'Capping the Home Run Derby

Monday, July 09 2007 @ 02:48 PM EDT

Contributed by: Leigh

So, I sifted through the results of the past five Home Run Derbies in order to determine if there were any trends...

And really, there aren't.

I defined Home Run Derby success as the percentage of swings that went for home runs. The formula, applied to each of the past five Derbies, was HR/(Outs+HR). I decided to look for correlations were there might, intuitively, be some. I looked at the participants' GB/FB, GB%, LD%, FB%, HR/FB, SLG, ISO during the season in which the Derby took place, as well as each player's current (listed) weight.

Here are the correlations between Derby Success and each variable:
GB/FB: -.03
LD%: +.15
GB%: -.09
FB%: +.03
HR/FB: -.21
SLG: -.10
ISO: -.06
Weight: +.09

Here is the full table:

Player Year Rounds HR HR% GB/FB LD% GB% FB% HR/FB SLG ISO Weight

Abreu 2005 3 41 0.577 1.62 24.10% 47.00% 28.90% 18.00% 0.474 0.289 210

Giambi 2003 2 23 0.535 0.52 21.00% 27.00% 52.00% 19.70% 0.527 0.277 230

Ortiz 2005 2 20 0.500 0.68 22.50% 31.40% 46.10% 21.10% 0.604 0.304 230

Tejada 2004 3 27 0.474 1.37 19.40% 46.50% 34.10% 16.80% 0.534 0.224 215

Pujols 2003 3 26 0.464 1.15 22.50% 41.40% 36.10% 22.50% 0.667 0.308 225

Giambi 2002 3 24 0.444 0.67 25.40% 30.00% 44.60% 20.30% 0.598 0.284 230

Howard 2006 3 23 0.434 0.68 21.00% 32.10% 46.90% 27.60% 0.659 0.346 250

Cabrera 2006 2 15 0.429 1.03 24.50% 38.30% 37.20% 17.90% 0.568 0.229 210

Lee 2005 2 15 0.429 0.71 20.30% 33.20% 46.50% 12.70% 0.487 0.222 240

Anderson 2003 3 22 0.423 1.21 20.20% 43.60% 36.10% 14.40% 0.541 0.226 225

Wright 2006 3 22 0.423 0.83 19.50% 36.50% 44.00% 12.40% 0.531 0.22 200

Berkman 2004 3 21 0.412 1.03 21.20% 40.00% 38.80% 17.20% 0.566 0.25 220

Dye 2006 1 7 0.412 0.98 20.10% 39.50% 40.40% 25.40% 0.622 0.306 235

Palmeiro 2004 2 14 0.412 0.71 21.10% 32.70% 46.20% 10.00% 0.436 0.178 190

Rodriguez 2005 3 20 0.400 1.6 22.80% 47.50% 29.70% 11.30% 0.444 0.169 195

Ortiz 2006 2 13 0.394 0.78 16.70% 36.40% 46.80% 26.10% 0.636 0.349 230

Konerko 2002 2 12 0.375 1.16 20.40% 42.70% 36.90% 14.50% 0.498 0.195 220

Sosa 2002 3 18 0.375 1.12 20.00% 42.30% 37.70% 31.20% 0.594 0.306 230

Bonds 2004 2 11 0.355 0.74 19.40% 34.30% 46.30% 29.00% 0.812 0.45 230

Choi 2005 1 5 0.333 1.06 25.80% 38.10% 36.10% 17.00% 0.453 0.2 235

Jones 2005 1 5 0.333 1 16.00% 42.00% 42.00% 25.20% 0.575 0.312 210

Sexson 2002 2 10 0.333 1.34 21.50% 45.00% 33.60% 19.70% 0.504 0.225 235

Sosa 2004 1 5 0.333 1.12 20.10% 42.20% 37.60% 26.70% 0.517 0.264 230

Edmonds 2003 2 8 0.286 0.72 20.20% 33.50% 46.30% 26.20% 0.617 0.342 210

Sheffield 2003 1 4 0.286 1.36 19.70% 46.30% 34.00% 21.70% 0.604 0.274 215

Thome 2004 1 4 0.286 0.83 17.70% 37.30% 45.00% 25.50% 0.581 0.307 245

Berkman 2006 1 3 0.231 0.93 19.20% 39.00% 41.80% 24.60% 0.621 0.306 220

Blalock 2004 1 3 0.231 0.71 18.30% 34.00% 47.70% 13.90% 0.5 0.224 200

Hunter 2002 1 3 0.231 1.54 17.90% 49.80% 32.30% 20.10% 0.524 0.235 215

Ortiz 2004 1 3 0.231 0.75 19.50% 34.60% 46.00% 19.50% 0.603 0.302 230

Tejada 2006 1 3 0.231 1.89 22.10% 51.00% 27.00% 15.50% 0.498 0.168 215

Bonds 2002 1 2 0.167 0.64 22.10% 30.40% 47.50% 27.10% 0.799 0.429 230

Delgado 2003 1 2 0.167 0.92 27.00% 35.00% 38.00% 25.20% 0.593 0.291 240

Rodriguez 2002 1 2 0.167 0.89 19.00% 38.10% 42.90% 26.40% 0.623 0.324 225

Teixeira 2005 1 2 0.167 1 22.20% 39.00% 38.80% 21.20% 0.575 0.273 220

Berkman 2002 1 1 0.091 1.03 21.00% 40.10% 38.80% 23.50% 0.578 0.285 220

Glaus 2006 1 1 0.091 0.69 16.50% 34.10% 49.40% 18.70% 0.513 0.261 240

Sexson 2003 1 1 0.091 1.4 19.80% 46.70% 33.50% 29.20% 0.548 0.276 235

Bay 2005 1 0 0.000 0.88 23.80% 35.60% 40.60% 17.00% 0.559 0.254 205

Boone 2003 1 0 0.000 1.22 19.20% 44.40% 36.30% 19.10% 0.535 0.241 190

Correlation to HR%

-0.03 0.15 -0.09 0.03 -0.21 -0.10 -0.06 0.09

Essentially, then, there is nothing significant.

It is interesting to note that, of this season's participants, Ryan Howard leads in both LD% and Weight. Our man Rios is second-to-last in LD% and is the lightest.

The moral of the story, I guess, is that everybody has a shot. There are favourites and long-shots, however:

Fielder +378
Howard +253
Morneau +633
Guerrero +942
Ordonez +1300
Pujols +407
Rios +1400
Holliday +1000

Also note that, according to the Bill James Handbook, San Francisco has a lefty HR Park Factor (2004-2006) of 74 and a righty HR factor of 90.

What do Bauxites think? Who will be this season's HR Derby Champ?

*Batted ball data is from FanGraphs, odds are from a popular gaming site (entertainment purposes only, especially for Americans).

19 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20070709144855736

Player	Year	Rounds	HR	HR%	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	SLG	ISO	Weight
Abreu	2005	3	41	0.577	1.62	24.10%	47.00%	28.90%	18.00%	0.474	0.289	210
Giambi	2003	2	23	0.535	0.52	21.00%	27.00%	52.00%	19.70%	0.527	0.277	230
Ortiz	2005	2	20	0.500	0.68	22.50%	31.40%	46.10%	21.10%	0.604	0.304	230
Tejada	2004	3	27	0.474	1.37	19.40%	46.50%	34.10%	16.80%	0.534	0.224	215
Pujols	2003	3	26	0.464	1.15	22.50%	41.40%	36.10%	22.50%	0.667	0.308	225
Giambi	2002	3	24	0.444	0.67	25.40%	30.00%	44.60%	20.30%	0.598	0.284	230
Howard	2006	3	23	0.434	0.68	21.00%	32.10%	46.90%	27.60%	0.659	0.346	250
Cabrera	2006	2	15	0.429	1.03	24.50%	38.30%	37.20%	17.90%	0.568	0.229	210
Lee	2005	2	15	0.429	0.71	20.30%	33.20%	46.50%	12.70%	0.487	0.222	240
Anderson	2003	3	22	0.423	1.21	20.20%	43.60%	36.10%	14.40%	0.541	0.226	225
Wright	2006	3	22	0.423	0.83	19.50%	36.50%	44.00%	12.40%	0.531	0.22	200
Berkman	2004	3	21	0.412	1.03	21.20%	40.00%	38.80%	17.20%	0.566	0.25	220
Dye	2006	1	7	0.412	0.98	20.10%	39.50%	40.40%	25.40%	0.622	0.306	235
Palmeiro	2004	2	14	0.412	0.71	21.10%	32.70%	46.20%	10.00%	0.436	0.178	190
Rodriguez	2005	3	20	0.400	1.6	22.80%	47.50%	29.70%	11.30%	0.444	0.169	195
Ortiz	2006	2	13	0.394	0.78	16.70%	36.40%	46.80%	26.10%	0.636	0.349	230
Konerko	2002	2	12	0.375	1.16	20.40%	42.70%	36.90%	14.50%	0.498	0.195	220
Sosa	2002	3	18	0.375	1.12	20.00%	42.30%	37.70%	31.20%	0.594	0.306	230
Bonds	2004	2	11	0.355	0.74	19.40%	34.30%	46.30%	29.00%	0.812	0.45	230
Choi	2005	1	5	0.333	1.06	25.80%	38.10%	36.10%	17.00%	0.453	0.2	235
Jones	2005	1	5	0.333	1	16.00%	42.00%	42.00%	25.20%	0.575	0.312	210
Sexson	2002	2	10	0.333	1.34	21.50%	45.00%	33.60%	19.70%	0.504	0.225	235
Sosa	2004	1	5	0.333	1.12	20.10%	42.20%	37.60%	26.70%	0.517	0.264	230
Edmonds	2003	2	8	0.286	0.72	20.20%	33.50%	46.30%	26.20%	0.617	0.342	210
Sheffield	2003	1	4	0.286	1.36	19.70%	46.30%	34.00%	21.70%	0.604	0.274	215
Thome	2004	1	4	0.286	0.83	17.70%	37.30%	45.00%	25.50%	0.581	0.307	245
Berkman	2006	1	3	0.231	0.93	19.20%	39.00%	41.80%	24.60%	0.621	0.306	220
Blalock	2004	1	3	0.231	0.71	18.30%	34.00%	47.70%	13.90%	0.5	0.224	200
Hunter	2002	1	3	0.231	1.54	17.90%	49.80%	32.30%	20.10%	0.524	0.235	215
Ortiz	2004	1	3	0.231	0.75	19.50%	34.60%	46.00%	19.50%	0.603	0.302	230
Tejada	2006	1	3	0.231	1.89	22.10%	51.00%	27.00%	15.50%	0.498	0.168	215
Bonds	2002	1	2	0.167	0.64	22.10%	30.40%	47.50%	27.10%	0.799	0.429	230
Delgado	2003	1	2	0.167	0.92	27.00%	35.00%	38.00%	25.20%	0.593	0.291	240
Rodriguez	2002	1	2	0.167	0.89	19.00%	38.10%	42.90%	26.40%	0.623	0.324	225
Teixeira	2005	1	2	0.167	1	22.20%	39.00%	38.80%	21.20%	0.575	0.273	220
Berkman	2002	1	1	0.091	1.03	21.00%	40.10%	38.80%	23.50%	0.578	0.285	220
Glaus	2006	1	1	0.091	0.69	16.50%	34.10%	49.40%	18.70%	0.513	0.261	240
Sexson	2003	1	1	0.091	1.4	19.80%	46.70%	33.50%	29.20%	0.548	0.276	235
Bay	2005	1	0	0.000	0.88	23.80%	35.60%	40.60%	17.00%	0.559	0.254	205
Boone	2003	1	0	0.000	1.22	19.20%	44.40%	36.30%	19.10%	0.535	0.241	190
Correlation to HR%					-0.03	0.15	-0.09	0.03	-0.21	-0.10	-0.06	0.09