Hold on a Second, Joe

Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 02:58 PM EDT

Contributed by: Leigh

In a column at Baseball Prospectus yesterday, Joe Sheehan was highly critical of Jays’ General Manager J.P. Ricciardi.

I am not here to “take sides” on this, save for one of Sheehan’s statements that I will present research on below.

Sheehan makes some valid points (that 2004 appears to have been a turning point in Ricciardi’s style), some specious ones (that 2007 is a lost season – it’s still June, Joe), and in at least one instance appears to be arguing with himself (“It’s not the first time Ricciardi has made big contract commitments that didn’t produce much value. In the Spring of 2003, he signed reigning Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske and center fielder Vernon Wells to five year contracts that covered their arbitration seasons… I praised the deals and I’d do so again”)

I have my own sore points with the way the team is constructed relative to the rosters of Ricciardi’s early years, especially with regard to patching holes. Jason Phillips is not the new Greg Myers, Royce Clayton is not the new Mike Bordick, Jason Smith is not the new Frank Menechino, and Howie Clark is not the new Howi… oh wait.

Here is the statement of Sheehan's that gets to me: "... a peek at the 25-man roster shows just Aaron Hill, Casey Janssen, and Shaun Marcum as farm products acquired since 2002 having a positive impact in big league ballgames."

Those three players have been very good this season, Joe, and 2002 is not that far in the past. Most teams are getting very little impact from farm products acquired since 2002. How many of MLB's 30 teams are getting more positive impact from such players? One would assume from Sheehan's statement that the answer is at the very least 15 (he did say "just") and more likely in the mid-20s. The real answer? 7.

Here are the criteria for eligibility in our little study here: the player must have made his major league debut with his current team (or else they wouldn't have been "farm products"), no straight-to-MLB Japanese imports (again, "farm products") and the player must have been acquired (traded for, drafted, signed, etc.) since 2002. For "positive impact in big league ballgames", we'll use Win Shares Above Bench, from Hardballtimes (only players with 1 or more WSAB in 2007).

I'll present the table to you without further comment, except to say that it measures precisely what Sheehan described, but shows that in fact the Jays' kids are nothing to sneeze at.

[Edited to add: I should have mentioned that I wasn't really trying to prove anything about the Jays five-year track record of player development. Frankly, tallying up the WSAB of all the qualifiers in mid-June doesn't really tell us very much, if anything, about the managerial acumen in the front office. It's only relevant to what Sheehan wrote, farm products acquired since 2002 having a positive impact in big league ballgames.]

Team Qualifying Players WSAB
Arizona Pena, Jackson, Snyder, Owings, Reynolds, Drew, Quentin, Young 19
Detroit Granderson, Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, Zumaya 17
Milwaukee Fielder, Villanueva, Weeks, Braun, Gwynn 17
Cleveland Sizemore, Betancourt, Garko, Perez, Mastny 16
Tampa Bay Upton, Young, Kazmir, Sonnanstine 16
Los Angeles (N) Martin, Billingsley, Kemp, Ethier, Abreu, Broxton, Loney 16
Washington Church, Zimmerman, Bergmann, Cordero, Flores, Rivera 14
Toronto Hill, Janssen, Marcum, Thigpen, Frasor, Vermilyea 13
Oakland Swisher, Blanton, Street, Buck 13
Seattle Sherrill, Betancourt, Morrow, O'Flaherty, Hernandez, Green 13
Los Angeles (A) Willits, Moseley, Saunders, Weaver 12
Minnesota Neshek, Guerrier, Bonser, Perkins, Bartlett, Slowey 12
Atlanta Francouer, James, Moylan, McCann, Saltalamacchia, Escobar 12
Colorado Francis, Spilborghs, Tulowitzki, Iannetta 10
Boston Pedroia, Papelbon 9
Chicago (N) Hill, Marshall, Pagan, Fontenot, Cherry 9
Florida Uggla, Willis, De Aza, Sanchez, Olsen 9
Chicago (A) Jenks, Danks, Logan 8
Kansas City Teahen, Buck, Soria 8
Pittsburgh Gorzelanny, Capps 8
Baltimore Burres, Loewen, Ray, Markakis 7
Philadelphia Hamels, Bourn 7
San Francisco Cain, Ortmeier, Lewis, Correia 6
Cincinnati Hamilton, Coutlangus, Belisle, McBeth 5
Houston Pence, Scott 5
Texas Laird, Francisco, Kinsler 4
New York (N) Smith, Feliciano 3
St. Louis Wainwright 3
New York (A) Hughes 1
San Diego Greene 1

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