox CWS 162 53 65 1016 1086 505 557 131 287 697 6.17 1.35 4.47 6.27
Original 5 TOR 86 34 30 559.2 562 265 288 68 162 405 6.51 1.29 4.26 6.51
Replacements TOR 76 30 24 439 420 206 221 58 149 300 6.15 1.30 4.22 5.78 -0.04
Blue Jays TOR 162 64 54 998.2 982 471 509 126 311 705 6.35 1.29 4.24 6.16
Original 5 TEX 104 29 46 534.1 629 325 365 66 255 341 5.74 1.65 5.47 5.14
Replacements TEX 58 13 19 303.1 347 187 208 42 143 186 5.51 1.61 5.54 5.24 0.07
Rangers TEX 162 42 65 838 976 512 573 108 398 527 5.66 1.64 5.50 5.17
Original 5 LAA 135 63 45 825 885 385 420 87 248 647 7.06 1.37 4.20 6.11
Replacements LAA 27 9 7 151.1 179 73 78 12 50 98 5.83 1.51 4.34 5.60 0.14
Angels LAA 162 72 52 976.1 1064 458 498 99 298 745 6.87 1.40 4.22 6.03
Original 5 STL 109 33 56 626 674 346 378 68 231 397 5.71 1.45 4.97 5.74
Replacements STL 53 15 16 263 313 152 172 47 90 135 4.62 1.53 5.20 4.96 0.23
Cardinals STL 162 48 72 889 987 498 550 115 321 532 5.39 1.47 5.04 5.49
Original 5 NYY 105 47 29 633.2 703 317 333 55 196 385 5.47 1.42 4.50 6.03
Replacements NYY 57 18 18 287.1 292 151 166 38 122 189 5.92 1.44 4.73 5.04 0.23
Yankees NYY 162 65 47 921 995 468 499 93 318 574 5.61 1.43 4.57 5.69
Original 5 CHI 136 56 39 823 748 378 403 105 300 647 7.08 1.27 4.13 6.05
Replacements CHI 26 8 11 132.2 147 67 74 17 45 88 5.97 1.45 4.55 5.10 0.41
Cubs CHI 162 64 50 955.2 895 445 477 122 345 735 6.92 1.30 4.19 5.90
Original 5 COL 121 45 36 736.2 790 367 395 92 235 437 5.34 1.39 4.48 6.09
Replacements COL 42 10 11 206.2 213 113 124 24 77 150 6.53 1.40 4.92 4.92 0.44
Rockies COL 163 55 47 943.1 1003 480 519 116 312 587 5.60 1.39 4.58 5.79
Original 5 DET 122 49 37 731.2 778 371 396 97 249 524 6.45 1.40 4.56 6.00
Replacements DET 40 13 13 200.1 213 114 123 27 93 129 5.80 1.53 5.12 5.01 0.56
Tigers DET 162 62 50 932 991 485 519 124 342 653 6.31 1.43 4.68 5.75
Original 5 KCR 100 28 43 564 651 288 312 64 190 358 5.71 1.49 4.60 5.64
Replacements KCR 62 21 27 323.1 352 193 205 49 120 169 4.70 1.46 5.37 5.22 0.78
Royals KCR 162 49 70 887.1 1003 481 517 113 310 527 5.35 1.48 4.88 5.48
Original 5 WAS 81 18 30 441 441 230 249 64 181 275 5.61 1.41 4.69 5.44
Replacements WAS 81 25 32 415 496 256 268 70 173 223 4.84 1.61 5.55 5.12 0.86
Nationals WAS 162 43 62 856 937 486 517 134 354 498 5.24 1.51 5.11 5.28
Original 5 HOU 131 40 52 793.1 856 402 424 108 234 528 5.99 1.37 4.56 6.06
Replacements HOU 31 8 16 164.1 180 99 106 27 60 96 5.26 1.46 5.42 5.30 0.86
Astros HOU 162 48 68 957.2 1036 501 530 135 294 624 5.86 1.39 4.71 5.91
Original 5 LAD 104 40 37 614 624 277 307 52 221 449 6.58 1.38 4.06 5.90
Replacements LAD 58 18 24 303 334 174 182 42 118 236 7.01 1.49 5.17 5.22 1.11
Dodgers LAD 162 58 61 917 958 451 489 94 339 685 6.72 1.41 4.43 5.66
Original 5 BAL 96 30 34 567.2 538 280 297 62 269 461 7.31 1.42 4.44 5.91
Replacements BAL 66 15 24 346.1 386 214 221 47 148 245 6.37 1.54 5.56 5.25 1.12
Orioles BAL 162 45 58 914 924 494 518 109 417 706 6.95 1.47 4.86 5.64
Original 5 FLA 105 28 41 581 713 335 383 72 240 383 5.93 1.64 5.53 5.19
Replacements FLA 57 14 22 276 333 196 217 47 155 233 7.60 1.77 4.84 6.39 1.20
Marlins FLA 162 42 63 857 1046 531 600 119 395 616 6.47 1.68 5.29 5.58
Original 5 ARI 137 54 44 840 862 378 413 94 309 606 6.49 1.39 4.05 6.13
Replacements ARI 25 6 9 118 135 72 76 24 40 77 5.87 1.48 5.49 4.72 1.44
Diamondbacks ARI 162 60 53 958 997 450 489 118 349 683 6.42 1.41 4.23 5.91
Original 5 TAM 116 36 41 683.2 745 365 406 86 244 607 7.99 1.45 4.80 5.89
Replacements TAM 46 9 21 249 299 174 178 36 74 192 6.94 1.50 6.29 5.41 1.48
Devil Rays TAM 162 45 62 932.2 1044 539 584 122 318 799 7.71 1.46 5.20 5.76
Original 5 NYM 132 55 41 781.2 726 355 390 96 314 610 7.02 1.33 4.09 5.92
Replacements NYM 30 11 12 159 192 105 110 21 59 106 6.00 1.58 5.94 5.30 1.86
Mets NYM 162 66 53 940.2 918 460 500 117 373 716 6.85 1.37 4.40 5.81
Original 5 OAK 90 33 28 578.1 575 227 249 52 150 395 6.15 1.25 3.53 6.43
Replacements OAK 72 19 32 374.2 426 227 259 43 175 246 5.91 1.60 5.45 5.20 1.92
Athletics OAK 162 52 60 953 1001 454 508 95 325 641 6.05 1.39 4.29 5.88
Original 5 ATL 118 45 40 697.2 707 309 328 75 211 516 6.66 1.32 3.99 5.91
Replacements ATL 44 13 18 219.1 246 144 155 51 88 146 5.99 1.52 5.91 4.98 1.92
Braves ATL 162 58 58 917 953 453 483 126 299 662 6.50 1.37 4.45 5.66
Original 5 SEA 141 54 53 820.2 947 447 482 97 282 531 5.82 1.50 4.90 5.82
Replacements SEA 21 5 9 108 146 85 88 15 32 67 5.58 1.65 7.08 5.14 2.18
Mariners SEA 162 59 62 928.2 1093 532 570 112 314 598 5.80 1.52 5.16 5.73
Original 5 PGH 127 40 50 762 871 388 418 88 242 509 6.01 1.46 4.58 6.00
Replacements PGH 35 6 20 171 214 132 137 15 84 92 4.84 1.74 6.95 4.89 2.36
Pirates PGH 162 46 70 933 1085 520 555 103 326 601 5.80 1.51 5.02 5.76
Original 5 CIN 125 39 46 783 839 385 417 102 200 597 6.86 1.33 4.43 6.26
Replacements CIN 37 10 13 174 223 132 137 31 72 91 4.71 1.70 6.83 4.70 2.40
Reds CIN 162 49 59 957 1062 517 554 133 272 688 6.47 1.39 4.86 5.91
Original 5 PHA 105 40 34 741 666 347 362 102 208 476 5.78 1.18 4.21 7.06
Replacements PHA 57 21 16 197.1 359 165 174 39 101 188 8.57 2.33 7.53 3.46 3.31
Phillies PHA 162 61 50 938.1 1025 512 536 141 309 664 6.37 1.42 4.91 5.79
Original 5 SFG 120 41 47 834.2 727 344 376 66 306 477 5.14 1.24 3.71 6.96
Replacements SFG 42 10 11 134 223 112 117 24 94 225 15.11 2.37 7.52 3.19 3.81
Giants SFG 162 51 58 968.2 950 456 493 90 400 702 6.52 1.39 4.24 5.98
Original 5 SDP 129 49 36 841.1 721 321 335 58 226 598 6.40 1.13 3.43 6.52
Replacements SDP 34 10 13 93.2 195 106 110 24 55 112 10.76 2.67 10.19 2.75 6.75
Padres SDP 163 59 49 935 916 427 445 82 281 710 6.83 1.28 4.11 5.74
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