Top 30 Prospects- #20-#11

Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 09:07 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mike Green

Yesterday, we took a closer look at our #30-#21 prospects. Today, it is #20-#11. In past years, the more highly rated prospects were higher up in the system. Not so this year, as recent drafts take up more than their share of the prized slots. As you shall see.

20. Sergio Santos, SS
Born July 4, 1983. Selected in the 1st round of the 2002 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG

2005 21
AAA
490
21
3
12
34
108
2
2
.239 .288
.367

2006 22
AAA 481
24
1
5
24
96
1
3
.214
.254 .299

2007 23
AA
432
34
2
20
43
97
2
0
.250 .325 .477

2007 23 AAA
47
2
0
0
1
10
2
0 .191
.204 .234

Would you have handled Sergio Santos differently? That's the question I kept asking myself as I looked over his minor league history and I just don't know. It's tempting to blame the Diamondbacks for rushing Santos to Triple-A as a 21-year-old and blame them for his subsequent stagnation, but I don't think it's fair. Santos had a .776 OPS in A+ as a 19-year-old in 2003 and a .793 OPS in AA as a 20-year-old the next year. While neither total is outstanding, they are both fine for a shortstop. The Diamondbacks could have been more conservative with him, but it's very likely Santos was able to get by on his raw talent in the lower minors, but has not been able to make the necessary adjustments as he's faced tougher pitching.

Santos is never going to hit for a high average or be an OBP machine, so he's going to have to survive by hitting .250 with a lot of power, as he did this year. He certainly rebounded from an awful year at Syracuse last year, but his totals were inflated by April, where he had an 1.109 OPS. Every other month his OPS was in the 700's. Santos is not a strong defender and he made 24 errors at shortstop this year. Many have speculated that a move to third base is in his future. In either case, he will likely be given another shot at Triple-A next year. If he fails in his third attempt at the level it might mark the end of his career with the Blue Jays. However, there will likely be several other clubs willing to give a 24-year-old former first-round pick a chance to redeem himself.

19. Adrian Martin, RHP
Born September 2, 1984. Selected in the 19th round of the 2003 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA

2005 20 A- 22 2
44
10.35 0.20 0.41 7.31 3.05

2006 21 A 27
9
94
10.55 1.24
1.81
5.89
4.37

2007 22
A 19 4
43
7.27
0.21 0.59
6.85
0.83

2007
22
A+
13
5
45
6.70
0.59
0.79
7.88
2.56

The swingman worked his way into our sights with improvements in all performance markers, proving that 4 years is not long enough to judge the quality of a draft. Who would have thought that a pitcher drafted out of high school in 2003 who hasn't yet made double A would be rated this highly? With pitching prospects, one never knows. Martin throws a couple of fastballs, a hook, a slider and an occasional change. He has excellent control as the stat line above shows. As with all command and control pitchers, double A will be a test for Martin. He should be there at some point in 2008.

18. Lee Gronkiewicz RHP
Born August 21st, 1978. Selected by the Blue Jays from the Indians in the December 2004 Rule 5 minor league draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2004	25	AA	52	0	65.1	8.95	0.69	2.89	9.37	3.03
2005	26	AA	38	0	38.1	5.63	0.47	2.35	10.57	1.41
2005	26	AAA	28	0	28.1	6.67	0.95	4.13	8.26	2.22
2006	27	AAA	41	0	44.0	9.61	0.82	1.69	6.75	3.27
2007	28	AA	24	0	30.0	9.30	0.90	1.20	11.10	1.80
2007	28	AAA	23	0	44.2	7.66	0.81	1.21	9.27	2.82

Note: The above statline does not include Gronkiewicz's one hitless inning for Triple-A Buffalo in 2004 nor his 4 major league innings in 2007.

Lee Gronkiewicz was a non-drafted free agent, signed by the Cleveland Indians and then selected by the Blue Jays in the Rule 5 minor league draft during the offseason between the 2004 and 2005 seasons. After two successful seasons at Syracuse Gronkiewicz got sent back to New Hampshire in 2007, where he already had two great seasons. Gronkiewicz basically dominated Double-A and was promoted mid-season to Triple-A., where he had his best year for Syracuse. Although he got an MLB promotion during the year, he made only one appearance and didn't even get a September call-up.

Here comes some statistical praise of Gronkiewicz, which is all I really have to go on as I've never seem him pitch - feel free to skip to concluding paragraph. [Gronkiewicz is 28, so he is not a typical prospect. However, this is the third straight year he's posted an ERA under 3.30 at Triple-A. Over the last two years he seems to have made a noticeable improvement to his walk rate and this year he got his strikeout ratios up to previous levels, after a bit of a decline last year. Gronkiewicz doesn't qualify for league leading statistics at Triple-A because he didn't reach 50 innings, but let's pretend he did. If so, he would be tied for the 14th best K/9 ratio in the International League with Ryan Houston. Guess how many players in the International League's top 100 in K/9 ratio had a BB/9 ratio lower than Gronkiewicz's? Three. Jamie Shields and Shaun Marcum, who have better K/9 and BB/9 ratios than Gronk, and Josh Towers, who had a lower BB/9 ratio, but only struck out 6.77 per 9 innings. (In case you think this is an International League random fact, there are also only 3 players in the Pacific Coast League who best Gronkiewicz, as well. Jered Weaver beats him at both and Anthony Reyes and Kerry Lightenberg beat his BB/9 rate, but not his K/9 ratio.) Also, Gronkiewicz would have had the 9th best BB/9 rate in all of Triple-A and there's only one player in the top 8 without at least 100 MLB innings. This is slightly biased sample as it contains mostly starters, although any reliever who spent the entire year in Triple-A should qualify, but regardless, I think you get the drift of the argument.]

Now Gronkiewicz has combined his fine control with an ability to strike out batters, there is absolutely no reason to keep him from an extended shot in the majors, even if he doesn't look like a big league pitcher or throw a fastball that would attract a scout's attention. Gronkiewicz doesn't have the stuff to become an overpowering setup man, but he could very easily become an average 6th/7th inning guy. Maybe Gronkiewicz is Michael Nakamura or John Stephens reincarnate, but he deserves every opportunity to attempt to prove the doubters wrong. If Toronto isn't prepared to give him a shot in the bullpen next year and can't see a spot opening up by mid-season I hope they give Gronkiewicz the opportunity to show another team what he can do.

17. Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP
Born June 20, 1985. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2005	20	A	26	25	137	7.16	0.53	4.73	9.33	3.15
2006	21	A	28	28	143	8.10	0.31	4.27	9.67	2.70
2007	22	R	4	4	10	8.38	2.79	6.52	10.24	6.52
2007	22	A-	3	3	13	5.54	0.00	4.85	9.00	2.77

The promising lefty with the filthy curveball underwent surgery for a torn labrum after the 2006 season. He returned to Rookie League and later to the New York Penn League late in 2007. His stuff was apparently good, but his control was less sharp than previously. This is completely normal. Cheng has a number of assets, in addition to his curve. He throws a good change, which he is going to have work on more, now that he has had the shoulder surgery. He also has a fine pick-off move. Look for him to start in the Lansing or Dunedin rotation in 2008, but his future may be in the bullpen.

16. Brian Jeroloman, C
Born May 10, 1985. Selected in the 6th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG

2006 21
A- 141
10
1
0
26
38
0
0
.241 .363
.326

2007 22
A+ 290
14
0
3
85
57
0
0
.259
.421 .334

Considered by Baseball America to be the best defensive catcher in the 2006 draft, the former Florida Gator displayed an amazing batting eye in 2007 as he drew a Florida State League leading 85 walks. He was second in the FSL in OBP, trailing only his Dunedin teammate Josh Kreuzer in that department. During his three year college career, Jeroloman drew more walks than strikeouts but his 85-57 ratio this season blew away his college ratios by a large margin. He alternated bad months with good months in '07 with the highlights coming in May with a .281 average and in July when he batted an even .300 along with an OBP of nearly .500 and a slugging percentage of .475. If the July Jeroloman shows up for next year and beyond, the Jays would really have something but he has yet to crack the .350 SLG level in his overall pro career. The question now is can he continue his plate discipline with New Hampshire and maintain his defence behind the dish in '08? The fact that he held his own with the bat in a pitcher's league this season bodes well for the future. At this rate, he may be the organization's next Gregg Zaun.

15. Justin Jackson, SS
Born December 11, 1988. Selected in the Supplemental round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	R	166	1	1	2	20	44	7	4	.187	.274	.241

Justin Jackson was a toolsy HS draft pick - not exactly someone the Jays have typically selected in the Ricciardi era. Physically he's in the Derek Jeter mode - about 6'2" and 175 lbs (and perhaps part of the reason he wore #2 for the GCL Jays). His strength at this point is his glove, reportedly showing good range, a strong arm and some flash. Jackson was able to draw some walks so it appears he has a decent eye and BA's draft scouting report noted he had a 'good feel for hitting'. We'll see what the Jays player development staff can do with Jackson. Worst case he's probably Alex Gonzalez. Best case he's a gold glover who can hit at the top of the lineup.

14. Josh Banks, RHP
Born July 18, 1982. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2003 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA

2005 22 AA 27 27 162 8.82 1.00 0.61 8.05 3.83

2006 23 AAA 29 29 170 9.70 1.84 1.47 6.64 5.17

2007 24 AAA 27 27 169 10.22 1.17 1.28 5.38 4.63

Banks repeated AAA and pitched the same number of innings in 2007 as 2006. Banks allowed a few more hits in 2007 but he cut down on the worst hits, the home runs. Banks gave up 35 home runs in 2006 and cut that down to 22 in 2007. As a result Banks ERA went down from over 5 to 4.63, Banks' K/9 rate also went down from 6.6 to 5.4 in 2007. Banks features a 90 mph fastball that is pretty straight, a slider, a change and a splitter. Banks worked on a curveball for 2007 to try and change the hitters eye level and a cut fastball to provide more movement. Banks works around the plate, he doesn't walk many, but to consistently succeeed against major league hitters you need an out pitch, Banks is still working on that. Banks will likely return to AAA next season.

13. J.P. Arencibia, C
Born January 5, 1986. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	18	NCAA	283	16	1	14	24	37	0	0	.322	.379	.534
2006	19	NCAA	216	17	0	11	20	30	0	0	.352	.419	.583
2007	20	NCAA	191	15	1	8	33	38	2	2	.330	.450	.545
2007	21	R+	228	17	1	3	14	56	0	0	.254	.309	.377

Prior to the NCAA season there was thought that Arencibia could go in the top 10 of the draft as he showed power and plate discipline and was a member of Team USA where the elite college players spend their summers. A back issue at Tennessee hurt his stock and the Jays scooped him up with the 21st pick of the draft.

Arencibia's bat generally gets good reviews, particularly with regards to power. His Auburn numbers obviously didn't show that, but he was also slowed a bit after getting hit on the wrist. Where Arencibia gets mixed review is on defence. His arm strength is good but at Tennessee he had poor results throwing out runners. The Jays felt that they could clean up his footwork and get his defence to an acceptable level. The early results look good as Arencibia threw out 34% of basestealers in pro ball. He also threw out two runners in the clinching win in the NY-P final to go along with his HR. Dunedin is Arencibia's likely destination to start the 2008 season.

12. Eric Eiland, OF
Born September 16, 1988. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year
Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG

2007 18
R 176
7
1
1
22
62
16 1
.216
.315 .284

In almost every draft a toolsy high school outfielder/football player with first or second round talent sparks my interest. Sometimes, these guys turn into Carl Crawford (1999, 52nd overall), but just as often they never realize their potential, as the stories of Kenny Kelly (1997, 80th overall) and Vince Faison (1999, 20th overall) attest. Eric Eiland is one of those prospects and surprisingly the Jays drafted him, in a move that was a departure from the modus operandi of JP's past drafts. Eiland, who had already signed with Texas A&M for baseball, had also attracted the interest of NCAA football scouts, but he decided to pursue baseball permanently after an excellent display at the 2006 Area Code Baseball Games at Long Beach.

There's a lot to like about Eiland. He's a possible five-tool talent, with standout speed. Only four players in the GCL stole more bases than his 16 (three others stole as many), but all of them were caught at least once, and one was caught 9 times. In fact, except for Eiland every player in the top 10 was caught at least 3 times. It looks like Eiland, who can run a 4.5 40-yard dash, knows how to pick his spots and has the makings of a smart baserunner, as well. He looks to be the fastest player in the Jays system and one who will be given the green light at every level.

He projects to be a major league defender, with at least an average arm and plus range. He played right field a fair bit in his senior year in high school because he struggled with a hamstring injury, but he is a good center fielder when healthy. Eiland is a line-drive hitter with excellent bat speed. As the stats show, Eiland still has to develop his hitting ability, as striking out in one-third of your at-bats in rookie-ball is not a good sign. However, Eiland is one of the best raw prospects in the Jays system and if his bat develops, given the rest of his repetoire, he should become an above-average big league CF.

11. Joel Collins, C
Born April 24, 1986. Selected in the 10th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	19	NCAA	182	7	0	2	14	29	6	2	.264	.338	.335
2006	20	NCAA	197	13	0	6	27	26	6	3	.299	.430	.457
2007	21	NCAA	191	11	0	10	20	16	7	1	.335	.453	.550
2007	21	R	70	4	0	7	9	17	0	0	.257	.376	.614

Collins was drafted in the 10th round out of the University of South Alabama, Adam Lind's alma mater. He was known in collegiate ball primarily for his glove, as he was voted one of the nation's top 10 defensive catchers, and threw out over 50% of prospective thieves in his final year. He came on with the bat in his junior year, adding home run power to fine strike zone control, and a willingness to be hit by pitches, to his arsenal. He started his pro career late due to visa issues (Collins is Canadian), and was placed in Rookie ball presumably because of the presence of 1st round pick J.P. Arencibia in Auburn. His home run hitting prowess in his limited time there suggested that the power he showed in the last year of college was not a metal bat fluke. He will hopefully get a chance in full-season ball in 2008.

Tomorrow, we look at our top 10.

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