Home and Away 2007
Monday, October 08 2007 @ 09:49 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
Let's regard this as a 2007 sequel to April's enormous examination (with the Data Tables here) of Home Field Advantage.
In baseball, history teaches us, the home team normally posts a winning percentage of around .540. Which means, so long as the mathematics remain more or less what we understand them to be, that the road team's winning percentage will be around .460. The difference between those two numbers - .080 - is the normal Home Field Advantage.
American League home teams did a little better than that this past season, posting a .560 winning percentage. This is a little higher than normal (the last time AL home teams did so well was in 1985) but not really all that far out of the ordinary. AL road teams played .462 ball, and the average AL HFA was .099.
Obviously, the American League did not play .500 ball overall in 2007 and we all know why - all the teams got to play a little against the National League, and generally beat the living crap out of them.)
Which is why National League teams won fewer games than usual both at home (.535 ball) and on the road (.456 ball). And it all worked out in the wash. The senior circuit's HFA was .079, right around the historical average.
So here is the Data Table:
HOME RECORDS ROAD RECORDS
Home Field
Team G W L PCT RS RA | G W L PCT RS RA Advantage
TEX A 81 47 34 .580 421 400 | 81 28 53 .346 395 444 .235
MIL N 81 51 30 .630 430 363 | 81 32 49 .395 371 413 .235
TOR A 81 49 32 .605 380 325 | 81 34 47 .420 373 374 .185
LAA A 81 54 27 .667 460 348 | 81 40 41 .494 362 383 .173
COL N 82 51 31 .622 478 396 | 81 39 42 .481 382 362 .140
HOU N 81 42 39 .519 361 367 | 81 31 50 .383 362 446 .136
SEA A 81 49 32 .605 386 406 | 81 39 42 .481 408 407 .123
NYY A 81 52 29 .642 520 382 | 81 42 39 .519 448 395 .123
ARI N 81 50 31 .617 386 374 | 81 40 41 .494 326 358 .123
STL N 81 43 38 .531 365 385 | 81 35 46 .432 360 444 .099
CLE A 81 52 29 .642 425 366 | 81 44 37 .543 386 338 .099
TB A 81 37 44 .457 374 440 | 81 29 52 .358 408 504 .099
AL Total 1053 590 463 .560 5279 5043 | 1053 486 567 .462 5129 5113 .099
WSN N 81 40 41 .494 324 355 | 81 33 48 .407 349 428 .086
SF N 81 39 42 .481 336 361 | 81 32 49 .395 347 359 .086
KC A 81 35 46 .432 355 399 | 81 28 53 .346 333 472 .086
NL Total 1297 694 603 .535 6179 6067 | 1297 592 705 .456 6029 6321 .079
BOS A 81 51 30 .630 472 352 | 81 45 36 .556 395 305 .074
CIN N 81 39 42 .481 416 439 | 81 33 48 .407 367 414 .074
PIT N 81 37 44 .457 373 390 | 81 31 50 .383 351 456 .074
SD N 81 47 34 .580 323 278 | 82 42 40 .512 418 388 .068
PHI N 81 47 34 .580 450 421 | 81 42 39 .519 442 400 .062
LAD N 81 43 38 .531 376 374 | 81 39 42 .481 359 353 .049
CHI A 81 38 43 .469 351 446 | 81 34 47 .420 342 393 .049
OAK A 81 40 41 .494 331 350 | 81 36 45 .444 410 408 .049
ATL N 81 44 37 .543 377 359 | 81 40 41 .494 433 374 .049
MIN A 81 41 40 .506 327 343 | 81 38 43 .469 391 382 .037
CHC N 81 44 37 .543 408 370 | 81 41 40 .506 344 320 .037
DET A 81 45 36 .556 446 417 | 81 43 38 .531 441 380 .025
BAL A 81 35 46 .432 386 468 | 81 34 47 .420 370 400 .012
FLA N 81 36 45 .444 409 459 | 81 35 46 .432 381 432 .012
NYM N 81 41 40 .506 367 376 | 81 47 34 .580 437 374 -.074
Single season performance in this category is a blip, a one-year phenomenon. When it comes to a team's relationship with its ballpark, you really want 1000 games or more to consider. Anything can happen in 80. But, still, some random observations would not be out of place, I think:
Texas - The Rangers had the biggest Home-Road split in the majors last season. This was largely because they were tied (with the Royals) as the worst road team in all of baseball. In their own house, they played just as well as the Phillies and Padres. The Rangers normally have a good Home Field Advantage (.104 coming into 2007, which is quite impressive.)
There are a number of interesting issues about the Rangers going forward. I'll bump into one of them when I look at the Sixth Man. For now, consider what the AL West standings would have been had the season begun on June 14:
AL West W L GBL
Los Angeles 53 43 --
Texas 52 45 1.5
Seattle 53 47 2
Oakland 41 57 13
Colorado - As usual, the Rockies had a huge (.140) Home Field Advantage - Coors Field provides the biggest HFA in the history of baseball. However, what the Rockies did in 2007 isn't all that impressive by their own standards. They have in the past played .169 better at Coors than on the road, and four other teams actually had bigger home-road splits this past season. They posted their best ever road record (39-42 this past season), which accounts for some narrowing of the gap - while they also had their best home record as well (51-31),there was much more room for improvement on the road.
The eternal problem for the Rockies has been developing an approach to pitching at altitude - the offense has taken care of itself (so well that it has been notoriously difficult to evaluate Colorado's hitters.) They seem to have tried everything, with little success. Intuitively, one would think that if you had a ball park that turned Balls in Play into hits, often long ones - you might want to try to find pitchers who didn't allow as many Balls in Play. Just a thought. But it may also be that what you need to do is develop your own pitching - develop young pitchers who learn how to become major league pitchers in this odd environment. It's pretty obvious now that bringing in Proven Veterans (Mike Hampton, Darryl Kile), no matter how talented, is a bad idea. They arrive in Coors, and suddenly discover that much of what they've built their careers on no longer functions.
I think this is a topic that would benefit from further exploration. Kile famously struggled at Coors largely because he couldn't throw his curve the same as he had in Houston. Jeff Francis also relies heavily on a curveball, but Francis developed as a major leaguer calling Coors his home field. Or - who knows - could Francis use his changeup more and his curveball less when pitching at home?
St. Louis - In their first season at Busch III, the Cardinals had an enormous HFA (.193) - off this ridiculously small sample, it provided them the greatest Home Field Advantage in almost a century. We knew this wouldn't last - in 2007, they improved by a game on the road and declined by six games at home. It's still an impressive HFA of .099, but it wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs this time. Could they owe their unlikely 2006 championship to the novelty and excitement of the new park, where the big crowds help spur on a decidedly less than ordinary team?
Philadelphia - Coming into 2007, the Phillies had actually played better (by a single game) on the road than they had at Citizens Bank - it was the only park in baseball with a negative HFA. They turned that around this season, playing five games better (HFA of .068) at home than on the road. That's still a below average home field advantage.
Toronto - The Blue Jays had an exceptionally large home-road split this past season. It's meaningless, a single season fluke. In almost twenty years at the Dome, the Jays have had a smaller than average HFA (.059). The Jays scored almost exactly the same number of runs as they allowed on the road, and while that shouldn't lead to a .500 record in road games, they ought to have done a little better than 34-47.
New York Mets - The only team in the majors who played better on the road than at home this past season. It's not entirely a matter of their September collapse, which took place largely at Shea Stadium (they lost 9 of their last 10 home games). The Mets were the best road team in the majors in 2007, and even if they'd gone 7-3 in their final 10 home games, they'd have only matched their road record. Of course, they'd have been in the playoffs.
Florida - The Marlins have had a very large HFA at Dolphins Stadium. Not this year - they were just one game better at home. Single season fluke, most likely.
Baltimore - Camden Yards has never been particularly kind to the Orioles. Coming into 2007, they had just a .027 HFA,- that's the smallest figure of any park in the last century (800 game minimum.) 2007 was more of the same - just one game better at home than on the road.
You know, while we're here, we might as well have a look at what these numbers tell us about Ballpark Effects this season. Let's run those numbers again, forgetting about the wins and losses - and look instead at the difference between the number of runs these teams scored and allowed at home as opposed to how many runs were scored in their road games.
HOME RECORDS ROAD RECORDS
Home Field Road Game Offensive
Team G RS RA Scoring | G RS RA Scoring | Factor
BOS 81 472 352 824 | 81 395 305 700 | 1.18
CHC 81 408 370 778 | 81 344 320 664 | 1.17
COL 82 478 396 874 | 81 382 362 744 | 1.16
ARI 81 386 374 760 | 81 326 358 684 | 1.11
BAL 81 386 468 854 | 81 370 400 770 | 1.11
CIN 81 416 439 855 | 81 367 414 781 | 1.09
CLE 81 425 366 791 | 81 386 338 724 | 1.09
LAA 81 460 348 808 | 81 362 383 745 | 1.08
CHI 81 351 446 797 | 81 342 393 735 | 1.08
NYY 81 520 382 902 | 81 448 395 843 | 1.07
FLA 81 409 459 868 | 81 381 432 813 | 1.07
LAD 81 376 374 750 | 81 359 353 712 | 1.05
DET 81 446 417 863 | 81 441 380 821 | 1.05
PHI 81 450 421 871 | 81 442 400 842 | 1.03
MIL 81 430 363 793 | 81 371 413 784 | 1.01
SF 81 336 361 697 | 81 347 359 706 | 0.99
TEX 81 421 400 821 | 81 395 444 839 | 0.98
SEA 81 386 406 792 | 81 408 407 815 | 0.97
PIT 81 373 390 763 | 81 351 456 807 | 0.95
TOR 81 380 325 705 | 81 373 374 747 | 0.94
KC 81 355 399 754 | 81 333 472 805 | 0.94
STL 81 365 385 750 | 81 360 444 804 | 0.93
NYM 81 367 376 743 | 81 437 374 811 | 0.92
ATL 81 377 359 736 | 81 433 374 807 | 0.91
HOU 81 361 367 728 | 81 362 446 808 | 0.90
TB 81 374 440 814 | 81 408 504 912 | 0.89
WSN 81 324 355 679 | 81 349 428 777 | 0.87
MIN 81 327 343 670 | 81 391 382 773 | 0.87
OAK 81 331 350 681 | 81 410 408 818 | 0.83
SD 81 323 278 601 | 82 418 388 806 | 0.75
Wow! Seems like old times. Fenway Park and Wrigley Field coming in one-two.
But still, this is very interesting. No? Coors Field has been the greatest hitting environment in the history of baseball. It's still pretty good, but in 2007 it was just another excellent hitter's park - not a unique phenomena that needs to be considered as a special case all its own.
In other shocking news, the Texas Rangers scored and allowed more runs on the road than they did at home. This is probably a one year blip - Ameriquest had supplanted Fenway as the best hitting environment in the AL over the previous decade.
Yet the most shocking number on this entire page of numbers? Look at how many runs the New York Yankees scored at home this season (in what is still a solid pitcher's park, if not the historically difficult place to hit where Ruth and Gehrig and DiMaggio and Mantle made their bones.)
520.
Do you know how many teams have scored that many runs at home in the last century? Of course not, that's why I'm here. Anyway, the 2007 Yankees are just the 18th team since 1900 to score 520 runs at home. Six of those eighteen teams played 1600 metres above sea level (the Colorado Rockies of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001) in the greatest offensive era since the 1930s. Nine of those eighteen teams actually played in the 1930s - the Yankees of 1931, 1937, 1938, the A's of 1932, the Cubs, Cardinals, and Phillies of 1930, the Indians of 1936, and the Tigers of 1937. The others are the Boston Red Sox of 1950 and 2003, the Chicago White Sox of 2003, and this year's Yankees.
This offensive explosion in the Bronx made the Stadium look like a hitter's park this season (Offensive Factor of 1.07). But you'll note that Yankee pitchers gave up fewer runs at home than on the road. And the Yankees also scored more runs in their road games than any other team in the majors. Which is pretty good, but the Yankees have already had 21 teams that scored more runs than that on the road.
Only six teams since 1900 have scored 520 runs in road games - the 1996 Seattle Mariners, and five Yankee teams from the 1930s (1930, 1931, 1932, 1936, 1939)
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