Here's a dumb and pointless exercise. But when it comes to dumb and pointless exercises, I'm your man.
How bad have J.P. Ricciardi's drafts been?
How the hell would anyone presume to know? Ask me in ten years.
Off the top of my head, I believe exactly one player (Khalil Greene) drafted since 2002 has played as many as 500 games in the major leagues. The vast majority have played zero.
Of course, the vast majority will end up playing zero. But ten years from now we'll have a much better notion of what to make of the selections of Romero and Purcey and Snider and the rest.
What we badly need here is a little context. There are 29 other teams in the majors. What did they get out of those five drafts?
Probably not as much as Toronto - the emphasis on college players during the first few years of Ricciardi's tenure brought players into the organization who were much more likely to reach the majors in less time than a high school player would require. But let's assemble all the draft picks, take note of how many Win Shares they've earned so far, and see who's selections have provided the most return so far.
Time for a Data Table!
1. Oakland 187 (Swisher, Teahen, Blanton, Street, Ethier, Quintanilla, Komine, Brown, Windsor)
2. Toronto 137 (Hill, Bush, Marcum, Adams, Janssen, Litsch, Lind, Mastny, Thigpen, Jackson, Roberts, Peterson)
3. Atlanta 115 (Francoeur, McCann, James, Escobar, Saltalamacchia, Meyer, Devine)
4. L.A. Dodgers 106 (Martin, Broxton, Billingsley, Loney, Kemp, Stults, Young)
5. Washington 102 (Zimmerman, Cordero, Bray, Bergmann, Owens, Rasner, O'Connor, Campbell)
6. Arizona 100 (Snyder, Jackson, Drew, Quentin, Owings, Cormier, Upton, Nippert)
7. Detroit 94 (Granderson, Verlander, Zumaya, Clevlen, Miller, Moorer, Maybin, Tata, Rogers, Giarratino)
8. Milwaukee 91 (Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Gwynn, Breslow, Taubenheim, Anderson, Eveland)
9. San Francisco 88 (Cain, Correia, Hensley, Lincecum, Lewis, Aardsma, Wilson, Sanchez, Frandsen, Ortmeier, Misch, Ishikawa, Sadler)
10. Colorado 86 (Francis, Tulowitzki, Spillborghs,Shealy, Iannetta, Baker, Salazar, Stewart, Esposito)
11. Baltimore 72 (Markakis, Ray, Maine, Loewen, Fahey, Fiorentino, Majewski, Hoey, Penn)
11. Boston 72 (Papelbon, Murton, Pedroia, Meredith, Lester, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Murphy, Alvarez, Hansen)
13. N.Y. Mets 67 (Kazmir, Bannister, Milledge, Pelfrey, Humber)
14. San Diego 66 (Greene, McAnulty, Stauffer)
15. L.A. Angels 61 (Weaver, Kendrick, Willits, Saunders)
16. Texas 56 (Kinsler, Loe, Littleton, Feldman, Danks, Narron, Meyer)
17. Florida 55 (Hermida, Johnson, Olsen, Tankersley, Vargas, Kensing, Reed, Chick, Andino)
18. Pittsburgh 53 (Capps, Maholm, Gorzelanny, Sharpless, Eldred, Bullington, Demaria)
19. Minnesota 52 (Crain, Neshek, Baker, Garza, Perkins)
20. Tampa Bay 50 (Upton, Young, Dukes, Sonnanstine, Orvella, Hammel)
21. Kansas City 49 (Greinke, Gordon, Butler, Costa, Howell, Murphy, Bayliss, Braun, Maier)
22. White Sox 48 (McCarthy, Reed, Fields, Anderson, Logan, Rupe, Ring, Tracey, Sweeney)
23. Cleveland 47 (Garko, Guthrie, Kouzmanoff, Sowers, Slocum)
24. Philadelphia 32 (Hamels, Kendrick, Bourn, Mathieson)
25. Cubs 20 (Hill, Marshall)
26. Houston 19 (Pence, Hirst, Zobrist)
27. N.Y.Yankees 19 (Halsey, Karstens, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Clippard, Beam)
28. St. Louis 16 (Thompson, Reyes)
29. Seattle 13 (Morrow, O'Flaherty, Lowe, Feierabend, Jones, Bohn)
30. Cincinnati 8 (Wagner, Denorfia, Votto)
I dunno. Looks like Ricciardi could have done worse. But ask me in ten years.
Team Year Round OvPck Player POS WS
OAK 2002 1 16 Nick Swisher OF 52
OAK 2002 1 39 Mark Teahen 3B 42
OAK 2002 1 24 Joe Blanton P 37
OAK 2004 1 40 Huston Street P 31
OAK 2003 2 62 Andre Ethier OF 24
OAK 2003 1 33 Omar Quintanilla SS 1
OAK 2002 9 278 Shane Komine P 0
OAK 2002 1 35 Jeremy Brown C 0
OAK 2004 3 9 Jason Windsor P 0
TOR 2003 1 13 Aaron Hill SS 39
TOR 2002 2 55 David Bush P 33
TOR 2003 3 80 Shaun Marcum P 17
TOR 2002 1 14 Russ Adams SS 15
TOR 2004 4 117 Casey Janssen P 13
TOR 2004 3 83 Adam Lind 1B 7
TOR 2004 24 717 Jesse Litsch P 6
TOR 2003 11 320 Tom Mastny P 5
TOR 2004 2 57 Curtis Thigpen C 1
TOR 2004 1 32 Zach Jackson P 1
TOR 2003 18 530 Ryan Roberts 3B 0
TOR 2002 4 116 Adam Peterson P 0
ATL 2002 1 23 Jeff Francoeur OF 46
ATL 2002 2 64 Brian McCann C 43
ATL 2002 20 605 Chuck James P 16
ATL 2005 2 75 Yunel Escobar SS 8
ATL 2003 1 36 Jarrod Saltalamacchia C 3
ATL 2002 1 34 Dan Meyer P 0
ATL 2005 1 27 Joey Devine P -1
LAD 2002 17 51 Russell Martin C 40
LAD 2002 2 60 Jonathan Broxton P 19
LAD 2003 1 24 Chad Billingsley P 17
LAD 2002 1 19 James Loney 1B 13
LAD 2003 6 181 Matt Kemp OF 13
LAD 2002 15 451 Eric Stults P 3
LAD 2002 4 121 Delwyn Young 2B 1
WAS 2005 1 4 Ryan Zimmerman 3B 46
WAS 2003 1 20 Chad Cordero P 41
WAS 2004 1 13 Bill Bray P 5
WAS 2002 11 317 Jay Bergmann P 3
WAS 2003 2 57 Jerry Owens OF 3
WAS 2002 2 46 Darrell Rasner P 2
WAS 2002 7 197 Mike O'Connor P 2
WAS 2004 34 1014 Brett Campbell P 0
ARI 2002 2 68 Chris Snyder C 31
ARI 2003 1 19 Conor Jackson 3B 23
ARI 2004 1 15 Stephen Drew SS 19
ARI 2003 1 29 Carlos Quentin OF 11
ARI 2005 3 83 Micah Owings P 10
ARI 2002 4 129 Lance Cormier P 5
ARI 2005 1 1 Justin Upton SS 1
ARI 2002 15 459 Dustin Nippert P 0
DET 2002 3 80 Curtis Granderson OF 48
DET 2004 1 2 Justin Verlander P 28
DET 2002 11 320 Joel Zumaya P 14
DET 2002 2 49 Brent Clevlen OF 2
DET 2006 1 6 Andrew Miller P 1
DET 2002 1 8 Scott Moore SS 1
DET 2005 1 10 Cameron Maybin OF 0
DET 2003 16 460 Jordan Tata P 0
DET 2003 11 310 Brian Rogers P 0
DET 2003 3 70 Tony Giarratano SS 0
MIL 2002 1 7 Prince Fielder 1B 41
MIL 2003 1 2 Rickie Weeks 2B 29
MIL 2005 1 5 Ryan Braun 3B 18
MIL 2003 2 39 Tony Gwynn OF 3
MIL 2002 26 769 Craig Breslow P 2
MIL 2003 19 549 Ty Taubenheim P 1
MIL 2003 24 699 Drew Anderson OF 0
MIL 2002 16 469 Dana Eveland P -3
SF 2002 1 25 Matt Cain P 28
SF 2002 4 127 Kevin Correia P 15
SF 2002 8 247 Clay Hensley P 15
SF 2006 1 10 Timothy Lincecum P 7
SF 2002 2 66 Fred Lewis OF 6
SF 2003 1 22 David Aardsma P 5
SF 2003 24 723 Brian Wilson P 3
SF 2004 27 820 Jonathan Sanchez P 3
SF 2004 12 370 Kevin Frandsen 2B 2
SF 2002 3 97 Dan Ortmeier OF 2
SF 2003 7 213 Patrick Misch P 1
SF 2002 21 637 Travis Ishikawa 1B 1
SF 2003 6 183 Billy Sadler P 0
COL 2002 1 9 Jeff Francis P 33
COL 2005 1 7 Troy Tulowitzki SS 19
COL 2002 7 201 Ryan Spilborghs OF 11
COL 2002 11 321 Ryan Shealy 1B 9
COL 2004 4 110 Chris Iannetta C 5
COL 2002 4 111 Jeff Baker INF 4
COL 2002 8 231 Jeff Salazar OF 4
COL 2003 1 10 Ian Stewart 3B 1
COL 2002 12 351 Mike Esposito P 0
BAL 2003 1 7 Nick Markakis OF 30
BAL 2003 3 74 Chris Ray P 21
BAL 2002 6 166 John Maine P 16
BAL 2002 1 4 Adam Loewen P 6
BAL 2002 12 346 Brandon Fahey SS 4
BAL 2004 3 79 Jeff Fiorentino C 1
BAL 2002 3 76 Val Majewski OF 0
BAL 2003 13 374 James Hoey P -2
BAL 2002 5 136 Hayden Penn P -4
BOS 2003 4 114 Jonathan Papelbon P 32
BOS 2003 1 32 Matt Murton OF 21
BOS 2004 2 65 Dustin Pedroia SS 17
BOS 2004 6 185 Cla Meredith P 12
BOS 2002 2 57 Jon Lester P 7
BOS 2005 1 2 Jacoby Ellsbury OF 2
BOS 2005 1 42 Clay Buchholz P 2
BOS 2003 1 17 David Murphy OF 0
BOS 2003 2 49 Abe Alvarez P 0
BOS 2005 1 26 Craig Hansen P 0
NYM 2002 1 15 Scott Kazmir P 41
NYM 2003 7 199 Brian Bannister P 17
NYM 2003 1 12 Lastings Milledge OF 9
NYM 2005 1 9 Mike Pelfrey P 0
NYM 2004 1 3 Philip Humber P 0
SD 2002 1 13 Khalil Greene SS 67
SD 2002 12 355 Paul McAnulty 1B 1
SD 2003 1 4 Tim Stauffer P -2
LAA 2004 1 1 Jered Weaver P 24
LAA 2002 10 294 Howie Kendrick 2B 13
LAA 2003 7 210 Reggie Willits OF 13
LAA 2002 1 12 Joe Saunders P 11
TEX 2003 17 496 Ian Kinsler SS 26
TEX 2002 20 592 Kameron Loe P 14
TEX 2003 4 106 Wes Littleton P 8
TEX 2003 30 886 Scott Feldman P 4
TEX 2003 1 9 John Danks P 4
TEX 2002 15 442 Sam Narron P 0
TEX 2002 1 10 Drew Meyer SS 0
FLA 2002 1 11 Jeremy Hermida OF 20
FLA 2002 4 113 Josh Johnson P 12
FLA 2002 6 173 Scott Olsen P 11
FLA 2004 1 27 Taylor Tankersley P 8
FLA 2004 2 68 Jason Vargas P 3
FLA 2003 2 53 Logan Kensing P 1
FLA 2002 9 263 Eric Reed OF 0
FLA 2002 14 413 Travis Chick P 0
FLA 2002 2 52 Robert Andino SS 0
PIT 2002 7 193 Matt Capps P 19
PIT 2003 1 8 Paul Maholm P 19
PIT 2003 2 45 Tom Gorzelanny P 14
PIT 2003 24 705 Josh Sharpless P 1
PIT 2002 6 163 Brad Eldred INF 0
PIT 2002 1 1 Bryan Bullington P 0
PIT 2002 17 493 Chris Demaria P 0
MIN 2002 2 61 Jesse Crain P 21
MIN 2002 6 182 Pat Neshek P 14
MIN 2003 2 58 Scott Baker P 11
MIN 2005 1 25 Matt Garza P 4
MIN 2004 1 22 Glen Perkins P 2
TAM 2002 1 2 B.J. Upton SS 27
TAM 2003 1 1 Delmon Young OF 18
TAM 2002 3 74 Elijah Dukes OF 2
TAM 2004 13 375 Andy Sonnanstine P 2
TAM 2003 13 368 Chad Orvella SS 2
TAM 2002 10 284 Jason Hammel P -1
KC 2002 1 6 Zack Greinke P 21
KC 2005 1 2 Alex Gordon 3B 12
KC 2004 1 14 Billy Butler 3B 7
KC 2003 2 42 Shane Costa OF 4
KC 2004 1 31 J.P. Howell P 2
KC 2002 5 138 Donnie Murphy SS 2
KC 2002 7 198 Jonah Bayliss P 1
KC 2003 6 162 Ryan Braun P 0
KC 2003 1 30 Mitch Maier C 0
CWS 2002 17 510 Brandon McCarthy P 14
CWS 2002 2 59 Jeremy Reed OF 13
CWS 2004 1 18 Josh Fields 3B 8
CWS 2003 1 15 Brian N. Anderson OF 5
CWS 2002 20 600 Boone Logan P 3
CWS 2002 3 90 Josh Rupe P 3
CWS 2002 1 18 Royce Ring P 1
CWS 2002 8 240 Sean Tracey P 1
CWS 2003 2 52 Ryan Sweeney OF 0
CLE 2003 3 78 Ryan Garko C 18
CLE 2002 1 22 Jeremy Guthrie P 12
CLE 2003 6 168 Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B 10
CLE 2004 1 6 Jeremy Sowers P 7
CLE 2002 2 63 Brian Slocum P 0
PHA 2002 1 17 Cole Hamels P 21
PHA 2003 7 205 Kyle Kendrick P 8
PHA 2003 4 115 Michael Bourn OF 4
PHA 2002 17 509 Scott Mathieson P -1
CHC 2002 4 112 Rich Hill P 13
CHC 2003 6 163 Sean Marshall P 7
HOU 2004 2 64 Hunter Pence OF 16
HOU 2003 2 59 Jason Hirsh P 4
HOU 2004 6 184 Ben Zobrist SS -1
STL 2002 16 492 Brad Thompson P 13
STL 2003 15 455 Anthony Reyes P 3
NYY 2002 8 246 Brad Halsey P 11
NYY 2003 19 574 Jeff Karstens P 2
NYY 2004 1 23 Philip Hughes P 1
NYY 2003 9 274 Tyler Clippard P 1
NYY 2006 1 41 Joba Chamberlain P 2
NYY 2006 1 21 Ian Kennedy P 1
NYY 2003 10 304 T.J. Beam P 0
CIN 2003 1 14 Ryan Wagner P 6
CIN 2002 19 555 Chris Denorfia OF 2
CIN 2002 2 44 Joey Votto 3B 0
SEA 2006 1 5 Brandon Morrow P 6
SEA 2003 6 176 Eric O'Flaherty P 5
SEA 2004 5 153 Mark Lowe P 2
SEA 2003 3 86 Ryan Feierabend P 0
SEA 2003 1 37 Adam Jones SS 0
SEA 2002 30 910 T.J. Bohn OF 0
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