College Hitters

Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 09:00 AM EDT

The draft is less than a month away. Time to look to see how the top college hitters are doing since the last time we checked in.

Overall, it's thought to be a weak college position player draft this year. Matt Wieters is definitely at the top, but after that there's no sure top 10 picks. There are a decent group of catchers to look at when the Jays select in the 1st and sandwich rounds.


Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	227	0.366	0.470	0.581	0.7	11.6%
2006	259	0.355	0.480	0.606	0.7	12.0%
2007	184	0.370	0.496	0.625	0.7	12.8%

Wieters, a switch hitter, is considered one of the top players in the draft and it's not too hard to see why. The only way he drops out of the top 3 is if signability becomes an issue.


Beau Mills, 3B/1B, Lewis-Clark (Idaho) State

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	216	0.319	0.424	0.699	1.3	16.0%
2006	200	0.355	0.411	0.675	1.8	14.2%
2007	212	0.462		1.000

Mills transfered to Lewis-Clark after 2 years at Fresno State. Lewis-Clark is a step down from Div I baseball (and as such has limited stats), but you can see Mills is crushing the ball - his Slg% is 1.000! Mills is the son of current Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills.


Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2004	130	0.285	0.371	0.646	3.0	26.2%
2005	265	0.328	0.438	0.698	1.5	20.2%
2006	158	0.259	0.410	0.538	1.2	17.1%
2007	152	0.434	0.588	0.875	0.4	6.7%

LaPorta struggled with injuries last year and decided to go back to school for his senior season to raise his draft stock. Well, it's looking like that is paying off now. He's doing everything at the plate. Note the power increase and the huge drop in strikeouts.



JP Arencibia, C, Tennessee

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	283	0.322	0.379	0.534	1.5	11.9%
2006	216	0.352	0.419	0.583	1.5	12.2%
2007	157	0.306	0.447	0.516	1.1	16.7%

His numbers have dropped a little bit this year. Nothing significant, but you like to see a nice upward progression. The increase in Ks is a bit of a concern as well. Throwing out baserunners isn't his forte - they have about an 80% success rate on him.


Mitch Canham, C, Oregon St

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	160	0.325	0.423	0.531	1.5	19.7%
2006	224	0.299	0.390	0.496	1.5	17.2%
2007	158	0.361	0.488	0.608	0.7	11.6%

Speaking of upward progression Canham is having a great year. Lots of walks, good pop, and was on the College World Series winner in 2006. And he's a lefty hitting catcher to boot. He apparently has an arm problem so it's possible that he might not stick at catcher over the long run. His coach calls him "the best leader in the country".


Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	153	0.294	0.347	0.477	3.1	20.4%
2006	228	0.276	0.331	0.487	2.7	16.5%
2007	198	0.333	0.438	0.561	0.8	11.4%

This is the type of improvement I like to see - everything is improved across the board. Last year he threw out 40% of basestealers and was an All Star in the Cape League last summer.


Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	220	0.350	0.386	0.450	2.8	14.1%
2006	235	0.366	0.412	0.481	0.8	5.9%
2007	139	0.317	0.336	0.460	5.3	11.2%

Borbon had a foot injury earlier in the year that may have hindered his performance. Regardless, the plate discipline has slipped considerably from last year. He's considered a leadoff hitter, but I'm not sure he has enough power to hit at the top of a lineup.


Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma St

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	239	0.343	0.409	0.531	2.0	20.1%
2007	190	0.342	0.446	0.574	1.2	18.3%

Mangini led the Cape league in batting average last year so that'll be a point in his favor - the Jays have traditionally liked players who've done well on the Cape with wood bats. You'd like to see more power with that strikeout rate, but the left handed hitter seems like he might be someone the Jays would look at with their first sandwich pick if he's still around.


Todd Frazier, SS/OF, Rutgers

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	220	0.295	0.392	0.505	1.3	16.6%
2006	227	0.366	0.471	0.599	1.0	15.2%
2007	190	0.379	0.502	0.758	0.9	18.3%

Well, those numbers certainly look nice. Frazier is likely moving to the OF or 3B.


Josh Horton, SS, North Carolina

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	193	0.347	0.398	0.466	1.1	9.0%
2006	271	0.395	0.455	0.542	0.8	9.1%
2007	169	0.331	0.463	0.527	0.2	3.8%

His statistical profile is similar to Russ Adams' last year at UNC (.370/.476/.555). He makes ridiculous contact - I can't remember seeing a K% so low before.


Kyle Russell, OF, Texas

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	163	0.276	0.365	0.546	3.2	29.3%
2007	187	0.358	0.464	0.877	1.5	23.7%

Holy power surge, Batman. The Ks are high, but so are the HRs. He's put himself on the radar this spring. Russell is a draft eligible sophomore.


Grant Desme, OF, Cal Poly

Year	AB	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2005	105	0.267	0.316	0.371	3.4	23.9%
2006	195	0.287	0.349	0.482	2.6	22.8%
2007	122	0.393	0.479	0.762	1.3	18.2%

Speaking of power surges, here's another one.

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The Jays select at #16, 21, 38, 45, 56, 86, 89 in the first two rounds (including a supplemental round which is 35 picks long).

In the first round the Jays could reasonably be assumed to have interest in Mills, LaPorta, and Canham. From what I've read the Giants seem to have interest in MIlls at #10, but if he got to the Jays at #16 I'd like to see them take him.

Players listed after Canham are most likely to be selected in the sandwich round. If the Jays don't go with a catcher in the first round I think Donaldson would be a possibility as well as Mangini (who might not last until 38).

Baseball America has some short summaries of the top players in their draft tracker.

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