4 September 2007: Cy Young Candidates

Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 03:01 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Let us consider who should be taking home the Cy Young Award this year. In one league, it's a pretty easy choice. In the other, not so much.

It looks pretty cut and dried to me in the National League.

1. Jake Peavy (16-5, 2.10, 184.2 IP, 206 K, 55 BB) - He currently leads the league in all three categories for the pitcher's triple crown (wins, ERA, and strikeouts). He works in one of the great pitcher's parks of all time, but it's what he's done away from home this year that really makes you gasp: 8-0, 1.22 in 11 starts. And while the 16-5 record is impressive enough, he has three Tough Losses (against one cheap win) - he also has four no decisions when he worked at least seven innings and allowed just one run or less. The weakness of the NL notwithstanding, has there been a better pitcher anywhere this year?

2. Brandon Webb (14-10, 2.91, 204 IP, 177 K, 63 BB) - Last year's winner is having another outstanding year. The BOB is one of the better hitter's parks in the league (it's been roughly the same as Coors itself this year). He's also got three Tough Losses this year (and no cheap wins) and of the 57 NL starters who have worked 120 or more innings, 47 of them have received better run support than the 4.18 Webb gets to work with.

3. Brad Penny (14-4, 2.88, 178 IP, 122 K, 62 BB) - Penny has no home-road split worth mentioning (7-2 2.98 at home, 7-2 2.74 on the road) - that, and the fact that he's made four more starts and worked 38 more innings persuades me to rank him above Chris Young of the Padres (who has an ERA of 1.22 at home, 3.59 on the road.). Penny has no Tough Losses and just one Cheap Win, and three outstanding no decisions (7 or more innings, 1 or fewer runs).

Also worthy of mention: Chris Young, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Roy Oswalt - and while I'm generally a little reluctant to consider relief pitchers, Takashi Saito has been fabulous for the Dodgers.

In the AL, Danny Haren jumped to the front of the pack in the first half of the season. As he came back to earth, Erik Bedard of the Orioles emerged as a strong candidate. But Bedard may not pitch again this season. Perennial contender Johan Santana sports a 14-11 record, which seems pretty ordinary, at least by his own otherworldly standards. Five pitchers have 16 wins, but none of them are among the top five in ERA - Sabathia, Lackey, and Beckett are in a tight little knot in the top 10, all having essentially the same excellent season. The winner is probably going to be determined by what happens this month. Until then...

1. Johan Santana (14-11, 3.15, 194 IP, 203 K, 44 BB) - He's still the best. He has seven Tough Losses this season (just one Cheap Win) - he's worked at least six innings in all but two of his starts (when he worked five, in a win against Boston and a loss to Toronto.)

2. Dan Haren (14-6, 2.87, 161 K, 47 BB) - Think Walt Jocketty might like to have this trade back? If we make a list of worst transactions perpetrated by current GMs, this one's probably going near the top of the list, and we haven't even heard from Daric Barton yet. He has 25 Quality Starts, which leads the majors (one more than Peavy).

3. C.C. Sabathia (16-7, 3.24, 211 IP, 182 K, 32 BB) - The big fella leads the world in innings pitched, and only Paul Byrd is less likely to issue a free pass. The 16-7 record could very easily be better. From July 24 through August 24, he went 1-3, 2.13 in six starts - during that stretch he allowed just 12 ER in 50.2 IP, and never more than two in any one of them. He turned 27 in July, and he's got 97 career wins. At the same age, Roger Clemens had 95 wins, Tom Glavine had 73, and Randy Johnson had 24.

Also worthy of mention: Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, J.J. Putz, Erik Bedard.

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