Correct me if I'm wrong, but is it or is it not the Accepted Wisdom that if you want players with high upside you should be looking at high schoolers in the draft? At least with respect to position players.
When did this happen, anyway? Is it a new thing? Should we take it seriously?
I don't actually remember Eddie Collins or Jackie Robinson, a couple of pretty fair college ball players. But I have pretty vivid memories of Dave Winfield and Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt. It turned out they had a bit of upside. I also notice that the only man to win seven MVPs went to Arizona State University (just like Reggie.)
Over the last 20 years, MVP and Cy Young awards have been split perfectly between college players and high school players - high school players account for 42 awards, college players for 42. (Oops, that's 21 years.) Hardly a scientific way to look at the issue, I admit. But anyway, if you had a year good enough to win either of these awards, you must have had a bit of potential. And fulfilled it, for a while.
The awards have been evenly split - college players have won 21 MVPs and 21 Cy Youngs - and so have high school players. The Cy Youngs have been split pretty evenly - high school pitchers have won 10 AL awards and 11 NL awards, college pitchers have won 11 AL and 10 NL. High school players have dominated the AL MVP (16 of 21), college players (hello Mr Bonds!) have dominated the NL MVP (also 16 of 21).
Curiously, the most famous Awful MVP Votes of recent years make no impact at all on these numbers. In the AL, George Bell, Ivan Rodriguez, and Justin Morneau probably should have finished behind Alan Trammel, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Jeter - but they're all considered high school players anyway. In the other league, the most famous miscarriages of justice I can think of (1987 and 1992) both saw one college player (Andre Dawson and Terry Pendleton) chosen over a more deserving college player (Ozzie Smith and Bonds.)
Another piece of Accepted Wisdom is that spending a first round pick on a high school pitcher is a little like buying a lottery ticket, only less likely to pay off. Of the high school pitchers to win Cy Youngs during this period, only Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay were first round picks. I believe Dwight Gooden is the only other high school pitcher taken in the first round to ever win a Cy Young. Glavine and Maddux both went in the second round, out of high school. Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson, who between them account for 13 awards, both went to college.
Anyway, is this really the Accepted Wisdom with respect to position players? The ones who went to college don't have as much upside? Jeff Bagwell turned out to have more upside than anyone imagined, and Ryan Howard's doing OK. I could settle for Jeff Kent and Barry Larkin in the middle of my infield...
Anyway, I'm Just Asking... I'm not a student of the draft by any remote stretch of the imagination.
Although I think I may amuse myself by doing some sniffing around. I'm sure a massive Data Table will result....
Moving along. The subject of Quality Starts came up on the broadcasts, and Pat Tabler remembered the old pitcher (and pitching coach) Stan Williams scoffing at the very concept - 3 runs in 6 innings? that's an ERA of 4.50!
Sigh.
They never complain about a pitcher giving up 6 runs in 5 innings and getting a Win, do they?
For what it's worth, a pitcher's ERA in his Quality Starts is almost always under 2.00 - this year, the Jays starters as a group have an ERA of 1.95 in their Quality Starts. That's 67 starts, and how many times did the starter allow 3 ER in exactly 6 IP? Six times.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20070817223028718